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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

Best look under hour 200 this winter...

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There is quite a bit of variability on the strength of the CAD and cold push from the northwest on the GEFS members at 138 hours. Uncertainty is increasing? It appears that the low level cold air is tough to model. The upper air features seem to be less unstable. The difference between rain and freezing rain and sleet really is a tough call in many areas in the western part of the southeast and Carolinas.
 
weatherfide said:
There is quite a bit of variability on the strength of the CAD and cold push from the northwest on the GEFS members at 138 hours. Uncertainty is increasing? It appears that the low level cold air is tough to model. The upper air features seem to be less unstable. The difference between rain and freezing rain and sleet really is a tough call in many areas in the western part of the southeast and Carolinas.
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I think we should follow more of what the EURO and CMC and their ensembles are telling us because they’ve been the most consistent in showing this set up.. but I think it’s just nice to see that even the GFS is giving us a set up with some winter precip but I have a feeling it’ll trend more the euro and eps way with time
 
GEFS looks to support more of a CAD type set up with much more ice involved vs what the operational GFS showed I think that’s more of the event we’re trending towards. Also we need to watch that finger of precip that gets here before the “main storm” that has been continuing to trend more tilted and therefor CAD is able to leak in sooner and set the stage for the main event
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I think we should follow more of what the EURO and CMC and their ensembles are telling us because they’ve been the most consistent in showing this set up.. but I think it’s just nice to see that even the GFS is giving us a set up with some winter precip but I have a feeling it’ll trend more the euro and eps way with time
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I think this is our best chance. I also have no confidence in any modeled outcome. I like the CMC ensemble showing the varied outcomes. Everything from a major winter event to just rain to nothing at all. It's all on the table.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
GEFS looks to support more of a CAD type set up with much more ice involved vs what the operational GFS showed I think that’s more of the event we’re trending towards. Also we need to watch that finger of precip that gets here before the “main storm” that has been continuing to trend more tilted and therefor CAD is able to leak in sooner and set the stage for the main event
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Yeah I’d agree with that. Ice to snow as it ends.

Uptick on QPF this run, it seems
 
Anyone got Gef panels from 18z, or does it only show em every 12 hrs (0z and 12z)?Thanks in advance!
 
If I was in NC I would be getting pretty interested in this possibility, especially areas north of I-40 and the Eastern half. For SC and GA this is going to be tough as its showing; we really need to slow down that southern wave and get a better cold push out front. That's certainly still on the table so look for that going forward. Unfortunately climo says precip usually arrives a bit faster and cold is usually delayed.

Even just a little negative NAO would help slow the upper flow and increase the cold press farther south.
 
Just comparing the 12z CMC to the 18z GFS, the CMC really holds that piece of cutoff energy back in the SW and the GFS moves it through a lot faster. Seems in the past the American model had a tendency to hold our southern stream waves back for days on end and was one of the reasons it was so bad. Now it’s the faster of the two. Just an observation
 
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