Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

[CNCsnwfan1210]

9 run trend of the GFS slowly backing the precip further NW and slowing this exiting wave down. 9 runs ago, Alabama and parts of North GA was nearly dry at this time step, now the current run shows rain still falling Friday morning.

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[NickyBGuarantee]

Either american models are really poor or they are onto something with more precip than others. We will be able to nowcast this fairly easily with radar trends come Thursday evening.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

We're at the 48 hour and less time frame now, so hopefully someone can get something out of this.

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[Metwannabe]

Either american models are really poor or they are onto something with more precip than others. We will be able to nowcast this fairly easily with radar trends come Thursday evening.

I'm like Shane, I've seen this movie before, ending never changes

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Something isn’t right

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Something isn’t right View attachment 131972

we would need high rates which just does not appear likely. Womp

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

I guess my argument would be and like @ILMRoss mentioned, if the precip can last long enough to allow more time for the colder air to work in. Maybe at least a mix for a brief time would be a possibility.

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[ILMRoss]

Something isn’t right View attachment 131972

what may be going on here is that the sounding is an instantaneous snapshot of 12z, but the precip is totaled from the previous 6 hours. shows the strength of the cold air advection and how quickly the sinking air will dry things out

 

[Mitch West]

The CAD going on in the Carolinas is pretty gnarly this afternoon. If we can't get snow, at least I can appreciate a good CAD temp gradient. I have made it to 72 degrees here in Lexington.

 

[NCSNOW]

Only goes out to 48 hrs

Canadian, Ukmet, RDPS show Nada still at 12z

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

A fine example of pain right here

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[CaryWx]

Heck, I've got hits on 12 of 20 on those ensembles. Wish it made me feel more confident I'll see something.

 

[KyloG]

Well the good news...it can't be any worse next year. NYC to PHL to DC all a disaster too.

 

[packfan98]

Heck, I've got hits on 12 of 20 on those ensembles. Wish it made me feel more confident I'll see something.

Yeah, I'm afraid the low resolution of those is really missing the nuance of the setup.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

If we can get the precip and if it can be far enough north then yes we could see snow. But we will just have to wait and see how radar trends look as we get closer

 

[olhausen]

Ended up under an Ice storm warning last night. Driving home from work last night with icy Trees hangin over me was a bit unsettling.
Here’s pics of Trees from yesterday afternoon from ZR the night before. This was before last nights ZR started so they are much worse now. I’ll get some pics on the way to work tonight.

This is from this morning. The grass is crunching when I walk on it.

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

Well the good news...it can't be any worse next year. NYC to PHL to DC all a disaster too.

View attachment 131973

That's exactly right. Nothing is as bad as it gets and can't be topped. Warmest January at RDU since 1990. Ironically that followed the frigid Christmas of 89. I had a bad feeling when the pattern flipped to horrible end of Dec we were headed down that road. Whats worse is what followed Jan 1990. No more measurable snow until March 93 in GSO and a lot of Central NC I think.

 

[TileDude]

Alabama the mud capital of the country.

 

[ATLwxfan]

Well the good news...it can't be any worse next year. NYC to PHL to DC all a disaster too.

View attachment 131973

It could be as worse though. Given how the last few years have gone, it’s a distinct possibility. Though I doubt I-95 fares as badly.


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