Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

[Metwannabe]

Here's the final one thru 60 hr. About a third an inch of ice on the National Blend of Models FRAM in GSO. Some glazing now extends down into the upstate of SC.

View attachment 75609

The trend....

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That’s ugly

 

[Spurs up]

another 35 to 38 degree rain here. I'm bout to lose my s@@t!!!!

 

[Stormlover]

Thundersnow watch in far north Alabama tomorrow night, lol

 

[SnowNiner]

Yeah, north of the Triad and the Triangle into the escarpment (40 north folks) look like they have a shot of a winter storm here. For MBY and CLT I don't believe in freezing rain in the 30s. It would have to tick several degrees colder for me to think about anything serious IMO. Just another beautiful cold rain. The coldest possible!

 

[ryan1234]

That’s ugly View attachment 75621

Interesting to see higher totals on our side of town but less on the west side...

 

[Myfrotho704_]

3km is colder aswell vs last run, a little bit warmer then the 12k, by 1 degree in many locations

 

[StormStalker]

HUN lastest discussion was not very optimistic about any wintry weather with this system.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Trends today = fookin ugly

 

[jjwxman]

I wonder if RAH will add Davidson, Randolph, Chatham, Wake to the WSW. Surely I would think Davidson and Randolph. The northern half or third of those counties will likely experience warning criteria ice.

 

[Webberweather53]

Interesting to see higher totals on our side of town but less on the west side...

Downstream advection of slightly warmer air from the Charlotte metro area is probably playing into that and why areas west and southwest of town are a degree or two warmer than they otherwise would be. Little details like this can actually matter a lot and have been discussed in various pieces of scientific literature.

 

[NWMSGuy]

hrrr is awesome View attachment 75610

If this HRRR has legs in MS this is hours upon hours here of precip.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Downstream advection of slightly warmer air from the Charlotte metro area is probably playing into that and why areas west and southwest of town are a degree or two warmer than they otherwise would be. Little details like this can actually matter a lot and have been discussed in various pieces of scientific literature.

Gotta love UHI

 

[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

Here's the final one thru 60 hr. About a third an inch of ice on the National Blend of Models FRAM in GSO. Some glazing now extends down into the upstate of SC.

View attachment 75609

I think watches could soon be added one county south and east of the current ones based on this map. Pockets of .25 are showing up further south. They might even throw Wake in there since the NW edge is borderline watch/warning criteria.

 

[mrdaddyman]

Here's the final one thru 60 hr. About a third an inch of ice on the National Blend of Models FRAM in GSO. Some glazing now extends down into the upstate of SC.

View attachment 75609

Looks like some nasty trends here. I am right on the line here on the Johnston/Wake border. The NBM must still be playing catch-up for my area because it is showing almost nothing here. Just about every model is showing freezing rain for me now. The RGEM and GGEM are even showing over .5" accrual here, but I realize that they are cold biased.

In the mean time, 3K NAM continues to march SE.

 

[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

I wonder if RAH will add Davidson, Randolph, Chatham, Wake to the WSW. Surely I would think Davidson and Randolph. The northern half or third of those counties will likely experience warning criteria ice.

Dang. Didn't see this before I posted. Agreed. ?

 

[Webberweather53]

I think watches could soon be added one county south and east of the current ones based on this map. Pockets of .25 are showing up further south. They might even throw Wake in their since the NW edge is borderline watch/warning criteria.

Yeah, for continuity w/ other neighboring offices and given the trends we've seen on the models today, I'd imagine that winter storm watches are probably coming for Franklin, Wake, Chatham, Randolph, & Davidson county.

 

[accu35]

Didn't know if anyone post the UK

 

[Webberweather53]

Yeah, for continuity w/ other neighboring offices and given the trends we've seen on the models today, I'd imagine that winter storm watches are probably coming for Franklin, Wake, Chatham, Randolph, & Davidson county.

I think NWS RAH's afternoon package comes out around 4pm or so, we'll likely find out in a little bit if they think what they're seeing warrants winter storm watches in those counties. If I was working the forecast desk, I'd definitely say yes.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

NAM still has plenty of elevated instability, which may mean thunder with freezing rain but also mean convection dragging warmer air down, you can actually see pockets of warmer sfc temps on the NAM under these but they instantly lower back with lighter precip