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Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

I do want to clear something up for those who might think I'm wishing for a devastating ice storm. I'm not. I'm only following what guidance is showing. I have been living in the Carolina's since 2002. I know what CAD's are capable of. Just stay weather-ready and prepared that this may trend in the wrong direction. If it doesn't, that's fine. I do love my heat TV/internet. But don't let your guard down.
 
The colder air is really pushing in now east of the mountains. It definitely feels like it’s being “deposited” right on time for moisture to move in over it. If we can get even slightly stronger classical damming (meso high?), and can wet bulb just a degree or two colder for a few hours, this will get ugly in a big way. I feel somewhat conflicted, as I’m sure a lot of us in the ice zone do. I love a good winter storm, but I’m afraid the destruction and disruption we face isn’t worth the excitement. We’ve been teased with ice storm possibilities so many times recently, and it seems like our luck is finally running out. The trends in temperatures, dew points, and cloud cover tomorrow should give us the final say, but the models are ominous for sure. For now, I’m bracing for problems here in W-S.
 
PARSONBROWN said:
still flurries in Huntsville.....Been sledding all day of Monte Sano. Went sleep last night with sunny weather mid 20s high by 2pm by local weather. LMAO. Woke up light snow showers, been like that all day max temp 19 degrees. I will take my chances of just wait and see
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was up there as well, probably unknowingly passed each other a few times. This event seems very similar to the last one. Low placement, WAA, very close dividing line for Huntsville (as always, redstone curse). But this system lacks the cold air after the fact right? From what I have been sparingly reading from mets is that we could see some wintry precip but it will rain after the fact and warm up? Is that right?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It still brings the freezing line all the way down here, womp View attachment 75698
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Yeah Dewpoint’s honestly still look fairly low from Raleigh -Greensboro and even towards Charlotte sitting at 28-30 through the current time period on the HRRR .. but also can u take a look at Pryor product ... it just looks outrageous.. sleet everywhere mixed with freezing rain? What would the type be ?
 
JimRussell said:
was up there as well, probably unknowingly passed each other a few times. This event seems very similar to the last one. Low placement, WAA, very close dividing line for Huntsville (as always, redstone curse). But this system lacks the cold air after the fact right? From what I have been sparingly reading from mets is that we could see some wintry precip but it will rain after the fact and warm up? Is that right?
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No, a front comes through and gets into the teens again, but the warmup begins this weekend
 
HRRR tries to drop 1-3” of sleet across the upstate and 2-4” across NC. That should tell you we’re not in it’s range yet bc I will be ridiculously surprised if it’s anything other than freezing rain
 
iGRXY said:
HRRR tries to drop 1-3” of sleet across the upstate and 2-4” across NC. That should tell you we’re not in it’s range yet bc I will be ridiculously surprised if it’s anything other than freezing rain
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One other thing, the HRRR is very poor with CAD so if you’re already between 30-34 degrees this far out on it, that’s not very good.
 
For N AL, 0z HRRR came in colder at the surface but warmer at 850 level and accumulations are essentially nil.
 
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