I don’t know if you saw the graph I posted earlier but 00z ENS means aren’t scoring as good as 12z. I don’t know if that translates to the off hours
To my knowledge, only the Canadian RDPS (short term high res) and RDPS Ensemble (REPS) are available at 06z and 18z, and the REPS only goes out to 72 hours on Meteocentre (link below). It looks like it is running behind on that site for some reason as the latest run on there for the REPS is the Jan 30 06z run
It's off cycle, we punt. But seriously, the 12 z EPS for the weekend gave us about a 2-5 % chance of anything meaningful.
It doesn’t matter. The models are bad but not that bad. Winter storms don’t just sneak up on you anymore. If the models aren’t showing anything it’s because there’s nothing there.
Furthest thing from the truth.
radiosonde ascents help validate better predictability
Last year none of the models saw our biggest snow event in January 24-48 hours out. Only the RGEM had a clue .. we trended from nothing to widespread snow at 24 degrees. Models can certainly still get things wrong at this range but in this scenario I’m not really big on seeing a big ice storm unless we get some pretty drastic changes over the next day or so .. onset ice out west to a dreaded cold rain for all looks to be in the cards here
NAM also trying to give us a nice 35 degree rain for Wednesday night into ThursdayView attachment 131880
Go play the 0z RDPS from start to finish hr 84. Frozen from LA to Southern VA continous over- runing and we rain at 33. Like 3 straight days.
LOL, yes they do, whether it's colder air moving farther south than models say, or path of the low, yes they do fail often.
