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Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

Here’s the past three runs of the RAP from oldest to newest for the 15z time today(the initialized new run) .. every run has initialized lower with Dewpoint’s and then warms up randomly every time the run goes out.. people finna be real mad when models get a grip to the drier air ?9033B082-57AA-4C9B-A616-255CC1831D40.png011F0BDD-E06E-4169-A015-E632B9528F9A.png84601FF2-0765-4D32-AF0E-8A145CF9D795.png
 
It’s going to be close here in SW Durham. Looks like we are going to be on the dividing line between nuisance icing and some serious icing. Verbatim, it seems most modeling has warning criteria icing here, but some don’t and even those that do have us just 10-50 miles from less serious icing. Of course, if the cold overperforms we’re in it bad for sure.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
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this is from Allan Huffman .. he’s a good follow on Twitter for NC weather peeps in here ... I like his thinking here .. he’s always spot on
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You literally just disliked a post of my thoughts that basically matches Allan's map. A couple models have had the ice too far down into SC, and maybe even Charlotte doesn't see much.
 
ghost1 said:
Radar returns starting to enter NW AL but not reaching ground in Florence... 23°/16°
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Pup12 said:
Projected temperature in Huntsville area right now is 32. Sitting at 25 and fairly dry. Maybe gives us a decent shot at some snow before the rains take over
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Ultimaparadox said:
Sitting at 25 here in NW Huntsville, warming as anticipated, but not as quickly. Maybe at least get to few some snow falling before the rain melts everything
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This might be quite the sleet event for you HSV folks. Probably initial snow over to sleet. As you go farther W and WNW the longer the snow holds
 
Correct me if I’m wrong, but nowhere in the Triangle has seen a significant ice storm since December 2002, right? So I’m wondering if the potential effects here in the Durham area could be close to as bad as the Triad, even if we don’t get as much icing, since the Triad has had significant icing more recently that might’ve already taken out a lot of the weaker trees (March 2014 and just a few days ago!!). Just something to think about, we shall see.
 
Sleet City USA said:
He seems to have been more bullish for the southern extent of this. Wonder what he's seeing
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He said why he’s more bullish and is the same thinking I have. CAD last longer and is colder than modeled, and models have underestimated just how cold this air is at the surface since it’s dropped down into the US. My current DP is 21 and I’m supposed to be in the mid to upper 20’s according to the NAM. Small errors like that make a worlds difference when you’re a degree or 2 away from freezing on model guidance.
 
iGRXY said:
He said why he’s more bullish and is the same thinking I have. CAD last longer and is colder than modeled, and models have underestimated just how cold this air is at the surface since it’s dropped down into the US. My current DP is 21 and I’m supposed to be in the mid to upper 20’s according to the NAM. Small errors like that make a worlds difference when you’re a degree or 2 away from freezing on model guidance.
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I've been saying this all week as well. I feel like we are on an island of our own when it comes to this. Which is fine. everyone is going to perceive things differently. And a lot of those people know a lot more than I do. I am merely an amateur though. There are so many others who know more way more than me. So, please don't take this as dissing anyone. I am very respectful of those who have more knowledge.
 
iGRXY said:
He said why he’s more bullish and is the same thinking I have. CAD last longer and is colder than modeled, and models have underestimated just how cold this air is at the surface since it’s dropped down into the US. My current DP is 21 and I’m supposed to be in the mid to upper 20’s according to the NAM. Small errors like that make a worlds difference when you’re a degree or 2 away from freezing on model guidance.
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The NAM3km actually looks on track, other then the UHI it matches up well with current dewpoints 5EC68C16-EF08-4C8E-844A-3D68A37E88F2.pngBB4C6F13-85A2-46EE-A1DD-4E38EECA587C.gif
 
superjames1992 said:
Correct me if I’m wrong, but nowhere in the Triangle has seen a significant ice storm since December 2002, right? So I’m wondering if the potential effects here in the Durham area could be close to as bad as the Triad, even if we don’t get as much icing, since the Triad has had significant icing more recently that might’ve already taken out a lot of the weaker trees (March 2014 and just a few days ago!!). Just something to think about, we shall see.
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Feb 2003




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Main purpose isn’t to sound like I’m wishcasting for ice because I’m not. My thinking is folks along and north of 85 are 50/50 for either ice or rain. It very easily could be all rain or CAD does what it does best and we get a sneaky ice storm. Too much absolute statements saying it’s only going to be rain, etc. and that’s not the case here. It’s a 50/50 shot here. Not 75/25 rain to Ice ratio, not 80/20 ice to rain ratio. All things are available. Temps are hovering between 32-34 degrees. If you don’t think those lower than expected DP and just common knowledge of CAD and how the models have done poorly with this airmass don’t make a difference, then idk what to tell you at this point.
 
iGRXY said:
Main purpose isn’t to sound like I’m wishcasting for ice because I’m not. My thinking is folks along and north of 85 are 50/50 for either ice or rain. It very easily could be all rain or CAD does what it does best and we get a sneaky ice storm. Too much absolute statements saying it’s only going to be rain, etc. and that’s not the case here. It’s a 50/50 shot here. Not 75/25 rain to Ice ratio, not 80/20 ice to rain ratio. All things are available. Temps are hovering between 32-34 degrees. If you don’t think those lower than expected DP and just common knowledge of CAD and how the models have done poorly with this airmass don’t make a difference, then idk what to tell you at this point.
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Prove to me the models have done poorly, you keep saying the dews are lower the dews are lower . Ok so go ahead and show me and explain why the dews 16 plus hours ahead of this system are important .
 
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