Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

[Nomanslandva]

Is 1-3 inches of snow before switching a good bet here in Roanoke, VA? Currently thinking somewhere between Nam and gfs. Nam IMO is too aggressive with warm nose up here but gfs not aggressive enough.

I will keep an eye on HRRR but think the NAM is better. 18Z 3k had 0 snow here. I will say the warm nose dialed back for the first several hours of that run so maybe the trend is our friend ?

 

[Ron Burgundy]

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Congrats to the northern half of Dade County!!! ???

 

[Stephenb888]

Ah looks like I’m safe as usual from the winter weather. I could use a nice cold rain for the 20th time this winter.

 

[ryan1234]

One thing I’ve noticed this evening is how these local tv stations futurecast models seem to be coming in on the cold side and putting the ZR well into the SC upstate.... they really don’t have the freezing line moving north much until the precip is almost cleared. I’ve noticed over the years that these in-house models often run a bit warm, so if they keep coming in on the colder side this might be a bigger issue further south

I haven't had a chance to look at any of the local station's forecast models but if that's the case then that is not good news. CLT and the Triangle sit in an odd spot when it comes to CAD. We have had some of our most sig wx events due to CAD. Yes, the Triad tends to do better but I feel like models underestimate the amount of cold air available- thus putting our area's in a greater unknown. Will this be one of those situations? Maybe. One thing I can say is that models have been horrible with CAD events this winter and while we've had nothing sig thus far, I just have an eerie feeling about this one.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

@Myfrotho704_ do you have any soundings from the 18z euro? Checking to see if that warm nose is cool off any. Looks like it might have a little since there is some sleet showing up.

Unfortunately nah I can’t get the soundings, only pivotal has that with 12z/00z, but looking at 850s/925s, it was similar or perhaps a little cooler then 12z

 

[Stormlover]

Cut from AFD


Some good news, while the initial precip will likely be a wintry mix
of snow/sleet/FZRA, it will quickly transition to all rain sometime
overnight as a result of strong WAA between 700mb and 850mb. Early
Thursday morning, nearly all of the forecast area should be at or
slightly above freezing. Latest forecast only calls for a few
hundredths of ice and less than an inch of snow mainly across NW
Alabama. The rest of the area will get only rain, which I know is a
welcome site for all across the Tennessee Valley. The morning model
guidance supports this warmer trend and hence these values are less
than the previous forecast package.

Rain will come to an end Thursday afternoon/evening from west to east
as the cold front swings through. The cold air should arrive after
the precip ends, but cannot rule out a few postfrontal flurries.
Another cold night Thursday with overnight lows in the lower 20s

I think they have realized they screwed up, Already talking about issuing something before the late news, expected to be a watch for northwest ala/south tenn. That was a horrible forecast and discussion.

 

[Montanasnow30]

Looks like a another small shift south for north Alabama and Mississippi..

@DarkKnight do you think if the south shift continues Tuscaloosa and Birmingham might get in on the action?

 

[iGRXY]

Down to 35 and ahead of schedule as far as the models go.

 

[DadOfJax]

wheres my north bama peeps??want your insight

WAA, HRRR sucks, mostly a cold rain...maybe a front end thump of sleet and freezing rain for the 4 NW’n counties. Now....everyone fire away again...

 

[LukeBarrette]

??

 

[DadOfJax]

@DarkKnight do you think if the south shift continues Tuscaloosa and Birmingham might get in on the action?

Remember the south shift on the HRRR leading up to yesterday’s event?.....Yea, we know how that went.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

What will the NAMS do tonight ... we will soon find out if they continue the same trend

 

[Myfrotho704_]

What will the NAMS do tonight ... we will soon find out if they continue the same trend

I expect the HRRR to be colder at 00z, I almost wanna bet a million dollars, if it is I am granted being a southernwx moderator

 

[Flurry]

Looks like a another small shift south for north Alabama and Mississippi..

The last 2 events were just a little West & North of “The Ham”....Maybe this will be an I-59 track


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[ryan1234]

View attachment 75689??

Did a child draw that map? Good good. What a hot mess. It doesn't really even line up with NWS forecast. I'm guessing his audience is in the NE and MA. I would roll my eyes but I don't think my retinas can handle that anymore.

 

[SNOWMANN]

Calm before the storm here on the eastern slopes. Temps crashing, currently 21.

View attachment 75674

I can see my house from there no jk that will be a pretty pic com Thursday morning. I'm anxious to see how low we get tonight the ground temps are colder too so this storm may have legs for more than elevated surface ice accumulations.

 

[Stormlover]

RAP, yeah, something's going up in NW Ala soon

 

[TheBatman]

@DarkKnight do you think if the south shift continues Tuscaloosa and Birmingham might get in on the action?

Probably not. Unfortunately..

 

[PARSONBROWN]

RAP, yeah, something's going up in NW Ala soon View attachment 75690

still flurries in Huntsville.....Been sledding all day of Monte Sano. Went sleep last night with sunny weather mid 20s high by 2pm by local weather. LMAO. Woke up light snow showers, been like that all day max temp 19 degrees. I will take my chances of just wait and see

 

[Myfrotho704_]