Yes, and the spring and summers will be cooler than normal so we move towards a uni-season. Lows in the fifties and highs in the lower eighties all year, with high humidity.
Yeah, all the rain is unusual. We're supposed be warm and dry. The primary storm tracks have been correct but we seem to be getting much more moisture pulled from the Atlantic. If we do go into an el nino (or neutral) we should at least have the storm track shift to the east coast. The problem then is the cold source to our north will be warmer. But, I would rather take my chances with that than what we've been going through.
If there is a caveat to all of this, you said it. The only things increasing in the warmer seasons are the rain totals and low temperatures from higher average humidity. Summer high temperatures really haven't moved that much, and it does seem like we are moving more toward a lower latitude type uniseason.
New seasonal forecast for every year.
Yeah the fact that we’ve had a La Niña last for 3 years, but have continued to get basically get average to above average rainfall is something. As you said the storm tracks have been correct for Niña climo… I would guess that warm SST’s off the southeast coast are contributing to more moisture getting pulled in however
Reads like an old farmers almanac forecast.
It goes in cycles. For me the best period was 1996-2004. I do find it funny when I hear people talk about how bad things have been for snow the last few years. We have at least had some decent snowfalls. The period of 1989-1993 was far worse at least for the CLT area. No measurable snowfall and the number of times of getting just flurries can be counted on 1 hand.
For my lifetime and this is all in NC for 60yrs, it seems the SER has become more of a metastasized feature and doesn't get pushed around as much so to speak as it once did for this area. It's more of a dominant feature in winters now. Maybe I'm just misremembering though.
TBH this period of 2019-now hasn't been all that great tbh. We had 2 Large storms - 1 got the Western southeast a couple of years ago and 1 got us in the CAD region last year. Different regions have gotten novelty events here and there whether it be a over performing clipper in Northern Georgia and extreme western upstate SC, or the nice storm that hit the Southeastern Upstate and eastern piedmont all the way to the coast last year. But generally we are clawing to just get a grass topper. Other than the mountains, no one has had more than 1 big snow in the last 4 years anywhere in the southeast.
I’m in my mid 40s so don’t have quite as long a memory but there has certainly been periods where the SER had just as much control as what we’ve seen the last few years. The time period that I mentioned earlier wasn’t just lacking in snowfall but in cold in the southeast in general with very mild periods for the entire east coast… heck even more recently we saw a similar period from 2005-2009. Going back, my mother used to always talk about how mild winters in the 50s were and my grandmother spoke of how warm the 30s were.
The last decade has been great for Campobello, no? I'd guess they're averaging over 6 inches per season the last 10 years. The cut off south of there is brutal though. Probably only averaging 2 inches or maybe less in Southern Greenville/Spartanburg counties.
No doubt… it hasn’t been good… I guess all that I’m saying that we’ve seen periods like this in the past
Before my time
We can do much better than those south of Spartanburg for sure, but it requires the overall pattern or storm to work for most on this board for me to get anything. The perks of living here is when we do get a storm I fight off warm noses longer, it's generally anywhere from 2-5 degrees colder than those south of 85, I benefit from the lift of the 3500ft mountains only about 5-10 miles to my NW, and in tight CAD events I tend to hold a degree or 2 lower than those around the interstate. the winters of 19-20 and 20-21 for example a friend lives a mile N of 85 got a dusting from each of the handful of novelty snow events and I got around 0.5-1". During 32 Degree rains of 20-21 he got exactly that while I was a degree or 2 colder so I got ice on the trees and bushes. It's just little stuff like that, that counts and helps but for me to see snow or ice it takes the same things for anyone else east of the mountains and along and north of 85 to happen for me to score. Living this far north of the interstate and having an extra 300-400 ft in average elevation vs those along the interstate is great though no doubt and really really helps in marginal setups especially.
Such a tease. The soundings don't favor snow, even in the mountains.
