• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

That cold incursion from Canada definitely flattened more eastward and pressing down on the ridge better on the 12z for sure.
 
It would not shock me to see a crazy sequence of model runs where this trends south of I 20 and then trends a bit back north. Especially if that PV gets stronger.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
We better be wishcasting and hope this Trends To a Snowier look if Not CAD Areas could be in trouble. I don't know why anyone would want Ice

Sent from my SM-A526U using Tapatalk
 
Remember to take these ice maps with a large dose of salt. Of course we know they could happen (Feb 94, Dec 02,05) but these are very unlikely, especially the extreme totals. We have seen these models spit out maps like this consistently over the past few years with very little actual ice to happen in the real world. The trend has been for these to verify a bit colder at the mid levels and produce more sleet with a transition to either rain or ice in the warm or cold sectors. No guarantee that would happen with this system of course, but I wouldn't freak out about the ice yet.

fram_acc-imp.us_ov.png
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Remember to take these ice maps with a large dose of salt. Of course we know they could happen (Feb 94, Dec 02,05) but these are very unlikely, especially the extreme totals. We have seen these models spit out maps like this consistently over the past few years with very little actual ice to happen in the real world. The trend has been for these to verify a bit colder at the mid levels and produce more sleet with a transition to either rain or ice in the warm or cold sectors. No guarantee that would happen with this system of course, but I wouldn't freak out about the ice yet.

fram_acc-imp.us_ov.png
Click to expand...
FRAM already accounts for melting, runoff, temps, etc so these totals aren't really that far off. Especially considering most of this fell in mid 20's as well. We could get some front end FGEN driven snow, but depending on the LP track we absolutely could be dealing with a serious ice storm potential here.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Remember to take these ice maps with a large dose of salt. Of course we know they could happen (Feb 94, Dec 02,05) but these are very unlikely, especially the extreme totals. We have seen these models spit out maps like this consistently over the past few years with very little actual ice to happen in the real world. The trend has been for these to verify a bit colder at the mid levels and produce more sleet with a transition to either rain or ice in the warm or cold sectors. No guarantee that would happen with this system of course, but I wouldn't freak out about the ice yet.

fram_acc-imp.us_ov.png
Click to expand...
Well climatology speaking we all know the CAD areas ate way overdue for an Ice Storm and this setup Screams that. But honestly I could see this end up as one of those Mixed storms Snow/Sleet/ZR

Sent from my SM-A526U using Tapatalk
 
I would never trust precip. amounts at 10days. Not snow, not sleet, not freezing rain, or even plain ole rain. The idea is there precipitation will fall but measured amounts?--Best to wait
 
CaryWx said:
I would never trust precip. amounts at 10days. Not snow, not sleet, not freezing rain, or even plain ole rain. The idea is there precipitation will fall but measured amounts?--Best to wait
Click to expand...
It doesn't take much Ice to Wreak havoc!

Sent from my SM-A526U using Tapatalk
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Remember to take these ice maps with a large dose of salt. Of course we know they could happen (Feb 94, Dec 02,05) but these are very unlikely, especially the extreme totals. We have seen these models spit out maps like this consistently over the past few years with very little actual ice to happen in the real world. The trend has been for these to verify a bit colder at the mid levels and produce more sleet with a transition to either rain or ice in the warm or cold sectors. No guarantee that would happen with this system of course, but I wouldn't freak out about the ice yet.

fram_acc-imp.us_ov.png
Click to expand...
Yes and we have certainly seen how many times what appeared to be huge ice storms turned into big sleet storms like last January. The thing that gives me pause here is how warm the models keep southern GA and Florida during that time. Widespread 70s and some 80s… very reminiscent of February 1994
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Remember to take these ice maps with a large dose of salt. Of course we know they could happen (Feb 94, Dec 02,05) but these are very unlikely, especially the extreme totals. We have seen these models spit out maps like this consistently over the past few years with very little actual ice to happen in the real world. The trend has been for these to verify a bit colder at the mid levels and produce more sleet with a transition to either rain or ice in the warm or cold sectors. No guarantee that would happen with this system of course, but I wouldn't freak out about the ice yet.

fram_acc-imp.us_ov.png
Click to expand...
You can add Feb 1989 and Jan 1999 to that list of major icestorms too. This would probably either trend to sleet or rain though. Hopefully sleet.
 
iGRXY said:
FRAM already accounts for melting, runoff, temps, etc so these totals aren't really that far off. Especially considering most of this fell in mid 20's as well. We could get some front end FGEN driven snow, but depending on the LP track we absolutely could be dealing with a serious ice storm potential here.
Click to expand...
Yeah perhaps big time if temps get that low. Most of our icestorms have happened with temps around 30-32. Mid 20's would be a game changer for sure, esoecially if this airmass really got locked in and it stayed that cold a long time. Our only hope would be sleet.
 
Pivotal is slow. Got stuck at hr 108 forever. Someone with another subscription getting the Euro faster? Give us a PBP.
 
Snownut said:
It doesn't take much Ice to Wreak havoc!

Sent from my SM-A526U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
.20 or more generally speaking. That is a holding state of accumulation though not melting away. Granted some areas (aged infra and heavy growth flora) lose power with less if susceptible to any or little surface icing at all.
 
Euro may cut here. Have to kick it out and shear when the vortex over the lakes is maxed out to the south otherwise there's not much to stop the SER response and a cut.

Edit there might be enough energy moving through the lakes and northern plains on the euro to help but we are opening bad doors imo
 
It’s a sensitive setup, and you can win 2 ways,
Dig the main shortwave, progressive the TPV-northern steam east quicker, build heights behind the TPV which creates descent in all levels allowing a cold trailing high = CAD when the S/W moves in
Or move the TPV south enough that it drags the height field down, shunts the system south and brings colder air south, first option can go wrong because to much amplification, second option can go wrong from wave shearing, or cutting from N/S or pacific energy dropping into the cutoff
 
packfan98 said:
Looks like we might be missing a strong high pressure this run? The PV is in a more favorable position though for a cold press.
Click to expand...
Yeah… either one would work. Honestly if the PV is in a better position… there might be more snow as opposed to ice. The problem with that though is too strong a PV everything gets pushed out too fast.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top