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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

CaryWx said:
Hasn't the SSWE already kicked off? Just no assurance it will translate down below 150mb to have any meaning effect our weather in the SE right?
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I want to remain hopeful as I'd really like to see snow fall once this year, but a SSWE is just a unicorn imo. They just never seem to affect the troposphere in a way that benefits us.

I think 2014 may have been the last time it did? March was cold and Winston Salem got a few small winter events IIRC? But my back yard was just not cold enough to snow. Now if it did, and we are in cold phases of the mjo, and all lines up just right, who knows. Just doubtful it does.
 
Webberweather53 said:
2016-17 was not an El Nino winter. You're mistaking it for 2015-16.
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Oh ok… I don’t know why I was thinking that was an El Niño too… I just remember it got warm very quick after that storm in early January that was so painful for us folks in SE CLT metro to go through. was it a neutral ENSO?
 
Yep, we probably only go slight cool in late Feb/early March when the -NAO retrogrades and it’s attendant vortex follows, via CAD, but it’s very possible the pacific remains unfavorable, EPS and gefs has really lost the extension that was signaled, might see another one of those weird -NAO/eastern ridge bridge setups 4DAFA19E-2B6C-4028-933F-873A87F44E5F.pngE3AFD479-3BDD-4704-AA5F-FF5240D429BB.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep, we probably only go slight cool in late Feb/early March when the -NAO retrogrades and it’s attendant vortex follows, via CAD, but it’s very possible the pacific remains unfavorable, EPS and gefs has really lost the extension that was signaled, might see another one of those weird -NAO/eastern ridge bridge setups View attachment 133172View attachment 133173
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Also the MJO really isn’t looking like it’s gonna be much help. Yes it’s still progressing towards cold phases, but much like we saw in late January, it wants to go into the COD and isn’t amped enough to help us
 
SD said:
I don't have all of my data in front of my but I think the last 2 times I hit 80 in Feb it snowed in March. Obviously small sample size that doesn't mean a lot just interesting
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Heck it happened the day or so after we hit 80 a few times. listen to what he says temps were a few day before.....RIP Stuart Scott

 
I posted in the past "storms" thread about Charlotte, NC not having a year...on record...that has recorded a shutout , for snow, since records have been taken. Right now...I would be ok with it. I mean, god what a dumpster fire of a year, but if we are going down in flames, might as well throw gas on it? I say why not.
 
CLTwx said:
I posted in the past "storms" thread about Charlotte, NC not having a year...on record...that has recorded a shutout , for snow, since records have been taken. Right now...I would be ok with it. I mean, god what a dumpster fire of a year, but if we are going down in flames, might as well throw gas on it? I say why not.
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I'm with you. Let's 0 out. Although there have been many years without measurable snow. A winter should go down snowless unless it has measurable snow or sleet accumulations of 0.1 or more. Just like this year at GSP. A few sleet pellets were recorded as a trace back on Dec 20th so technically the shutout has been avoided, yet not a single actual snowflake has fallen and there has been 0 sleet or snow accumulation. That's bs. As far as I'm concerned there have been many snowless years at GSP, CLT and RDU. I guarantee you many of those years where a trace was recorded those years were just like this one. A few pockets of onset sleet or maybe even snow that happened to fall at the observation stations when 80% of the area was completely blanked. This winter is awful I'm not denying that. But it's not as rare as some folks would have you believe.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I'm with you. Let's 0 out. Although there have been many years without measurable snow. A winter should go down snowless unless it has measurable snow or sleet accumulations of 0.1 or more. Just like this year at GSP. A few sleet pellets were recorded as a trace back on Dec 20th so technically the shutout has been avoided, yet not a single actual snowflake has fallen and there has been 0 sleet or snow accumulation. That's bs. As far as I'm concerned there have been many snowless years at GSP, CLT and RDU. I guarantee you many of those years where a trace was recorded those years were just like this one. A few pockets of onset sleet or maybe even snow that happened to fall at the observation stations when 80% of the area was completely blanked. This winter is awful I'm not denying that. But it's not as rare as some folks would have you believe.
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Matter of fact GSP has had 14 winters of just a trace and this will likely be 15. And also the one where that didn't even occur. The lovely 11-12 winter. So after this year that's 16 snowless winters in my book.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I'm with you. Let's 0 out. Although there have been many years without measurable snow. A winter should go down snowless unless it has measurable snow or sleet accumulations of 0.1 or more. Just like this year at GSP. A few sleet pellets were recorded as a trace back on Dec 20th so technically the shutout has been avoided, yet not a single actual snowflake has fallen and there has been 0 sleet or snow accumulation. That's bs. As far as I'm concerned there have been many snowless years at GSP, CLT and RDU. I guarantee you many of those years where a trace was recorded those years were just like this one. A few pockets of onset sleet or maybe even snow that happened to fall at the observation stations when 80% of the area was completely blanked. This winter is awful I'm not denying that. But it's not as rare as some folks would have you believe.
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The odd thing about the lack of even a trace at CLT this year is that the official observation looks to be one of the very few locations that didn’t see a period of Snow or sleet on 12/20. Just about the entire metro area had at least an hour or so that day
 
