Ron Burgundy
Member
Huh. Pretty aggressive for FFC, sort of
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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
Huh. Pretty aggressive for FFC, sort ofTornadocane
Member
I've seen the models nail the path and marginal temperatures (34-36 degrees) for a Coastal Storm forecasted to transition precip. to all rain (39-41) a couple days before the event, but fails to depict the dynamic cooling that pulls down your temperature way faster than the mid and lower level warn air can filter-in from the Ocean (23-26). Now you're all snow. Maybe a ping or two from sleet pellets. The forecast goes from 1-3" to 8-18" in NE NJ, and Long Island is sitting at a balmy 45 degrees.
06z will probably be major Ice storm on the GFS. lol
Edit: 00Z CMC = Sucky Sucky
Wow just WOW what a winter we have going...
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In 25 years of business we have never had a winter where we never put out brine or salt. Still a ways to go but this could be the first. Jever thought in a winter where we hit 3 degree lows we would never see snow or ice storms
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Outside of this potential in-situ CAD next Sunday, not really anything to be excited about in the longer term, unless you don’t like snow
NCSNOW
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Yea my bar has been lowered to where If the mulch and trash can lid get covered with something besides frost, I'll cash out and call it a win, cause the streak stayed alive.
The 6z GFS is the ultimate TROLL, lol. Cold Rain Friday, Gets cold enough for frozen Sat into Sunday but dries up. Then late Sunday as the cold pulls out, it whips up a big coastal and throws moisture back over us for mid 30's rain again. Its really comical at this point, just have to laugh at it, with it.
Canadian though slaps a few hours of ice at I 95 before cold air retreats:
NCSNOW
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Yea its gonna take a March into April hail mary at best. Honestly if March is gonna flip, their is zero sign of it so far. Still have a few weeks so we can leave the jury out.
iGRXY
Member
Only we would figure out how to get 1040+ HP with a record breaking 50/50 low and the coldest air in the northern hemisphere not only on outside of the planet but in our source region and manage to get it in between S/Ws. It’s almost comical at this point.
I’ll be honest, once we get towards March by enthusiasm for cold and snow is gone. You get a whole new set up obstacles to fight through on top of the usual stuff and even if you do score, it’ll be gone in 48 hours tops. February is a wash. Our only hope is about a 10 day window likely at the tail end of February through the first week of March and that’s probably it. Then we transition to the typical cold spring.
I’ll be honest, once we get towards March by enthusiasm for cold and snow is gone. You get a whole new set up obstacles to fight through on top of the usual stuff and even if you do score, it’ll be gone in 48 hours tops. February is a wash. Our only hope is about a 10 day window likely at the tail end of February through the first week of March and that’s probably it. Then we transition to the typical cold spring.
The La Nina party is still in control.
ATLwxfan
Member
Can you imagine what it would be like if El Niño actually returns? More rain than we’ve had…lol.
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ATLwxfan
Member
With how topsy turvy it’s been it is not out of the question this pattern persists in the spring.
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iGRXY
Member
Best shot for anything during February will likely be the same areas of Ark, W TN, northern Mississippi, N Louisiana, and CAD areas. CAD areas almost certainly would be ice if we can get anything at all. The only positive from ensembles is we are going to keep swinging Atlantic troughs through behind the SER so a lot of CAD days are likely and you maybe able to sneak something in that type of pattern.
yep I moved on from winter but really need some dry weeks to dry up mud. If we get lucky for winter weather we will be ready but not losing sleep on model runs anytime soon especially outside of 5 days or even closerYea my bar has been lowered to where If the mulch and trash can lid get covered with something besides frost, I'll cash out and call it a win, cause the streak stayed alive.
The 6z GFS is the ultimate TROLL, lol. Cold Rain Friday, Gets cold enough for frozen Sat into Sunday but dries up. Then late Sunday as the cold pulls out, it whips up a big coastal and throws moisture back over us for mid 30's rain again. Its really comical at this point, just have to laugh at it, with it.
Canadian though slaps a few hours of ice at I 95 before cold air retreats:
They're probably not going to get any better from here either. It doesn't matter if it's La Nina, El Nino, 4th year Nina, Nada, Nino^-1 West, or anything else. Every winter is above normal and you have to scratch and claw to even get an event to track, much less come to fruition. We spend the bulk of our climo-favored time +7 now, with maybe some mercy cold late in the season and through the Spring.
I used to enjoy heading into Winter and looked forward to all of the seasonal forecasts. Not anymore. It's simply just foolish to produce a cold outlook anymore. There seem to be literally no combination of variables that lead to anything lower than maybe a -1 for the winter. It sucks.
SnowNiner
Member
Doesn't feel much like la Nina. I'm not sure I remember a winter so wet. Certainly not typical I don't think. For some underlying reason, conditions just want to se ridge and western though the last several years, and I'm not sure it's la Nina. My guess is next year we Nino. And we get more of the same. But thats my hunch.
The good news is we save a lot of time model watching, this is the probably the least amount of time I have spent on looking at models in a winter...ever.
But, we appear to be headed to our typical Feb pattern, maybe even worse.
rburrel2
Member
Ice threat looking less likely now. Remind me not to bet against eps even when gefs and cmce look great. Sigh