Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

[Deleted member 1449]

So the GFS just went bonkers for all of central NC. It has my backyard with a temp of 28 Thursday afternoon. There's your sign.

 

[Deleted member 1449]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

DAMN the GFS is colder, uh oh

 

[NCSNOW]

GFS Comes south, lines up with Canadian suite now:

 

[superjames1992]

Starting to look like this could be a big issue even here, and there’s no way we sleet from this one. That warm nose is FIERY.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

You can even see that same anomaly on the GFS near Charlotte, wow that’s cool

 

[SouthGarnerSleet]

GFS Comes south, lines up with Canadian suite now:

View attachment 75652

and the GFS v16 disagrees ...

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This is a really bad, and I mean really bad trend

 

[Webberweather53]

and the GFS v16 disagrees ...

The GFS v16 is completely on an island atm, I'd ignore it at this point

 

[BelmontWX79]

I l

You can even see that same anomaly on the GFS near Charlotte, wow that’s cool View attachment 75653

I live in that little notch about a mile south of 85. I usually run about a degree or two lower than the airport during CAD so this will be interesting to see how this plays out.

 

[Steven_1974]

This is a really bad, and I mean really bad trend View attachment 75654

Yeah, really hope that doesn't verify. We don't need a crippling ice storm.

 

[WSNC]

I know gfs doesn't do well with warm nose, but still holding out hope we can trend this to more sleet on front end.

 

[Ethan80963]

IDK how much it matters but todays temps didn't get up to the forecasted temps. Running 43 I think forecast was 47.

Edit: Forecast was 49

 

[NCHighCountryWX]

The GFS v16 is completely on an island atm, I'd ignore it at this point

View attachment 75655

Dross: Btw the new GFS v16 coming out in a few weeks should handle cold air damming a little better, over all not much better that current version but removes warm bias in 2m temps past 24 hours.

 

[Windergawx]

Does anyone see the wedge getting down into the favorite car areas like gainesville ?

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Does anyone see the wedge getting down into the favorite car areas like gainesville ?

I don’t see the wedge getting anywhere past the nc/sc border at most

 

[Webberweather53]

That awkward moment when a SW sfc wind gives you cold advection in the Carolinas

lol

 

[Avalanche]

That awkward moment when a SW sfc wind gives you cold advection in the Carolinas

lol

View attachment 75663

All that snowpack in Mexico being advected north.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I really wonder if snowpack up north starts reflecting with colder solutions or already is

 

[NorthDFWwx]

HRRR now showing 4-6" in Dallas' northern suburbs.