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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

griteater said:
My little ‘rule’ is that from days 7 down to 4, we don’t need to be seeing the perfect, awesome solution, but we need to be headed in the right direction. So, by kickoff of the Eagles/49ers game (Day 4)
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Another wait for the weekend to see if this looks more real eh? I can say I have a higher confidence (albeit slightly) than what we were hoping for at end of month awhile back
 
KyloG said:
EPS trend as with the GEFS is for separation which I think is what we want but trying to figure out how this ends up biting us.

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The stream separation, as we know is good. But what we need is a distinct northern wave, running across the northern tier just ahead of the southern wave and then out east into the Atlantic, allowing HP to slide into a favorable position. What we don't need is a northern stream wave glancing the northeast tip of MN and heading rapidly toward Newfoundland. In order to avoid the latter, we need the PV pressing to the SE. The flow up there seems pretty fast. So if that's going to be the case, then we need really good timing, which has been pointed out. At least we're kind of in the game and not torching ourselves to death unendingly.
 
12-18 hours slower with the southern wave, and a little more amped up and most of this board would be happy campers. Especially ice storm mongers such as myself.

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griteater said:
Yeah GFS is a little better / a little farther south with the cold press TPV, but need the southern wave to be farther south and have it come out a 1/2 day later. Not far off
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If we could get the cold press of the GFS with a little better s/w like the euro/cmc we would really be cooking with grease.
 
GFS following suit with all other models .. the ways of getting this event are a bit different on all but EPS did look similar to what the GFS is showing .. we’re making these trends within 180 hours now .. most positive trend we’ve had this close to go time than we’ve had all year
 
Very interesting that their was very little ice with that run though, unlike what the other models are showing.
 
ATLwxfan said:
It would not shock me to see a crazy sequence of model runs where this trends south of I 20 and then trends a bit back north. Especially if that PV gets stronger.


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Ehem…


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mrdaddyman said:
Very interesting that their was very little ice with that run though, unlike what the other models are showing.
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Yeah, that was a timing issue. If the shortwave came through a little later, there would have been more ice. Also, we’ve seen various depictions of the high pressure to our north with respect to both position and strength. Throw in the PV position and there’s lots of moving parts.
 
There is quite a bit of variability on the strength of the CAD and cold push from the northwest on the GEFS members at 138 hours. Uncertainty is increasing? It appears that the low level cold air is tough to model. The upper air features seem to be less unstable. The difference between rain and freezing rain and sleet really is a tough call in many areas in the western part of the southeast and Carolinas.
 
weatherfide said:
There is quite a bit of variability on the strength of the CAD and cold push from the northwest on the GEFS members at 138 hours. Uncertainty is increasing? It appears that the low level cold air is tough to model. The upper air features seem to be less unstable. The difference between rain and freezing rain and sleet really is a tough call in many areas in the western part of the southeast and Carolinas.
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I think we should follow more of what the EURO and CMC and their ensembles are telling us because they’ve been the most consistent in showing this set up.. but I think it’s just nice to see that even the GFS is giving us a set up with some winter precip but I have a feeling it’ll trend more the euro and eps way with time
 
GEFS looks to support more of a CAD type set up with much more ice involved vs what the operational GFS showed I think that’s more of the event we’re trending towards. Also we need to watch that finger of precip that gets here before the “main storm” that has been continuing to trend more tilted and therefor CAD is able to leak in sooner and set the stage for the main event
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I think we should follow more of what the EURO and CMC and their ensembles are telling us because they’ve been the most consistent in showing this set up.. but I think it’s just nice to see that even the GFS is giving us a set up with some winter precip but I have a feeling it’ll trend more the euro and eps way with time
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I think this is our best chance. I also have no confidence in any modeled outcome. I like the CMC ensemble showing the varied outcomes. Everything from a major winter event to just rain to nothing at all. It's all on the table.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
GEFS looks to support more of a CAD type set up with much more ice involved vs what the operational GFS showed I think that’s more of the event we’re trending towards. Also we need to watch that finger of precip that gets here before the “main storm” that has been continuing to trend more tilted and therefor CAD is able to leak in sooner and set the stage for the main event
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Yeah I’d agree with that. Ice to snow as it ends.

Uptick on QPF this run, it seems
 
If I was in NC I would be getting pretty interested in this possibility, especially areas north of I-40 and the Eastern half. For SC and GA this is going to be tough as its showing; we really need to slow down that southern wave and get a better cold push out front. That's certainly still on the table so look for that going forward. Unfortunately climo says precip usually arrives a bit faster and cold is usually delayed.

Even just a little negative NAO would help slow the upper flow and increase the cold press farther south.
 
Just comparing the 12z CMC to the 18z GFS, the CMC really holds that piece of cutoff energy back in the SW and the GFS moves it through a lot faster. Seems in the past the American model had a tendency to hold our southern stream waves back for days on end and was one of the reasons it was so bad. Now it’s the faster of the two. Just an observation
 
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