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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

Snowlove33 said:
So basically the storm we tracking is a North Carolina/Tennessee north storm right?
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Right now it looks that way. Who knows how it will turn out, pretty much anything still on the table at this range, but most of the models not showing enough of a cold punch fast enough for other areas. As Jimmy said we really need a slower wave with a stronger cold punch or sharper trough to bring down the cold farther south and faster.
 
Euro looks a lot more like the GFS now, definitely a good VA thump. Although looks like it has two phases of precip
 
Big Va. storm! Euro doesn't have much cold air either, hope this trends colder in future runs cause NC has no room to spare, and Va. doesn't have much to play with either. If not it's another cold rain for most.
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Never been a fan of setups like this where the cold air trails behind the moisture. It's a recipe for busting badly low in the snow & ice department.

Although I know some here don't think patterns matter much at all, that's exactly what this map has been telling me for days & I honestly don't think there's enough time to fix that.

You need the vortex over Labrador & Quebec to dig further to the SE, the trailing ridge out west to at least reach the Great Lakes, and the shortwave over the Southern Plains to be roughly over southern Arizona at this time step to allow the cold air a better chance to filter in before the moisture shows up. Sure, it's 7 days out, but I'm not sure we see the changes needed to make all of that happen.

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It’s very hard to get a good snow storm transition after heavy rain. Any changeover would likely just melt on top of the water anyways. It would likely be limited to elevated surfaces like the roof or shrubs.
 
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6z GFS kept most of the snow in VA. Here are kuchean totals:

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You could say this is better for the Triad but worse for the Triangle. Still days to track this but currently the trend has pushed this northward.
 
6z gfs is a little misleading in Virginia I doubt those heavy totals given heavy rain and marginal temps. North of the route 460 counties have a chance as you get closer to north Virginia. Its heavy rain to 32 snow would likely be a slop mess of slush.
 
Here's RAH:

"Thereafter, an extended period of wet and unsettled conditions is
looking increasingly likely during the mid to late week period.
Continued perturbed moist SW flow aloft between a vigorous shortwave
trough/upper low over the SW US and on the NW periphery of
subtropical ridging over the Bahamas/southwestern Atlantic will fuel
episodes of isentropic lift along a frontal zone oscillating over
the SE US. While the latest round of deterministic model guidance
suggests the boundary will generally stay south of the area,
ensemble guidance indicates continued high spread with respect to
the location of the front. Temperatures will be highly dependent on
the exact location of this frontal, with CAD conditions very
possible across the climatologically favored Piedmont counties. With
that said, expect some sort of NW to SE temperature gradient area,
potentially ranging from below normal across the north to seasonable
or above normal temperatures across the SE. Finally, rain should be
the primary precip type through at least Thursday. Thereafter, the
uncertain arrival of Canadian air into the area will likely hold off
until the weekend, which could yield increasing chances for wintry
precip as additional moisture overspreads the area from the SW. Stay
tuned."
 
Our SW Energy Ejecting has sped up by over 24 hours on all the models. This was a Saturday deal and now its Thursday into early Friday. Long gone by Saturday. That is not the trend we need. Need it to reverse back in order to have a chance and catch the cold air at the right time for frozen. The DRIVE-BY shooting style cold air we have to work with is pretty much stayed the course as advertised. By the second half of the day Friday into Saturday the HP filling in behind the PV Gyre that is sliding off NE, can give us what we need. The slower the energy ejects out of the SW, the better chance to see frozen precip futher south than whats being depicted. Earlier, the cold wont catch it. I think it will be easier/ doable at H5 to root for the energy in the SW to slow down more so than the Cold air window we have Friday into Saturday to speed up.

Here's last night euro at 0z

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Compared to Tuesday mid day run

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Don’t want to burst anyone’s bubble here but the odds of what the GFS are showing are EXTREMELY low. 1 it’s cold chasing moisture granted from north to south but that is a very delicate progression to make that happen. If we are to get a storm your best odds is to get some type of CAD. This VA/NC vs the rest of the board nonsense has about a 2% chance of happening. I said it yesterday, the only realistic chance we have at a storm would require the pieces to line up where everyone gets hit. You drop the TPV south and you get a snowier solution but run a very very high risk of shearing and suppressing everything. Best odds is hoping you get a HP sliding east in tandem and building in a strong CAD that can hold on to low level cold even as a high is sliding out of favorable position. Pretty much anyone from southern VA and south need the same thing to happen if you have a chance at any frozen
 
NCSNOW said:
Our SW Energy Ejecting has sped up by over 24 hours on all the models. This was a Saturday deal and now it’s Thursday into early Friday. Long gone by Saturday. That is not the trend we need. Need it to reverse back in order to have a chance and catch the cold air at the right time for frozen. The DRIVE-BY shooting style cold air we have to work with is pretty much stayed the course as advertised. By the second half of the day Friday into Saturday the HP filling in behind the PV Gyre that is sliding off NE, can give us what we need. The slower the energy ejects out of the SW, the better chance to see frozen precip futher south than whats being depicted. Earlier, the cold wont catch it. I think it will be easier/ doable at H5 to root for the energy in the SW to slow down more so than the Cold air window we have Friday into Saturday to speed up.
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Tbh energy has tended to trend to slower coming out the southwest 9/10x as we get closer. Mostly because the opposite is what usually happens where we need SW to eject faster to catch the cold air vs the opposite happening now. Again it’s such a fine balance bc you slow down the SW too much and you get moisture chasing exiting cold. Right now it’s cold chasing moisture, granted from a north to south orientation which has better chance of working but not by a lot. The best chance is that you get a HP that can get about a 6 hour head start to help build in cold air ahead of it and they move in tandem from there. This is all of nothing type of deal. EitherEveryone from the NC/VA border get hit or nobody is here east of the mountsins
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Favoring I-40-VA with this setup. We’re speeding up the shortwave which is no bueno, not a fan of rain to snow setups. We need a deeper digging cold vortex, slower S/W, and higher heights trailing the TPV
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To me, a layman weenie, the cold is just not in time; and not far enough east to dig and CAD east of the mountains.
 
