Looks like there is plenty of cold air. Just need a mechanism (-NAO) to get it intrenched in our area. But we really need this to happen soon. I would think this 10-16 day period (fantasy or not) is our last real chance for a board wide storm.
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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
The fact that there is plenty of cold air available is a good sign in that you don’t necessarily need a +PNA and tall western ridge to tap into it. If we can get some help from the NAO it would be nice or just get some good TPV. As for a board wide storm, I think that ship has sailed and south of I-20 and probably south of I-40 is out of the game
We’ve got a 40+ degree swing between Thursday’s highs and Friday’s lows
Looks like the only threat on 2/22 is going to be for record highs:
We are going to be on a very fine line between very warm and stuck in CAD. CMC shows this well but also the gfs has high pressures parading through as well.
Canadian gives us a sleet storm from what appears to be a clipper on D9. Cant say I've seen that before.
That’s a new one. A clipper that strong enough to bring precip east of the mountains should have plenty of cold air aloft
I’ve seen worse mid range looks 
You get a 50/50 low like currently modeled you're going to see a good CAD pattern. Whether it produces winter precip or not is another thing.
iGRXY
Member
SSWE take 3-4 weeks to truly have an impact on the pattern so we likely have about 7-10 days to score some type of winter weather. But if you think you're about to get that warm Spring boy do I have some bad news for you. MJO favorability will help the Pacific go from a disaster to likely more neutral or at least stay above -1 sigma. SSWE helps the Atlantic with high latitude blocking so right now that's favorable, but we are likely going to be stuck in a -PNA/-NAO pattern which means get ready for the CAD and more rain come March and April like usual.
We always talk about potentially wasting a good winter pattern during early periods when we aren't in the heart of winter, well the same can be said for spring time patterns. We have continued to waste H5 patterns that support spring warm ups and severe weather in February before switching back to below average temps and more of a winter time pattern with a -NAO constantly showing up in March-May. This year looks no different TBH. I have a pretty high confidence that everyone in the Carolinas and Georgia outside of the Mountains probably are getting blanked when it comes to snow.
The only perk is that we have legit cold air on our side so getting a nice TPV trapped under the Greenland block is very possible, but that just seems to mean an even colder rain than we are accustomed to in March and April. If we do get something frozen, it is really going to favor ZR/Sleet as the winter airmasses are going to begin to moderate more and more so even if we get a nice piece of TPV trapped under the block it will likely only be cold enough to support a mix bag of stuff vs straight snow.
We always talk about potentially wasting a good winter pattern during early periods when we aren't in the heart of winter, well the same can be said for spring time patterns. We have continued to waste H5 patterns that support spring warm ups and severe weather in February before switching back to below average temps and more of a winter time pattern with a -NAO constantly showing up in March-May. This year looks no different TBH. I have a pretty high confidence that everyone in the Carolinas and Georgia outside of the Mountains probably are getting blanked when it comes to snow.
The only perk is that we have legit cold air on our side so getting a nice TPV trapped under the Greenland block is very possible, but that just seems to mean an even colder rain than we are accustomed to in March and April. If we do get something frozen, it is really going to favor ZR/Sleet as the winter airmasses are going to begin to moderate more and more so even if we get a nice piece of TPV trapped under the block it will likely only be cold enough to support a mix bag of stuff vs straight snow.
olhausen
Member
Damn it!
Snowlover87
Member
It's almost impossible to get Freezing Rain in March or April. Almost every time there's winter precip in March or April it's snow.
If the strat pv totally breaks over the next 2 weeks spring will be spring early April. Any high lat blocking should start to dissolve by then and the mjo should be moving into the warmer phases. The last few years have seen a later pv breakdown which led to us being cold later but we should hopefully move that timeline up this year.
As for snow I wouldn't write it off but the cards are just about on the table that we will see any supportive Atlantic muted by a bad pacific. The are occasional blips from run to run where the models want to rex the pacific. That's great if you want to make a run at a cold potential snow pattern but historically they typically trend progressive. I'm personally not off the snow chance rain for mby I think any nao action gets the I40 corridor in the game but the 20 to 40 corridor needs more help. Ultimately we may just end up extending the pattern out with dual troughs in the west and in the 50/50 region with a sharp gradient pattern across the conus with a wedge in the Carolinas. Pretty mediocre
That was a really really warm euro run, about as classic as a look for record warmth your gonna get, 850s approaching 15+C which is favorable for upper 70s/low 80s, that’s some great weather can’t be any more happier with this 
ATLwxfan
Member
I’m all in. Negative PNA delivering. Should have some beautiful sunny late spring weather for many and accelerating the early blooms and leafing. Judah Cohen joked in his blog about the permanent feature the SER plays in our weather.
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ATLwxfan
Member
GEFS also showing quite a bit of warming over Canada as we get into the beginning of March which should put a damper on any hope for wintery weather. Could change of course.
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Subseasonal forecasting has truly made long range forecasting much easier, the jig was up it looked like forcing was returning to the MC/lowering AAM (-)/big -EAMT event back in mid jan that helped start the retraction of the pacific jet in the last few weeks of January. The maritime MJO pulse was the nail in the coffin and is still present, which is gonna be a big driver to this warmer pattern. as said in mid jan by me and some others, the signs of a really really warm Feb was there, with a lack of snow overall, other than an outside chance. 
ATLwxfan
Member
And that lack of snow has been the case for a very long time…
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Man you can’t get better then this ???
Man you can’t get better than this! ???
