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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

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Setting up a harder cold press for the next round with a 1043 HP sliding southeast.
 
NCHighCountryWX said:
Be wary... 2 days ago my co-workers in St Louis were under NAM 3K and HRRR accumulations of 9 to 11 inches within 10 hours of the event on Tuesday night. They barely got an inch.

It's not just the Carolinas that are struggling with the pattern.
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No guarantees until something is falling from the sky. After years of tracking, it's the only way to be. Enjoy the ride.
 
With that look on the GFS now we need a bit stronger system unless you want non accumulating snow.
 
Brick Tamland said:
10 days out as always.
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The pieces we need for this to come together are much closer than you think. This is an actual storm we can trend to if we keep the ship steady to the course. As many have said there is a fine line between something and nothing. But you can’t hate favorable trends inside 200 hours with how our years gone
 
My take looking at the Ukmet/GFS/CMC... we still have no clue what will happen. Ukmet doesn't have any stream separation at 144hrs... CMC hangs it back enough that it's a crushing Ice storm with CAD high actually moving out before it's over. GFS somewhere in between but close to the CMC, just not as much separation. It could go any direction at this point. Would really like to see the Euro look similar to the CMC.
 
JHS said:
That 1st storm could have been worse in SC if the cold air had come in faster. We lost around .5 or so here to just rain, before the colder air got here after dark. That storm gave my area a ton of ice and we had big chunks of it under trees after it fell off. We did not get that to happen in 1999 or 2002. I am not sure how we kept power through it. We wasted at least 4-5 inches of snow here with the 2nd one because the temp stayed at around 33 most of the day. We should have had at least 7-8 inches on the ground but did not.
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Yeah that 2nd storm was definitely fighting the late February sun angle. My parents house in Concord ended up with close to 9 inches on the ground and it definitely could have been over a foot if it had been a few degrees colder…never managed to get more that 2-3 inches during the day, but really started to pile up from about 6 pm until it ended about 3am the following… that storm would end up being the last time KCLT would get a snowfall of 1” or more until March 1993
 
I think the Ukmet is probably wrong here b/c the ICON/GFS/CMC all have a similar looking wave in the Gulf of California at 144hrs, but the ukmet doesn't.

I think the gulf of california is a good spot for it at that point for us... a lot hinges on the cold press and just how quickly and how far south and east the PV lobe drops.
 
rburrel2 said:
I think the Ukmet is probably wrong here b/c the ICON/GFS/CMC all have a similar looking wave in the Gulf of California at 144hrs, but the ukmet doesn't.

I think the gulf of california is a good spot for it at that point for us... a lot hinges on the cold press and just how quickly and how far south and east the PV lobe drops.
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I’d be cautious the UK has been a butt sniffer this winter, it’s been pretty good
 
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