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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

Nick_boynton_ said:
Wow the -NAO has been absolutely going insane the past couple model cycles ... truly a beauty in the beast with this one ... maybe it’s cause I haven’t seen one like that in a while ... would provide us a good shot for some blocking and some good storm tracks later ... wow this pattern holds lots of possibilities
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Honestly, I can't detect any serious -NAO on any of the modeling. Where are you seeing this?
 
West NC may still want to keep an eye on Friday/Sat this week. EPS has not given up all hope. Who has the EPS charts by city? GSO may be but the sweet spot may be west of there.
 
Gfs has off and on been pretty consistent with the 6/7th timeframe. We need support from euro to give it legs. But all and all we may get something.


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baroowoofr said:
What has happened around the RMM phase 3/4 area? The RMMs show the COD, but that looks like phase 3 - 4, with not as much convection elsewhere

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There's almost always convection over the Indo-pacific warmpool, satellite based IR doesn't tell really tell you anything. Plus, the upper level circulation signal tied to the convection hasn't been moving (it's quasi-stationary), thus it's not an MJO.

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I get it but the truth is the NAO is bouncing around between near neutral to slightly negative. There’s nothing there that is really fantastic or that would give any hint of delivering sustained cold and or offer sustained blocking. At least that’s the way I see it. I hope I’m wrong though and that we do get a really strong -NAO.
 
Poimen said:
I get it but the truth is the NAO is bouncing around between near neutral to slightly negative. There’s nothing there that is really fantastic or that would give any hint of delivering sustained cold and or offer sustained blocking. At least that’s the way I see it. I hope I’m wrong though and that we do get a really strong -NAO.
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Understandable but we haven’t seen any -NAO all year and especially not at a favorable time .. we will have it set up during a time where we can actually pull off a big time storm like the Gfs was showing .. all we need is one
 
It's a very east-based NAO/north Atlantic ridge. And it faded in both strength and duration on the 6z GFS. Instead of displacing the PV toward the south, it at least keeps it in north central/eastern Canada for a time. So not beautiful or outstanding but not horrific either. This configuration is nowhere close to ideal for the SE, but it's much better than having a kiss of death ridge off the SE coast. It will provide a fleeting opportunity for upper portions of the SE to score with temps that are very close, if it comes to pass as predicted.
 
DopplerWx said:
a 41 degree rainstorm to bring in fab feb, nice!
View attachment 32388
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Another good track and no cold. lol I don't think this one will trend toward a wintry event. Maybe the high mountains are in play but the rest of us need a significant trend colder. And the cold source is extremely anemic. Maybe some NW flow on the backside can produce, but again just for favored mountains.

This does not scream winter event for anyone outside of New England. And we would need a substantial trend inside 90hrs to get to wintry precip.
namconus_T2m_us_53.png

This is what.. miss number 6+ now this winter?
 
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