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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

Six Mile Wx said:
Last week of the month is looking interesting with models showing a SSWE and most of the cold air on this side of the Arctic.
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Skeptical it traverses the troposphere. As of now today and one day next weekend give us our two BN days and the remainder of the month looks solidly AN. I know the effects of the SSWE would be down the road if at all.


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Favorable MJO potential to help drive the pacific, SSWE to help get some high latitude blocking and help lock in a nice -NAO and 50/50. Could eat air in the northern hemisphere is on our side of the globe for once. If you want a March snow, the ingredients are there for it.
 
Looking at the GFS and Canadian I would think our next real chance of a winter storm is around 10 days out. Verbatim the GFS would have a central VA - mid-Atlantic storm. But at this range we just need ducks on the water (cold air to our north and a storm in the east). The Canadian looks good as well (..with the ducks) and verbatim looks to be setting up for something good. Who knows. If we're going to get a storm we need something to happen soon. Clocks ticking.
 
iGRXY said:
Favorable MJO potential to help drive the pacific, SSWE to help get some high latitude blocking and help lock in a nice -NAO and 50/50. Could eat air in the northern hemisphere is on our side of the globe for once. If you want a March snow, the ingredients are there for it.
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Sure. I would love a March snow. Why not. We haven't seen any snow in this craptastic pattern of a so called winter. Any anything to hold off the impending doom of the relentless heat and humidity right around the corner.
 
There is a type of cherry that blooms during the winter so that is a lot of what is seen. Thanks he Japanese will be opening soon if not already. Dogwoods opening in March would be early. Daffodils are out and some red maples are swelling but that’s it my way.
 
EmersonGA said:
There is a type of cherry that blooms during the winter so that is a lot of what is seen. Thanks he Japanese will be opening soon if not already. Dogwoods opening in March would be early. Daffodils are out and some red maples are swelling but that’s it my way.
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I heard some azaleas are starting to bloom in parts of GA !
 
Over here, it’s pink buds (I’m assuming some sort of cherry), tulip trees starting to show signs, red maples are blooming, fescue is greening. Definitely way ahead of schedule, this weekend probably slows stuff but later next week should speed it back up again, im assuming after next weeks torch, Bradford pears will probably start blooming
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Over here, it’s pink buds (I’m assuming some sort of cherry), tulip trees starting to show signs, red maples are blooming, fescue is greening. Definitely way ahead of schedule, this weekend probably slows stuff but later next week should speed it back up again, im assuming after next weeks torch, Bradford pears will probably start blooming
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This weekend won't slow it down. Its been cold during the day but still well above freezing day and night.
 
LickWx said:
This weekend won't slow it down. Its been cold during the day but still well above freezing day and night.
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I mean the cooler days taking down the ground temps somewhat, it definitely will have a little effect, but will be back to speeding up again this week, especially later this week when nighttime temps are in 40s and 50s
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I mean the cooler days taking down the ground temps somewhat, it definitely will have a little effect, but will be back to speeding up again this week, especially later this week when nighttime temps are in 40s and 50s
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We've done a decent job at holding off most plants minus the notoriously early ones but I'm concerned about the next 10 days really getting things excited. Current soil temperature is 48 but will likely be 60-65 by Thursday, that ain't good
 
How’s the EPS looking for fropa timing next Friday? If it slows down a few hours from the current look on the op models, may have a little 95 and points east slight risk day
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I mean the cooler days taking down the ground temps somewhat, it definitely will have a little effect, but will be back to speeding up again this week, especially later this week when nighttime temps are in 40s and 50s
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Those lows are typical of mid April.


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ATLwxfan said:
It’s possible. Small white flowers I’ve typically seen blooming in mid March. I’ll take some pics and you horticulture experts can let me know.


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If you don’t know how to ID dogwoods, probably shouldn’t be posting about them. Doesn’t take a horticulture expert to sleuth this out. It’s like saying you don’t know how to ID magnolias.
 
