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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

Looks like its an American model suite consensus so far. Canadian hopefully comes around at 12z today:

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CNCsnwfan1210 said:
That's a likeable trend if true. Weak low pops up over southern GA on the latest run of the 12k NAM.
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This literally is what needs to happen for this to occur and it's how you can get a last hour Northwest trend for sure. Today's model run should be interesting
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Does it?

View attachment 131955
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I was referring to the time beyond this upcoming borderline/tenuous event - which I hope delivers.

We have not seen an arctic airmass since Christmas and are not predicted to see one for what is left of winter. Not even out into fantasy land. Persistence is the hot hand. You’re taking your chances if you’re not betting on it.


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ATLwxfan said:
I was referring to the time beyond this upcoming borderline/tenuous event - which I hope delivers.

We have not seen an arctic airmass since Christmas and are not predicted to see one for what is left of winter. Not even out into fantasy land. Persistence is the hot hand. You’re taking your chances if you’re not betting on it.


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We’re seeing an Arctic airmass this weekend. Also the SER “dominated” February looks choppy at the very least verbatim on the GFS 1675256801482.gif
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
We’re seeing an Arctic airmass this weekend. Also the SER “dominated” February looks choppy at the very least verbatim on the GFS View attachment 131956
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Ens means are likely to look more ridged
in the E than reality. It's still a normal to above pattern but it's hard to think it's one of those 588 domes sitting over the region for 5-7 days
 
SD said:
Ens means are likely to look more ridged
in the E than reality. It's still a normal to above pattern but it's hard to think it's one of those 588 domes sitting over the region for 5-7 days
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Yeah certainly seeing signs as we get into the medium range that a little ridging pops up out west to give us a dump of some cold and a rabbit out of the hats chance at something if we can get lucky at some point .. I’ll take it I guess
 
SD said:
Ens means are likely to look more ridged
in the E than reality. It's still a normal to above pattern but it's hard to think it's one of those 588 domes sitting over the region for 5-7 days
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Btw, if we continue with some backside snow trends with the 12z model suite I'm going to fire up a winter nuisance thread to keep it out of the main Feb discussion thread.
 
Probably wont work out in the end, but this is your classic case of long range models showing a storm... then takes it away completely in medium range, and then comes back in the short range situation.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Not very encouraging, maybe some IP ?? View attachment 131961View attachment 131962
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I looked at the sounding at the same time on the 3k NAM and the column was saturated. The only thing that was bad was the surface temps. New 12z is rolling out now. Let's see what it says here in a little bit. I definitely trust the 3k NAM more, but hour 54 is way out there for that model that only goes to 60.
 
packfan98 said:
I looked at the sounding at the same time on the 3k NAM and the column was saturated. The only thing that was bad was the surface temps. New 12z is rolling out now. Let's see what it says here in a little bit. I definitely trust the 3k NAM more, but hour 54 is way out there for that model that only goes to 60.
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You need the NAM to be within 6 hours of the event if you want to even get close to the window where you would trust its snowfall output.
 
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