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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

That cold incursion from Canada definitely flattened more eastward and pressing down on the ridge better on the 12z for sure.
 
It would not shock me to see a crazy sequence of model runs where this trends south of I 20 and then trends a bit back north. Especially if that PV gets stronger.


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We better be wishcasting and hope this Trends To a Snowier look if Not CAD Areas could be in trouble. I don't know why anyone would want Ice

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Remember to take these ice maps with a large dose of salt. Of course we know they could happen (Feb 94, Dec 02,05) but these are very unlikely, especially the extreme totals. We have seen these models spit out maps like this consistently over the past few years with very little actual ice to happen in the real world. The trend has been for these to verify a bit colder at the mid levels and produce more sleet with a transition to either rain or ice in the warm or cold sectors. No guarantee that would happen with this system of course, but I wouldn't freak out about the ice yet.

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Remember to take these ice maps with a large dose of salt. Of course we know they could happen (Feb 94, Dec 02,05) but these are very unlikely, especially the extreme totals. We have seen these models spit out maps like this consistently over the past few years with very little actual ice to happen in the real world. The trend has been for these to verify a bit colder at the mid levels and produce more sleet with a transition to either rain or ice in the warm or cold sectors. No guarantee that would happen with this system of course, but I wouldn't freak out about the ice yet.

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FRAM already accounts for melting, runoff, temps, etc so these totals aren't really that far off. Especially considering most of this fell in mid 20's as well. We could get some front end FGEN driven snow, but depending on the LP track we absolutely could be dealing with a serious ice storm potential here.
 
Remember to take these ice maps with a large dose of salt. Of course we know they could happen (Feb 94, Dec 02,05) but these are very unlikely, especially the extreme totals. We have seen these models spit out maps like this consistently over the past few years with very little actual ice to happen in the real world. The trend has been for these to verify a bit colder at the mid levels and produce more sleet with a transition to either rain or ice in the warm or cold sectors. No guarantee that would happen with this system of course, but I wouldn't freak out about the ice yet.

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Well climatology speaking we all know the CAD areas ate way overdue for an Ice Storm and this setup Screams that. But honestly I could see this end up as one of those Mixed storms Snow/Sleet/ZR

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I would never trust precip. amounts at 10days. Not snow, not sleet, not freezing rain, or even plain ole rain. The idea is there precipitation will fall but measured amounts?--Best to wait
 
Remember to take these ice maps with a large dose of salt. Of course we know they could happen (Feb 94, Dec 02,05) but these are very unlikely, especially the extreme totals. We have seen these models spit out maps like this consistently over the past few years with very little actual ice to happen in the real world. The trend has been for these to verify a bit colder at the mid levels and produce more sleet with a transition to either rain or ice in the warm or cold sectors. No guarantee that would happen with this system of course, but I wouldn't freak out about the ice yet.

fram_acc-imp.us_ov.png
Yes and we have certainly seen how many times what appeared to be huge ice storms turned into big sleet storms like last January. The thing that gives me pause here is how warm the models keep southern GA and Florida during that time. Widespread 70s and some 80s… very reminiscent of February 1994
 
Remember to take these ice maps with a large dose of salt. Of course we know they could happen (Feb 94, Dec 02,05) but these are very unlikely, especially the extreme totals. We have seen these models spit out maps like this consistently over the past few years with very little actual ice to happen in the real world. The trend has been for these to verify a bit colder at the mid levels and produce more sleet with a transition to either rain or ice in the warm or cold sectors. No guarantee that would happen with this system of course, but I wouldn't freak out about the ice yet.

fram_acc-imp.us_ov.png
You can add Feb 1989 and Jan 1999 to that list of major icestorms too. This would probably either trend to sleet or rain though. Hopefully sleet.
 
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