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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

Locally this ain't a wintry look

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Barely even snow on me in Roanoke is not a good sign for everyone else south of me but we have a system to watch
 
Love where the Euro is at right now when you consider the Ukmet has no stream separation and the GFS could use a little more.

I'll take my chances with the slower s/w and risk of cutting/miller B... because it gives more time for CAD to build in with the favorable high pressure location. Even with the Euro going gangbusters with the s/w and sending a primary into Western Kentucky... it still gets a significant ice storm for the Western Piedmont of NC.
 
You could make a case that the euro is likely too warm from 2m to 925 given the upstream airmass but at 192 hours it's not worth digging that deeply in. Speaking for mby hoping that the wedge wins with a vertically stacked 1005 low over BNA is fools gold
 
I hate to be a weenie but you'd think with that source region and the low dewpoints on the Euro there would be a lot stronger/colder surface wedge front that blasts through the piedmont. With how strong the high pressure is moving in to an ideal location with a primary pulling west of the apps... I'd expect one heck of a wedge front and not a slow bleed down of surface temps like it's showing.
Myfrotho704_ said:
That’s airmass in SE Canada is ridiculously cold, but we need more amplification in the overall wave pattern. It’s to progressive View attachment 131409
Click to expand...
 
I get a week in the 40's and low 50's except for maybe Monday and Tuesday, with off and on light rain. That's better than a severe weather setup and I'll gladly take it! It's fire weather, too! I don't lose power and I'm at work for most of it.

Tornadoes are off the table so far on all of the model outputs I've seen.
 
rburrel2 said:
I hate to be a weenie but you'd think with that source region and the low dewpoints on the Euro there would be a lot stronger/colder surface wedge front that blasts through the piedmont. With how strong the high pressure is moving in to an ideal location with a primary pulling west of the apps... I'd expect one heck of a wedge front and not a slow bleed down of surface temps like it's showing.
Click to expand...
Once that HP starts moving, it flies. Obviously, there's usually a trend towards colder surface temperatures if it's locked in place, but everything seems progressive here. Timing is going to be headache with the players here.
 
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