Webberweather53
Meteorologist
-
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Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Bye bye severe storms
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
How the hell are we stuck in the rain and freezing rain pattern for a whole week?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's the final one thru 60 hr. About a third an inch of ice on the National Blend of Models FRAM in GSO. Some glazing now extends down into the upstate of SC.
SnowNiner
Member
18z hrrr to Huntsville I’ll go
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What a beautiful sight right there. Days gone by when that would be sure fire winter threat for the Charlotte area. If only that polar boundary got past the mountains. Enjoy.
Stormlover
Member
hrrr is awesome 
iGRXY
Member
This is so close in the upstate and around CLT it is crazy. talking 32-33 degrees on the NAM now.
packfan98
Moderator
Looks like the 18z Nam has the PV piece a little stronger and it locks in the HP a little better. It was a tick stronger too.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
How cold does it have to be to get snow here instead of ice?
iGRXY
Member
Snow isn't happening. 850's are screaming. Even with a more southern solution the only hope is sleet.
I personally don’t think there is any chance for snow south of VA from looking at these soundings. The real hope is to get a less intense warm nose than the furnace that is showing right now. That way hopefully you take advantage of what looks to be fairly cold 925s and you get sleet... however I don’t have much confidence in that right now. To me, the big red flag is how the NAM continues to trend a little further south with the low. If that continues, we may see lighter precipitation rates, which mean less latent heating, better cooled rain drops hitting the surface, less runoff and more optimal condition for ice to accrue.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Solid 4-8" for you Buford.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Both the 3k and 12k NAM much much colder this way. 25-27 degrees during bulk of precip. Ain’t looking good folks.
A lot. The mid level flow is originating from near Cancun that isn't great for snow here.
Lighter precip rates where ZR is occurring...makes it easier for ice to accrue
Look at the bright side. At least you're going to get ice instead of plain rain.
Meanwhile, here's the latest DFW NWS forecast, which has upped tomorrow's snow/sleet accum. from 1" to 1-3" with ice under 1/10":
TXZ119-170015-
DALLAS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF DALLAS
113 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2021
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
CST THURSDAY...
THIS AFTERNOON
CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT.
TONIGHT
A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING, THEN SNOW WITH
POSSIBLE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION. ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 17. EAST
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
WEDNESDAY
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW, SLEET WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. COLD
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
What is this ? It’s like some sort of CAA behind the system ? It keeps showing up on models 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
3k NAM has Boone at 25 on Thursday morning at 8 AM. Last run it was 30. Buckle up!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Trends on NWP today certainly seem to generally suggest folks that were spared by the last ice storm between the Triad & Triangle areas in places like Burlington, Chapel Hill, Hillsborough, & north Durham may not be so lucky this time around