Another wait for the weekend to see if this looks more real eh? I can say I have a higher confidence (albeit slightly) than what we were hoping for at end of month awhile back
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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
The stream separation, as we know is good. But what we need is a distinct northern wave, running across the northern tier just ahead of the southern wave and then out east into the Atlantic, allowing HP to slide into a favorable position. What we don't need is a northern stream wave glancing the northeast tip of MN and heading rapidly toward Newfoundland. In order to avoid the latter, we need the PV pressing to the SE. The flow up there seems pretty fast. So if that's going to be the case, then we need really good timing, which has been pointed out. At least we're kind of in the game and not torching ourselves to death unendingly.
I know it's the CFS, but it does show the players on the field.
12z CFS at day 7:
12z CFS at day 7:
18z GFS at day 5. I guess the NC/VA boarder is the divide for the SE and mid-Atlantic.
GFS should give us something here the high pressure is much stronger
griteater
Member
Yeah GFS is a little better / a little farther south with the cold press TPV, but need the southern wave to be farther south and have it come out a 1/2 day later. Not far off
Most of the NC folks and a couple in VA are going to be happy with this GFS run.
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LOL. Bruh.
The GFS is always good for entertainment
The GFS is always good for entertainment
12-18 hours slower with the southern wave, and a little more amped up and most of this board would be happy campers. Especially ice storm mongers such as myself.
rburrel2
Member
If we could get the cold press of the GFS with a little better s/w like the euro/cmc we would really be cooking with grease.
Day 7 24 hr total Kuchera:
weatherfide
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GFS following suit with all other models .. the ways of getting this event are a bit different on all but EPS did look similar to what the GFS is showing .. we’re making these trends within 180 hours now .. most positive trend we’ve had this close to go time than we’ve had all year
packfan98
Moderator
I’ve noticed the shortwave trending weaker on todays models. There’s a fine line between too amped up and dampening out so much that there’s not enough juice on the tail end for the second part of the system.
Very interesting that their was very little ice with that run though, unlike what the other models are showing.
ATLwxfan
Member
Day 8 kuchera totals. More folks to the south got into the fun:
griteater
Member
18z GFS
packfan98
Moderator
Yeah, that was a timing issue. If the shortwave came through a little later, there would have been more ice. Also, we’ve seen various depictions of the high pressure to our north with respect to both position and strength. Throw in the PV position and there’s lots of moving parts.