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Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

Myfrotho704_ said:
My update 2nd call, will update as needed, this one is looking bad ?? it would be so nice if I was dropping things south and upticking things for snow, but it’s ice unfortunately View attachment 75749
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Didn’t you just hear? No ice in the upstate!
 
03z RAP has Raleigh at a 29 Dewpoint by midnight ... only gets to 26 at its lowest point ... the current Dewpoint is 25 .. I’ve seen this sad song before
 
The double waves back to back look on the NAMs is a little concerning! I mean the 2nd wave looks less icy, but the first wave already does the dirty work, it’s looking really bad for the heart of CAD region!
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
03z RAP has Raleigh at a 29 Dewpoint by midnight ... only gets to 26 at its lowest point ... the current Dewpoint is 25 .. I’ve seen this sad song before
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According to the RAP I’m supposed to be sitting somewhere around 33/25 right now at it’s initialization. I’m currently 29/18. It’s useless tryna to sniff out low level cold air.
 
campamy said:
Earlier AFD from MRX this evening. I'm at 17 degrees right now with a forecasted low of 20 ? Grasping because I desperately want to try out our new sled!

"I think the biggest factor to keep an
eye on will be surface temperatures tonight (Tuesday night) and
daytime highs on Wednesday. Sometimes the models don`t handle how
long a dense/cold air mass can stick around in the eastern TN
valley, and sometimes we are slower to warm up than models
previously indicated. 12z Models have come in slightly colder for
daytime highs on Wednesday indicating that they may be picking up on
this colder air sticking around longer than previously indicated. If
daytime daytime highs on Wednesday get stuck in the 30`s or
near/below 40 then we`ll not have as far to drop overnight to hit
that freezing mark... I may very well be wrong on this, but I think
keeping an eye on how temperatures are trending on daytime Wednesday
will be the first indicator for the predominant precipitation type
on Thursday morning in the Valley."
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they are giving me hope just for it to be 37 and rainy...

All jokes aside.. if I remember correctly we had a similar event in 2014(?) system came through right after a cold blast and got a nice surprise.
 
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Every time the HRRR has initialized the Dewpoint’s have been 3-4 degrees lower than what the HRRR predicted the previous hour .. someone check it I promise it checks out
 
Ollie Williams said:
It did pretty poorly with the last event. It was too far south, and too bearish with the totals further north.
View attachment 75759
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That doesn't look too bad to me at least in the hardest hit zones, there's definitely a cold bias there w/ too much ZR too far southeast and nowhere near enough in the mountains, but the amounts in the hardest hit parts of the NW piedmont aren't outlandish, we had widespread ZR accums of 0.35-0.4" in the northern piedmont of NC and that's basically what it spit out here.

Also, the highest ZR accums were actually further north in the last storm in southern VA and not in NC. Lots of 0.5"+ ZR amounts near Appomattox, VA

Screen Shot 2021-02-17 at 12.50.11 AM.png
 
Something I should definitely mention wrt FRAM (looking at the paper once again), the FRAM output is ZR accumulation on a flat, horizontal surface, to convert to radial ice accrual which is what we measure on trees & accrues on power lines, you have to take the FRAM output amounts from the models and multiply them by 0.4.
 
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