Ron Burgundy said:
If you don’t know how to ID dogwoods, probably shouldn’t be posting about them. Doesn’t take a horticulture expert to sleuth this out. It’s like saying you don’t know how to ID magnolias.
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They looked like dogwoods…it was jarring to see them in bloom is all. If I’m wrong about the species then I’m sorry. It’s ok to be wrong. I’m glad to learn from fellow posters. But I’ll continue to post what comes to mind as it pertains to the weather and it’s effects. I guess you’ll just have to be ok with it since this is a shared space.


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ATLwxfan said:
They looked like dogwoods…it was jarring to see them in bloom is all. If I’m wrong about the species then I’m sorry. It’s ok to be wrong. I’m glad to learn from fellow posters. But I’ll continue to post what comes to mind as it pertains to the weather and it’s effects. I guess you’ll just have to be ok with it since this is a shared space.


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A lot of things bloom in February around here, especially if it’s been mild for a few weeks. Redbuds, forsythia, daffodils, maybe pear trees. This isn’t anything new, and shouldn’t be jarring - just nature’s cycle.
 
EmersonGA said:
There is a type of cherry that blooms during the winter so that is a lot of what is seen. Thanks he Japanese will be opening soon if not already. Dogwoods opening in March would be early. Daffodils are out and some red maples are swelling but that’s it my way.
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There is a Bradford pear in full bloom down the street from me.
 
We may be on to spring but a real battle zone setting up for the I-95 corridor in the northeast.


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Ron Burgundy said:
A lot of things bloom in February around here, especially if it’s been mild for a few weeks. Redbuds, forsythia, daffodils, maybe pear trees. This isn’t anything new, and shouldn’t be jarring - just nature’s cycle.
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I never seen buttercups come up freaking January like this year . Last week January they were coming through ground . Blooming now
 
As warm as this winter has been I’m pretty sure the 2016 / 2017 winter was worse. Snow wise We only had a trace and like 2-3 flurry events here. January was really warm and probably the worst January I’ve experienced as far as warmth. At one point I went like 18-19 days without dropping below freezing which is unheard of this far north In the dead of winter. Usually even in the warmer winters like this one I’ll rarely go more then 6-7 days without dropping below freezing for a few nights in a row. Last night I got down to 27.3 which about 1 degree below my average for this time of year. It looks like it’s going to get extremely warm this week before going back to cold Thursday night and hopefully not to much severe weather.
 
Went outside this morning and it just smelled like spring. We have pre-budding on some of the oaks. The Japanese cherry tree is still mostly dormant though that should change soon.
 
ATLwxfan said:
www.wcnc.com

An early spring comes with advantages and disadvantages

Spring is way ahead of schedule for the Charlotte area this year. Here's a closer look at what to expect as the season changes.
www.wcnc.com www.wcnc.com


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My grass is about 85% green now. Been cutting it once a week for a few weeks. Already Spring down here and Pollen has peaked as well. The tress have been slow to bloom but everything else is past bloom or at peak.
 
olhausen said:
As warm as this winter has been I’m pretty sure the 2016 / 2017 winter was worse. Snow wise We only had a trace and like 2-3 flurry events here. January was really warm and probably the worst January I’ve experienced as far as warmth. At one point I went like 18-19 days without dropping below freezing which is unheard of this far north In the dead of winter. Usually even in the warmer winters like this one I’ll rarely go more then 6-7 days without dropping below freezing for a few nights in a row. Last night I got down to 27.3 which about 1 degree below my average for this time of year. It looks like it’s going to get extremely warm this week before going back to cold Thursday night and hopefully not to much severe weather.
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2016/17 was a Super El Niño. January was very mid mild after the storm early in the month and things really didn’t get cold again until late February and then March. Much of the Carolinas actually had a little snow event that year in mid March. Widespread 1-3 for most of the southern half of NC
 
Are we still looking at a pattern change at the end of feb-beginning of march or should I go ahead and start getting the lawnmower ready?
 
Chazwin said:
2016/17 was a Super El Niño. January was very mid mild after the storm early in the month and things really didn’t get cold again until late February and then March. Much of the Carolinas actually had a little snow event that year in mid March. Widespread 1-3 for most of the southern half of NC
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2016-17 was not an El Nino winter. You're mistaking it for 2015-16.
 
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