SD said:
I don't have all of my data in front of my but I think the last 2 times I hit 80 in Feb it snowed in March. Obviously small sample size that doesn't mean a lot just interesting
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Anytime it get warm in Feb it generally always gets cold in Marc and April. I look for a good storm by March 15th. Could be wrong but wouldn't be surprised.
 
I have seen a couple of winters where we don't plow anything until late February into March. Looking back at our business accounts Feb 26th thru March 10th have been good dates. This year it may be 80 degrees who knows
 
SWVAwxfan said:
I pretty much think that it's done snow wise for this winter. Maybe next winter. ?
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In your location I can’t imagine that you don’t see at least one 2-4 incher by April 1st. I honestly don’t remember the last time we saw a mild January and February that didn’t turn cooler than average consistently for March and at least the first part of April. Heck even the dumpster fire that was 2012 had a number of March cool shots and if I remember your area scored a pretty big storm in late February that year
 
Chazwin said:
In your location I can’t imagine that you don’t see at least one 2-4 incher by April 1st. I honestly don’t remember the last time we saw a mild January and February that didn’t turn cooler than average consistently for March and at least the first part of April. Heck even the dumpster fire that was 2012 had a number of March cool shots and if I remember your area scored a pretty big storm in late February that year
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Wouldn’t hold my breath to that counting on snow much anymore se before April ? Lol
 
LOL / Saddle up: The 2/22 storm still lives on on the 6z GFS: Been watching this model spit this out for this time period from several days back. Course the Canadian is telling it, its off by about 100 miles. The Canadian trumped all others last go round from the ULL.

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Outside of a 2 day trough like March 12th on the CFS: Its a torch on everything I can see, ensembles/Ops. Minus the GFS image above, that will be wrong , no doubt: The odds we get shut out in Greensboro are at 95% + right now. I see zero hope outside a volcano erupting and the ashe residue blocking the sun . SER is the champ, once again.
 
NCSNOW said:
Outside of a 2 day trough like March 12th on the CFS: Its a torch on everything I can see, ensembles/Ops. Minus the GFS image above, that will be wrong , no doubt: The odds we get shut out in Greensboro are at 95% + right now. I see zero hope outside a volcano erupting and the ashe residue blocking the sun . SER is the champ, once again.
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Still a month of reasonable time period for winter weather. Best chance likely comes in early March when we likely go into a
-PNA/-NAO pattern if we can get some high latitude blocking from the SSWE, which means CAD for days. We also have been lucky that the cold air is own our side of the earth and is wound up so it’s available. But that’s about the best case scenario right now. But CAD is also how we score 8/10x so I’m not throwing in the towel until the 2nd week of March.
 
iGRXY said:
Still a month of reasonable time period for winter weather. Best chance likely comes in early March when we likely go into a
-PNA/-NAO pattern if we can get some high latitude blocking from the SSWE, which means CAD for days. We also have been lucky that the cold air is own our side of the earth and is wound up so it’s available. But that’s about the best case scenario right now. But CAD is also how we score 8/10x so I’m not throwing in the towel until the 2nd week of March.
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Yeah… we’ve certainly been in a pattern that promotes cold shots it seems every weekend. I definitely think it’s likely that areas outside of the mountains and foothills will likely get shut out the rest of the year, but we’ve seen to many late February and March storms over the years to rule out the mountain and foothills to be able to score
 
iGRXY said:
Still a month of reasonable time period for winter weather. Best chance likely comes in early March when we likely go into a
-PNA/-NAO pattern if we can get some high latitude blocking from the SSWE, which means CAD for days. We also have been lucky that the cold air is own our side of the earth and is wound up so it’s available. But that’s about the best case scenario right now. But CAD is also how we score 8/10x so I’m not throwing in the towel until the 2nd week of March.
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PNA forecasted to go negative. NAO is still a toss up to be honest…transiently negative at best. GFS has a parade of storms into the northeast finally giving them some snow and our welcomed CAD driven chilly rain.


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34° for the low here in my part (Nine Times). Supposed to get back into the 60s today.

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