SnowNiner said:
To me, a layman weenie, the cold is just not in time; and not far enough east to dig and CAD east of the mountains.
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Timing differences. That's almost always going to be the case when you're a week or more out. I know some need to see the perfect pattern before even considering wintry weather, but the fact is, most of our winter events come in imperfect patterns and are largely a function of fortunate timing.

A misjudged piece of energy in the flow a few days out actually can make a big difference in how things play out, particularly when you have very cold air nearby.

Is the pattern ideal? No. Is the threat of a big winter storm extremely high? No. Would we be enthusiastic at all if all of the cold air was on the other side of the globe? No. But when we were all promised the big torch and we actually end up with the ability to discuss a potential winter event or two, I guess that's a good thing and something most weather enthusiasts who visit weather forums enjoy.
 
Rain Cold said:
Timing differences. That's almost always going to be the case when you're a week or more out. I know some need to see the perfect pattern before even considering wintry weather, but the fact is, most of our winter events come in imperfect patterns and are largely a function of fortunate timing.

A misjudged piece of energy in the flow a few days out actually can make a big difference in how things play out, particularly when you have very cold air nearby.

Is the pattern ideal? No. Is the threat of a big winter storm extremely high? No. Would we be enthusiastic at all if all of the cold air was on the other side of the globe? No. But when we were all promised the big torch and we actually end up with the ability to discuss a potential winter event or two, I guess that's a good thing and something most weather enthusiasts who visit weather forums enjoy.
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That is the cool thing, lol... the coldest air in the hemisphere is close by in eastern Canada. Hope we can tap into it the next few weeks.

I completely think something can happen here. I just don't like the current looks. Hopefully the cold gets ahead of the shortwave more and the timing improves.
 
It is just too progressive with the lobe in Canada. Blocking off the coast of Canada is weak and to the east. Cold air doesn't come in south and west enough. No problem having some SE ridge if there was more push from the North. Unless something slows the northern stream down cold air won't get south. Trends are not our friends right now!
 
At least the Euro is showing something now. I think that last op run was better for folks in the northern half of NC to see snow compared to its previous run. GFS is going to go back and forth of course. The good thing is we have an actual threat inside 7 days for a change.
 
metwannabe said:
Best I can tell on crappy free 06z EPS maps out to 144, SER a tick stronger, cold push a tick north, not good sign.... need a turnaround on the 12z runs today
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What has this season brought us and why should we expect it to change? Just not enough cold east of the Mississippi this year and no blocking so everything is so transient no cold can lock in.
 
WEATHERBOYROY said:
It is just too progressive with the lobe in Canada. Blocking off the coast of Canada is weak and to the east. Cold air doesn't come in south and west enough. No problem having some SE ridge if there was more push from the North. Unless something slows the northern stream down cold air won't get south. Trends are not our friends right now!
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I think the more doable way to save the day is for the ULL out west to dig further south into northern Mexico with more separation and stronger which would slow the eastward progression while creating more confluence in the Midwest and NE inducing a stronger HP for a legitimate CAD. Unfortunately, the opposite has been the trend of late.
 
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This is a pretty good setup with this look on the 12z run on the 25th. This is the 6z feb 2 forecast.

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This looks hopeless to me for all but maybe Virginia. This is the forecast for the same 6z feb 2. It is 144 hrs out, so a lot can change, but the blocking in eastern Canada is trending worse.
 
rburrel2 said:
Great trend with the 12z ICON with the PV lobe... bad trend with the s/w out west though... too fast and gets squashed. I'll take this over the way stuff was trending overnight though.

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If we trend this way and get a more traditional overrunning setup, then you can bet on a "NW" trend as their will be more precip on the NW side than depicted and likely FGEN forcing early on. This is one way to get snow at least for a little while before a switch over to ice.
 
Ill be interested to see the 500 vort map for hour 240 from the Canadian and Euro Op again today. Both where really close to shooting off the fireworks. The GFs at 0z and 6z is vastly different ( shockingly ) for the sme time frame. The window was Friday afternoon through Monday from the Cold. Either we where gonna get a hard press from the PV or catch a HP sliding in place right on its heels. That timing has stayed the course. The SW energy coming out way earlier/faster is what's hurting this fickle set-up. Just not sure how we can get the SW energy to slow down/ reverse its trend. Maybe dig and separate more. Can't believe I'm sitting here chasing a storm and rooting for SW energy to eject latter. Its always the opposite . The times we have begged for a faster ejection trend and never got one. now the one time we need it, no dice .
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Favoring I-40-VA with this setup. We’re speeding up the shortwave which is no bueno, not a fan of rain to snow setups. We need a deeper digging cold vortex, slower S/W, and higher heights trailing the TPV
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I don’t think that area is really favored it’s very close to a cold rain for much of the bottom half of Virginia.
 
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