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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

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packfan98 said:
I looked at the sounding at the same time on the 3k NAM and the column was saturated. The only thing that was bad was the surface temps. New 12z is rolling out now. Let's see what it says here in a little bit. I definitely trust the 3k NAM more, but hour 54 is way out there for that model that only goes to 60.
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Yeah, with good rates you can probably extrapolate it to heavy wet snow with temperatures 33-35. I’m a weenie, but I think the models overdo BL temps in these situations when the rest of the column is sufficiently cold. Not great for actual accumulations, but you could see some slush if it lasts long enough.
 
metwannabe said:
My guess is the GFS will throw us one last bone here in a few minutes since FV3 is still doing so

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for what it's worth this is typically where we see northwest trends benefit us; i don't think this is super high leverage and a situation like last year when some minute trough orientation details determine whether we all get flurries or widespread 2-5. the cold air advection is what it is, there will be a tight window where it takes the column cold enough to snow without drying the column out enough for a lucky, narrow strip of folks at a time. some NW adjustments in precip could mean this window stays open a little longer.
 
ILMRoss said:
for what it's worth this is typically where we see northwest trends benefit us; i don't think this is super high leverage and a situation like last year when some minute trough orientation details determine whether we all get flurries or widespread 2-5. the cold air advection is what it is, there will be a tight window where it takes the column cold enough to snow without drying the column out enough for a lucky, narrow strip of folks at a time. some NW adjustments in precip could mean this window stays open a little longer.
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Not sure if I should thank you or curse you for keeping hope alive
 
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