It would be pretty awesome to see flakes flying during the canes outdoor game. Image of the gfs is so close 
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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
Driving home from work this afternoon noticed several trees were in full bloom. Insanity.
SWVAwxfan
Member
18z Euro says. Not so fast.
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18z euro doesn’t run until 2/18
Late Feb looks like ---- now but you can see the -NAO getting started on the EPS. ------ cold drizzle March inbound
J1C1111
Member
It seems like it’s been going on a lot longer than the last 4 years.
J1C1111
Member
Your right. Probably so I just remember this one to be the 4th one in a row if it comes to be.
I think we are springing by 4/15 but March is looking like dookie stew. Maybe we luck into snow bc it doesn't snow here anymore
BHS1975
Member
Not really been doing that every year now.
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At least it doesn't look like we'll have to worry about another trash La Nina next year.
severestorm
Member
Doesn't that mean MORE amped systems with a more active STJ?
Yes but the storm track is more favored to be further south and east
Yes. And the Pacific is usually more favorable as less Aleutian ridging therefore less Southeast ridging so a better storm track to go along with it. Our source regions are warmer so that can make cold an issue. But when is it not in the south?
SASQUATCH
Mobile, AL: Snow Capital of the South
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We are used to it. It's psychotically funny, now.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Next winter is going to be epic. Can't wait.
and typically you see the coldest anamolies over the southeast
J1C1111
Member
Track keeps trending worse farther north and west but good ole AccuWeather keeps upping my snow totals from a coating to a inch to now 2-4 inches.
NCSNOW
Member
Despite several mega frost earlier this week.check your bradford pears. Month
early fixing to bust out after just 2 warm days of 60 degree temps
early fixing to bust out after just 2 warm days of 60 degree temps
If we are el neutral next winter it'll make you think this was a good winter
There's honestly no good ENSO. It seems every winter is worse than the last.
Until we find a way to keep the mjo out of the warm phases or only have brief glancing passes not much will change. The only real hope I can find for next year is maybe a WEN trying to get us there but I worry we just compound our issues and enhance the STJ with no blocking and constant WC troughing and we just end up with a lot of days with highs in the 40s/50s/60s and lows in the 30s/40s and no arctic air to be found
I haven't seen that much evidence in recent history to really say that enso state can trump the mjo. That said the active stj during a nino can be enough so that you can find the cold windows easier than nina in the less supportive mjo states
BHS1975
Member
SnowNiner
Member
I think that's the million dollar question. Forcing in the pacific never seems to favor us anymore. Background state is always a westen trough.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Whatever happened in the 95-96 and 09-10 seasons; I want that again.
This is the composite for winters (+ENSO) that followed atleast 3 -ENSO winters. No clue if we flip to a nino next year.
Why does it seem whenever we look at composites from years past they never ever pan out...unless they are warm composites.
Why does it seem whenever we look at composites from years past they never ever pan out...unless they are warm composites.
We’ve certainly had bouts with cold phases… January 2022 was a prime example of that… the problem is that we seem to see the path through warmer phases take much longer. Heck even for most of last month it was low amp on the cold side of the circle, but our overall pattern was more in line with a canonical strong Niño… which is part of why I’m wondering how much impact the MJO has in an El Niño
Probably the AN SSTs in the MC region
Cbmatt2408
Member
Looks like things could get interesting late next week from a severe setup.
Well, like it or not, every single ensemble member on today’s Euro Weeklies has an official SSWE (Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event) in the Feb 14-15 timeframe.
Also, the Weeklies show favorable tropical forcing / MJO from mid-Feb thru late March per VP Anomalies
And the pattern response is shown as well. Chilly March or March 1960 incoming
Also, the Weeklies show favorable tropical forcing / MJO from mid-Feb thru late March per VP Anomalies
And the pattern response is shown as well. Chilly March or March 1960 incoming
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SnowNiner
Member
If it really turns out to look that good, maybe we'd have a chance.
Or, maybe 3 more of this weekends, lol.
Markers are there for a “big one” for the Deep South . One-two punch with the first system being the primer, deep ridging surface to 850mb with Caribbean feed and a strong broad trough with 500mb vectors out of the WSW, strengthening surface low centered in MO. Definitely one to watch, classic look.
That blue stuff is too far north. Chilly rains for the SE unless we can get the blue stuff 300 miles farther south.