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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

Myfrotho704_ said:
That’s very discouraging View attachment 132293
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IIRC, UKMET can be bad with BL temps being too warm, so I’d be interested in seeing what the limiting factor was. If the mid/upper levels are cold enough and it’s only surface temps that are blanking us, I think there’s reason to doubt it.
 
CltNative90 said:
These types of setups, as modeled, are always very fickle and rate driven. Usually a very narrow strip of accumulation with a few lucky lollipops strewn in. Areas outside that strip will see flakes fall, but if the rates aren’t there, little or nothing will accumulate. I remember a similar setup (maybe March 2010 shown below?) when I was home for spring break and local mets were calling for 2-5 inches. I watched it snow for about 3 hours and it never stuck at my house. This setup as modeled would be even more marginal. This would probably be a radar watching/ nowcasting type of event, if it were to play out.
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I was reminded of that storm, too. Also won’t help that we’re going to see record-breaking warm temperatures later this week, so the ground will be sizzling. Of course, if all we get is rain it won’t matter.
 
superjames1992 said:
IIRC, UKMET can be bad with BL temps being too warm, so I’d be interested in seeing what the limiting factor was. If the mid/upper levels are cold enough and it’s only surface temps that are blanking us, I think there’s reason to doubt it.
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It was the track. Too amped up and west.
 
man it's been a while since we've had a ULL magic storm roll along. these storms are like placing a +450 anytime touchdown scorer bet instead of taking the spread (can you tell i'm listening to a superbowl gambling podcast [my forecast- chiefs +1.5]). I think everyone here kind of intrinsically understands the foundation of these storms can be made out of balsa wood but if it hits, you could be in for great rates and possible thundersnow. some decent model consensus of something weird happening
 
CltNative90 said:
These types of setups, as modeled, are always very fickle and rate driven. Usually a very narrow strip of accumulation with a few lucky lollipops strewn in. Areas outside that strip will see flakes fall, but if the rates aren’t there, little or nothing will accumulate. I remember a similar setup (maybe March 2010 shown below?) when I was home for spring break and local mets were calling for 2-5 inches. I watched it snow for about 3 hours and it never stuck at my house. This setup as modeled would be even more marginal. This would probably be a radar watching/ nowcasting type of event, if it were to play out.
View attachment 132296
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Even on the potentially over enthusiastic gfs you can see that it ties the snow to the intense banded precip and it's surrounded by rain. I would hate it for gsp and rah if the gfs verified since it's a bust waiting to happen and they would have no choice but to throw out best guesses on WSW and WWAs but the corridor of any decent accumulations would be far smaller than the advisory coverage
 
SD said:
Even on the potentially over enthusiastic gfs you can see that it ties the snow to the intense banded precip and it's surrounded by rain. I would hate it for gsp and rah if the gfs verified since it's a bust waiting to happen and they would have no choice but to throw out next guesses on WSW and WWAs but the corridor of any decent accumulations would be farb smaller than the advisory coverage
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I'm not sure why but I really don't recall ever scoring a good event with an ULL, seems those bands are always somewhere else
 
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metwannabe said:
I'm not sure why but I really don't recall every scoring a good event with an ULL, seems those bands are always somewhere else
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I'm with you. I've been screwed by them more than snowed in. I still have a screenshot from 2009 when my mom sent me a picture of the radar with a green dot over my house amongst the white.
 
I think the overall issue besides the BL not being great is the pattern is going to want to be progressive either biasing this east or not closing at all. We've toyed around with this look more than once the last 2 winters with obviously not much to show for it. This is the first time the models have dumped enough southwest to cut it off over the deep south vs along the coastal plain or offshore. I'm more concerned about getting something like the 12z Canadian or 0z euro where it's too late than I am BL temps right now
 
Bruh...

ec-fast_z500a_us_6.png
 
packfan98 said:
Yep. Cold rain again. My backyard gets jackpotted with the pink lollipop though!
prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_ma.png
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TBH I'm just glad to see it trended south with an ULL, with this there is time for specifics to work itself out.... at least we have a chance right now
 
packfan98 said:
Agree. It continues the good trend and wasn't a definitive DR. NO run. Just wish it was colder.
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Upper levels were fine, in this setup BL is going to be a problem and will only be mitigated with amp up precip/good rates. Euro in right direction just not there yet, GFS let's face it is over done.... but we're still very close to a good paste job for someone. And it's not lala land
 
BullCityWx said:
It just doesn’t generate the QPF that the GFS does so BL doesn’t cool. It’s in the neighborhood though.

It didn’t cut and that is what is most important to me right now.
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I tend to agree. The tendency for these have been for them to amp up more the closer we get. If it does… maybe we could get lucky
 
Really surprised the Euro didn't show even more of something at the surface with that look at H5. Need a better surface reflection. But that was a relatively dry run and we are sitting in the upper 30's to low 40's. It wouldn't take much to get those down and continue to drift the ULL a little further southwest. Hopefully we can get a bowling ball that really slows under the ridge. Like others said this is going to be a relatively small area to get hit and you want that ULL tracking about 150-200 miles to your south. lets see if we can trend this better.
 
iGRXY said:
Really surprised the Euro didn't show even more of something at the surface with that look at H5. Need a better surface reflection. But that was a relatively dry run and we are sitting in the upper 30's to low 40's. It wouldn't take much to get those down and continue to drift the ULL a little further southwest. Hopefully we can get a bowling ball that really slows under the ridge. Like others said this is going to be a relatively small area to get hit and you want that ULL tracking about 150-200 miles to your south. lets see if we can trend this better.
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Now it's every man, woman, child for themselves.... I'm good with current location just need a little more precip. When the swath of perfection is this narrow might have to put a disclaimer when you want it to trend better Lol
 
metwannabe said:
Now it's every man, woman, child for themselves.... I'm good with current location just need a little more precip. When the swath of perfection is this narrow might have to put a disclaimer when you want it to trend better Lol
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Yup it really is at this point. Even with the good runs today expecting more than flakes in the air and white mulch is probably putting the cart before the horse. The good thing is we are 96-120 out so some consistency should come relatively soon on the models. Once we get that we can dig into BL temps, 850mb low tracks, fgen and all the goods
 
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