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Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

ICON not looking so cold biased anymore eh? This thing is lookin scary right now and we still have time for these models to really catch hold of the real CAD signal .. the last storm trended about 3-4 degrees lower the day of ... I’m worried now .. happy birthday to me I guess
 
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WSNC said:
View attachment 75632View attachment 75633
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If trends continue we'll be talking about more sleet at go time.
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Need to cut back the intensity of warm nose by at least 5-6°C to be talking about sleet at this time frame in the Triad. When you have a warm nose of 10°C+ at 850mb no less, you're basically guaranteed ZR no matter what the low-level cold is like because the hydrometeors simply don't have enough time to cool off before reaching the sfc. Definitely has to be one of the strongest warm noses I've seen for a CAD setup like this.

1613508058412.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Need to cut back the intensity of warm nose by at least 5-6°C to be talking about sleet at this time frame in the Triad. Definitely has to be one of the strongest warm noses I've seen for a CAD setup like this.

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Reminds me of a sounding you’d see with a southern plains ice storm
 
The RGEM and Canadian are cold biased but models have been trending closer and closer to those solutions with each run and we have another 3-4 to go before we get into nowcasting and seeing trends so there's still room for things to drop another couple degrees.
 
I guess I'm going to try to purchase a generator tonight if any are left in stock. I almost purchased one last week but decided against it at the last minute. I hate to part with the money (I'm so tight I squeak when I walk) if I only need it for a few hours.

We were without power for about 12 hours and it wasn't bad. But I have a church member who was without it for 48 hours.
 
Poimen said:
I guess I'm going to try to purchase a generator tonight if any are left in stock. I almost purchased one last week but decided against it at the last minute. I hate to part with the money (I'm so tight I squeak when I walk) if I only need it for a few hours.
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Get it and return it if you don’t have to use it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
Trends on NWP today certainly seem to generally suggest folks that were spared by the last ice storm between the Triad & Triangle areas in places like Burlington, Chapel Hill, Hillsborough, & north Durham may not be so lucky this time around
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....or lucky depending on how you look at it
 
GaWx said:
Look at the bright side. At least you're going to get ice instead of plain rain.

Meanwhile, here's the latest DFW NWS forecast, which has upped tomorrow's snow/sleet accum. from 1" to 1-3" with ice under 1/10":


TXZ119-170015-
DALLAS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF DALLAS
113 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
CST THURSDAY...

THIS AFTERNOON
CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT.
TONIGHT
A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING, THEN SNOW WITH
POSSIBLE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION. ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 17. EAST
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
WEDNESDAY
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW, SLEET WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. COLD
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
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That’s way down from what they were thinking a day or two ago! I hope ? gets his snow somehow
 
Webberweather53 said:
I think NWS RAH's afternoon package comes out around 4pm or so, we'll likely find out in a little bit if they think what they're seeing warrants winter storm watches in those counties. If I was working the forecast desk, I'd definitely say yes.
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Looks like they will probably go with advisories for those areas just judging by the AFD

This will create the possibility of freezing
rain for portions of the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal
Plain, with rain elsewhere. Significant icing to one-quarter of an
inch is possible mainly north of I-85, with lesser amounts expected
for the lower areas of the northern Piedmont. All areas should have
rain as the main precipitation type by Thursday evening as
temperatures increase to above freezing. A Winter Storm Watch
remains in effect and a Winter Weather Advisory will likely be
needed for areas elsewhere that icing is forecast.
 
Poimen said:
I guess I'm going to try to purchase a generator tonight if any are left in stock. I almost purchased one last week but decided against it at the last minute. I hate to part with the money (I'm so tight I squeak when I walk) if I only need it for a few hours.

We were without power for about 12 hours and it wasn't bad. But I have a church member who was without it for 48 hours.
Click to expand...
Best $500 I've ever spent. Picked one up in December 2002 with a newborn in house. Power was out for a week. Never had any issues with it to this day. Great to have when you need it and better piece of mind when you think you might.
 
accu35 said:
sn10_acc.conus.png
Didn't know if anyone post the UK
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Damn, Roxboro crushed!
 
Tarheel1 said:
That’s way down from what they were thinking a day or two ago! I hope ? gets his snow somehow
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Yeah, qpf was ~.50" then. Now it is about or slightly more than half that. By the way, this is progged to be the "warmer" storm with high teens to low 20s vs the other one snowing with mainly 10-16 F and as low as 6 F! That was the coldest big snow there on record.
'
 
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