• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

1675436400-sra6scD4uD4.png

I guess if anyone cares at least the TPV is further south.
 
iGRXY said:
We can do much better than those south of Spartanburg for sure, but it requires the overall pattern or storm to work for most on this board for me to get anything. The perks of living here is when we do get a storm I fight off warm noses longer, it's generally anywhere from 2-5 degrees colder than those south of 85, I benefit from the lift of the 3500ft mountains only about 5-10 miles to my NW, and in tight CAD events I tend to hold a degree or 2 lower than those around the interstate. the winters of 19-20 and 20-21 for example a friend lives a mile N of 85 got a dusting from each of the handful of novelty snow events and I got around 0.5-1". During 32 Degree rains of 20-21 he got exactly that while I was a degree or 2 colder so I got ice on the trees and bushes. It's just little stuff like that, that counts and helps but for me to see snow or ice it takes the same things for anyone else east of the mountains and along and north of 85 to happen for me to score. Living this far north of the interstate and having an extra 300-400 ft in average elevation vs those along the interstate is great though no doubt and really really helps in marginal setups especially.
Click to expand...
Agreed. Gownensville east to Chesnee north of HWY 11 is the snow honey hole of SC. Been In the Upstate my whole life and it’s comical the drop in snowfall 5 miles make. Temp variances are the same.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
This is probably the worst cycle of weather for January in recent memory. Same song and dance every week. Rain, cloud, cloud, rain, cloud, rain, dense fog

This is a lethal environment for people battling depression. Stay strong, Kings. Spring is coming
Click to expand...
And next winter will be same. Hopefully the el-nino warm pool out in the pacific sets up in good location and not parked right off the SW coast.
 
packfan98 said:
It's a cold chasing moisture setup. Rarely works east of the mountains without some extra lift and backbuilding.
Click to expand...
That's fair but our source of air is usually not -30c in this situations. I'm not saying it'll happen and be sizeable, but I think the further NE you are in the state, the better shot you have to end as some snow, maybe.
 
packfan98 said:
It's a cold chasing moisture setup. Rarely works east of the mountains without some extra lift and backbuilding.
Click to expand...
Yep, you need a trailing wave that develops along the frontal boundary. It's almost impossible to have one wave move through, precipitation to start as rain, and then change over to a good backside snowfall. If it happens at all, the best you're going to do is rain to a quick burst of snow that melts on contact.

I remember the days when arctic fronts would settle across the area and stall just to the south and then a secondary wave or waves of low pressure would form and ride along the boundary, giving us snow. Our predominate pattern now is that the front just blasts through and there is no southern stream energy. Or the front hangs up west of the mountains and we get the Apps runner.

It used to be neat to see snow in TX and know we'd have a shot at wintry weather here. Now, snow in TX means upper south through TN up into the western areas of the NE or even the Midwest. The angle of the flow is wrong, as we've seen with so many either full continental ridges or west coast troughing. Good old fashioned split flow with bonafide cold to the north that makes it this far south seems to be a thing of the past.
 
Last edited:
Rain Cold said:
Yep, you need a trailing wave that develops along the frontal boundary. It's almost impossible to have one wave move through, precipitation to start as rain, and then change over to a good backside snowfall. If it happens at all, the best you're going to do is rain to a quick burst of snow that melts on contact.
Click to expand...
95% of the time though that push is out of the WNW vs. Nish. I think thats why the GEFS is seemingly picking up on this.
 
BullCityWx said:
That's fair but our source of air is usually not -30c in this situations. I'm not saying it'll happen and be sizeable, but I think the further NE you are in the state, the better shot you have to end as some snow, maybe.
Click to expand...
There have been instances where eastern NC can get something, but the moisture skips the foothills and Triad regions. Maybe east of the Triangle has a shot at a flurry or brief snowshower?
 
packfan98 said:
There have been instances where eastern NC can get something, but the moisture skips the foothills and Triad regions. Maybe east of the Triangle has a shot at a flurry or brief snowshower?
Click to expand...
I mean if I was guessing where it could happen, I'd say from @metwannabe to the sounds. Maybe back as west as TDF. Maybe. We're talking about a ten or fifteen minute snow shower IMO. Nothing more than a T.
 
BullCityWx said:
95% of the time though that push is out of the WNW vs. Nish. I think thats why the GEFS is seemingly picking up on this.
Click to expand...
I mean, you're right, it's possible. The air up there is very cold. It would be a pretty rare scenario, though, one that I'd still rate as a long shot. But I guess that's better than no shot.

The mere fact that we're trying to shoehorn in a trace of snow speaks volumes about where we are with this festering turd of a winter.
 
^^Yeah, the GFS also has a little support.

Hour 75:
1675190661175.png

As stated above, cold chasing moisture hardly ever works. But the incoming winds will have a more northerly direction. Not saying we're going to get anything big, but a good snow shower would be a win at this point.

Dew points:
1675190860591.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top