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Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

When you look at the recent 06z HRRR run for 4 am it has the Dewpoint at RDU at 28 ... the dew point currently at RDU at 3 am is 21 ... an ice storm is coming
 
Brent said:
You're telling me after those big fat flakes in Waco last month it's been the total opposite both Sunday and tonight
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"Hail" at DFW at 2 AM lol:

200 AM CST WED FEB 17 2021

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR S TO VISIBILITY.

TXZ118-119-170900-
DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
DFW AIRPORT HAIL 19 17 92 E3 30.11R FOG
 
GaWx said:
"Hail" at DFW at 2 AM lol:

200 AM CST WED FEB 17 2021

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR S TO VISIBILITY.

TXZ118-119-170900-
DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
DFW AIRPORT HAIL 19 17 92 E3 30.11R FOG
Click to expand...

My friend closer to Dallas was reporting graupel earlier
 
From RAH:
Clouds will rapidly increase this evening, and precipitation will
follow soon after. The low pressure system responsible for the
precipitation will be off the Louisiana coast this evening, moving
northeast into southern Georgia by Thursday evening. While
temperatures will be warm enough for most precipitation to start as
rain, cooling surface temperatures will allow for a wide portion of
the forecast area to switch over to freezing rain. Freezing rain
will persist for many hours in many locations, through the rest of
the night and all of the day on Thursday. However, the warm nose of
temperatures above the surface may not initially be warm enough to
completely melt all snowflakes, and the below freezing surface layer
may be thick enough to allow for some sleet to occur due to
refreezing. The sleet should be a relatively short-lived event,
coming to an end by sunrise. By sunrise Thursday, all precipitation
should be falling as rain or freezing rain, and the transition zone
will shift very slowly north through the day. Many locations west of
I-95 should have at least a brief period of freezing rain except for
southwestern counties such as Anson, Richmond, and Scotland. While
the forecast for the last couple of days has leaned heavily on the
(colder) NAM solution, even the GFS is now coming in line with the
NAM in showing a sustained period of below freezing temperatures as
a result of cold advection, which provides increased confidence in a
prolonged freezing rain event. While locations north of I-85 will
generally remain below freezing all day, Sampson County is the only
area that might possibly have temperatures rise above 40 degrees on
Thursday. Finally, as strange as it is to think about when most of
the area will be receiving frozen precipitation, cannot rule out a
slight chance for thunderstorms, particularly east of I-95. In this
area, elevated convection may be able to develop off the top of the
strong inversion at 3-4 thousand feet with moderate lapse rates
extending into mid levels.

Have converted all counties that were in a Winter Storm Watch to a
Winter Storm Warning, in addition to adding Davidson and Randolph
Counties into a Warning. As expected, have also put several
counties in a Winter Weather Advisory where at least some
freezing rain accumulation is expected.
 
Yikes

StormTotalIceWeb.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
3km NAM is still spitting out a +10C ish warm nose at KGSO 12z tomorrow. I'm comparing it to other prominent ZR events in the Triad and I've still yet to find one w/ a stronger warm nose than that lol
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1.2” to 1.6” rain. 80% will run off and not freeze unlike last weekend when all of the light to moderate rain froze
 
NCSNOW said:
Most of ice east of raleigh is the Friday Deal on RGEM'

View attachment 75785
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There is no icing east of Raleigh on Friday, it ends Thursday afternoon. It does try to bring some zr in the triad Friday and even flips to sn in NE NC but thar is early Sat morning.
 
All of the models look pretty bad for ice around here. RAH must not think that are correct if they only have Wake under an advisory.
 
Woke up and it seems as if some of the models backed up on the ice for my area. Thank goodness. To all the I40, triad, and raleigh folks stay safe! Looks like a crippling ice storm.
 
Brick Tamland said:
All of the models look pretty bad for ice around here. RAH must not think that are correct if they only have Wake under an advisory.
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They tend to follow the NAM. The 12k does show winter storm criteria ice for northern Wake; but the 3k now shows something that's close to their current forecast.
 
Brick Tamland said:
All of the models look pretty bad for ice around here. RAH must not think that are correct if they only have Wake under an advisory.
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Not really, all those dooms day ice maps aren't accurate and RAH not gonna issue a warning based off of those. What has been accurate and what they are probably using is the NWS blend of models, that shows .19 for RDU which is below warning criteria.
 
26.7 this morning. I'm a little surprised that I was able to get this low with the saturated ground. I also tend to run a little warmer than surrounding areas on clear nights.
 
Jessy89 said:
29 this morning in Liberty. I do not think freezing rain will be a big deal here. I’m thinking less then 0.10 if not a 33 degree rain. Which to me looks to be the most likely outcome


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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You didn't think liberty was gonna get any snow last time either, and went to NC.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
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