• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

I am scheduled to drive up to Blowing Rock on Friday afternoon. Do those who live near the area think the roads will be impassable during the mid-day hours?
 
alfoman said:
I am scheduled to drive up to Blowing Rock on Friday afternoon. Do those who live near the area think the roads will be impassable during the mid-day hours?
Click to expand...

I've been up to Boone, Blowing Rock chasing snow several times this winter. I usually go up 421 through Boone. It's always been well brined and plowed on the main roads. It looks like it will be near or below freezing most of the day Friday. I'm driving a 4wd 4Runner that is equipped for the slush though. You're going to have to deal with ice/slush in the parking lots. If your vehicle isn't equipped, I wouldn't go Friday. If it is; you'll be fine.
 
Regarding DFW, the 18Z GFS suite is a little colder at 850 and suggests the storm will be nearly pure snow in/near the city and north with no more than a short period of sleet mainly late. So, the high end of the 1-3" with ~2.5-3" looking more likely now imo. We'll see!

@Brent @SouthATLwx this is good news for purer snow event.
 
Last edited:
SnowNiner said:
Me too. Well see what happens. Unless the models go a good bit colder, I bet Mecklenburg will go over to WWA in the morning.
Click to expand...

The model runs have been getting colder each run and more south as well. That's why Meck is under a watch. Sure, they could change to a WWA, but with the recent trends, I wouldn't count on it. The Euro is horrible with CAD events and it has trended more south with each run. Like I said before, that cold air to our north is no joke. And we have snowpack. Models never tend to do well when it comes to small but important details like that. This is one more south move away from putting a large portion of the state's largest cities in a sig zr event IMO. And honestly given the trends it would not surprise me to see some more southward trends as time progresses. I am glad they put us under a watch. Better safe than sorry.
 
Modeling trends have been friendly for a N AL front end thump, perhaps of snow. NWS HUN was perhaps too optimistic in parts of their forecast for Monday so it seems as though they might be playing it a bit more conservative. The HRRR seems to have nailed the impressive warmup Monday, so it may make some sense to pay some attention to what it is showing. The 18z showed snow for you and perhaps snow for me.
I think you will get a nice front end thump followed by a warmup to run while I see some token flakes and then rain. But what do I know?
 
ryan1234 said:
The model runs have been getting colder each run and more south as well. That's why Meck is under a watch. Sure, they could change to a WWA, but with the recent trends, I wouldn't count on it. The Euro is horrible with CAD events and it has trended more south with each run. Like I said before, that cold air to our north is no joke. And we have snowpack. Models never tend to do well when it comes to small but important details like that. This is one more south move away from putting a large portion of the state's largest cities in a sig zr event IMO. And honestly given the trends it would not surprise me to see some more southward trends as time progresses. I am glad they put us under a watch. Better safe than sorry.
Click to expand...
One thing I’ve noticed this evening is how these local tv stations futurecast models seem to be coming in on the cold side and putting the ZR well into the SC upstate.... they really don’t have the freezing line moving north much until the precip is almost cleared. I’ve noticed over the years that these in-house models often run a bit warm, so if they keep coming in on the colder side this might be a bigger issue further south
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top