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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

iGRXY said:
FRAM already accounts for melting, runoff, temps, etc so these totals aren't really that far off. Especially considering most of this fell in mid 20's as well. We could get some front end FGEN driven snow, but depending on the LP track we absolutely could be dealing with a serious ice storm potential here.
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Yeah perhaps big time if temps get that low. Most of our icestorms have happened with temps around 30-32. Mid 20's would be a game changer for sure, esoecially if this airmass really got locked in and it stayed that cold a long time. Our only hope would be sleet.
 
iGRXY said:
1674972000-tWlvBLqkytQ.png

Already pumping the Western Ridge more in the short range
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This is something that I noticed when looking at the teleconnections this morning. The PNA has been trending to go positive in the 2/1-2/5 timeframe the last several days.
 
Pivotal is slow. Got stuck at hr 108 forever. Someone with another subscription getting the Euro faster? Give us a PBP.
 
Snownut said:
It doesn't take much Ice to Wreak havoc!

Sent from my SM-A526U using Tapatalk
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.20 or more generally speaking. That is a holding state of accumulation though not melting away. Granted some areas (aged infra and heavy growth flora) lose power with less if susceptible to any or little surface icing at all.
 
Euro may cut here. Have to kick it out and shear when the vortex over the lakes is maxed out to the south otherwise there's not much to stop the SER response and a cut.

Edit there might be enough energy moving through the lakes and northern plains on the euro to help but we are opening bad doors imo
 
It’s a sensitive setup, and you can win 2 ways,
Dig the main shortwave, progressive the TPV-northern steam east quicker, build heights behind the TPV which creates descent in all levels allowing a cold trailing high = CAD when the S/W moves in
Or move the TPV south enough that it drags the height field down, shunts the system south and brings colder air south, first option can go wrong because to much amplification, second option can go wrong from wave shearing, or cutting from N/S or pacific energy dropping into the cutoff
 
packfan98 said:
Looks like we might be missing a strong high pressure this run? The PV is in a more favorable position though for a cold press.
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Yeah… either one would work. Honestly if the PV is in a better position… there might be more snow as opposed to ice. The problem with that though is too strong a PV everything gets pushed out too fast.
 
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