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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

Remember all of those cold Feb CFS runs? Now they have this, keeping in mind the AAM being progged to drop. Besides a -PNA, my new least favorite tele is a -AAM. Regardless, I still think there's good hope for late Feb into mid Mar. based on analogs and the hope that the MJO is then going to be more favorable.

Is everyone prepared for what the Bleakiles might show?

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Snowless & Grumpy said:
As I've said there is just no signs of cold anywhere. That's average to slightly above which wont cut it. Which is why I believe the fantasy storms just ain't happening and anyone who thinks otherwise has a lot of disappointment coming.
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I wouldn't say these fantasy storms aren't going to happen. They're in fantasy land, they could happen, they may not...50/50. These fantasy storms is all we have to track for now.

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WxWatch said:
I wouldn't say these fantasy storms aren't going to happen. They're in fantasy land, they could happen, they may not...50/50. These fantasy storms is all we have to track for now.

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Talking about fantasy, look at the CFS starting at day 10 (storm after storm). Too bad we can't get one genie wish to lock down one model run.
www.pivotalweather.com

Models: CFS - Pivotal Weather

View CFS weather model forecast map image for Precipitation Type, Rate in Continental US on pivotalweather.com.
www.pivotalweather.com www.pivotalweather.com

EDIT: I know this is banter, but that was one of the greatest fantasy runs of a model I've seen in a long time. For two weeks after day 10 most on this board would keep snow on the ground as storm after storm dumps snow and ice. Wouldn't it be great to see something like this someday.
 
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Storm5 said:
I’d take that look verbatim 100 percent . But it’s day 8/9 but the models and ensembles have sucked getting the 3-5 day period right so it’s pointless to even consider something so far out


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Exactly, the models have been somewhat terrible with somethings so far this winter. It's really hard to believe anything, wonder what's throwing the models off so much?

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accu35 said:
Why would there be no cold air anywhere. According to the models the next 2 weeks are full of potential. I can care less about blocking and slightly above average temps, plus we don't need a below average to score. Gfs/Euro tells me that our potential is coming. Let's stay positive and maybe just maybe we can score.
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I don't know. Maybe someone with way more knowledge than me can answer better but I'll try. We don't live at 500mb. Just like above average heights at 500mb doesn't always equal torch, below heights doesn't always equal cold. We've had a real problem getting cold in the south the last 2 years and my opinion is the STJ is to blame. I just personally think the models are over doing the cold push at the surface in the long range. You end up with a perfect track like this weekend because 500mb is favorable but no cold air. Also the PV is yet to be disrupted which is probably some of it too. But this is just my opinion and I hope I'm wrong.
 
GaWx said:
Remember all of those cold Feb CFS runs? Now they have this, keeping in mind the AAM being progged to drop. Besides a -PNA, my new least favorite tele is a -AAM. Regardless, I still think there's good hope for late Feb into mid Mar. based on analogs and the hope that the MJO is then going to be more favorable.

Is everyone prepared for what the Bleakiles might show?

View attachment 32314
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I enjoy seeing way above temps on west coast, compared to our average temps on east coast. We can definitely work with this you guys.
 
accu35 said:
Why would there be no cold air anywhere. According to the models the next 2 weeks are full of potential. I can care less about blocking and slightly above average temps, plus we don't need a below average to score. Gfs/Euro tells me that our potential is coming. Let's stay positive and maybe just maybe we can score.
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Agreed 100%
 
WxWatch said:
I wouldn't say these fantasy storms aren't going to happen. They're in fantasy land, they could happen, they may not...50/50. These fantasy storms is all we have to track for now.

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The good looking 500mb looks showing up doesn't appear to be translating to the surface. We need to get the PV disrupted in my opinion. But it's not a torch and it's close. It's just going to take more luck than usual in my opinion.
 
GaWx said:
Remember all of those cold Feb CFS runs? Now they have this, keeping in mind the AAM being progged to drop. Besides a -PNA, my new least favorite tele is a -AAM. Regardless, I still think there's good hope for late Feb into mid Mar. based on analogs and the hope that the MJO is then going to be more favorable.

Is everyone prepared for what the Bleakiles might show?

View attachment 32314
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Word on the street- Bleaklies have warmed significantly weeks 2/3 wut a surprise! I hope folks really wasn't falling for the Euro COLD head fake again.....
 
It can’t snow at 50° as much as we may want to believe the models. The Pacific keeps jamming up the models and they have to correct.


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Honestly slightly below-average to average is it a bad luck for all of February. We haven't seen that in a while
 
lol these H5 changes.

12z be 18z
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GFS almost looks like it tries to send the polar vortex down to parts of the Northern US during that cold snap I'm watching for...now that's how you suppress something...this time the fantasy stuff was snow on the deep south coasts, even getting into Florida (but not to Phil I *think*).
 
If we can keep the S/W alive the next 2 weeks then someone gonna score big
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
GFS almost looks like it tries to send the polar vortex down to parts of the Northern US during that cold snap I'm watching for...now that's how you suppress something...this time the fantasy stuff was snow on the deep south coasts, even getting into Florida (but not to Phil I *think*).
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Well, I wouldn't call it "fantasy stuff" when it's just little over 200 hours.
 
Either the GFS is consistently ---- right now or its going to be starting around day 9. Either way, I'm all in on the CFS
 
accu35 said:
Well, I wouldn't call it "fantasy stuff" when it's just little over 200 hours.
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I actually would call what I'm talking about as fantasy, as it's not all the cold snap although that's my focus.

although the events to trigger the potential cold do start a lot earlier. Looks like you do start out with blue anomalies in Alaska, but something triggers it to dislodge and it starts heading southeast in 120 hours...crud that might not be in range to where we know, but if you can get that to head east that could be $.

And I did see the GFS nail that CAD relief event in September last year....maybe...just maybe...
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
GFS almost looks like it tries to send the polar vortex down to parts of the Northern US during that cold snap I'm watching for...now that's how you suppress something...this time the fantasy stuff was snow on the deep south coasts, even getting into Florida (but not to Phil I *think*).
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Seldom does, and likely won't this time (540 way too north) ... but it's a fun movie to watch and I hope some of our members are in the cast of characters! ... :cool:
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
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Look at the ridging at the pole..GFS must have that vortex splitting #BelieveItWhenISeeIt
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With a look like this I think those comments earlier today are very premature to be making .. winter is in no way shape or form done.. obviously this may not verify but a pattern like this could easily verify and have multiple storm opportunities.. no need to be down about this pattern.. honestly I thought this would be exciting people on here .. don’t know where the negativity is coming from
 
I sound like a broken record but the Gfs has no clue. Gfs shows something different every run. I mean if we are going to see snow this winter. It will probably be February 5th to 9th timeframe. That seems to be the idea we are getting. That the pattern will be a pattern that could pop a storm. 30% chance we get a storm. But hey the chances are not zero.


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Nick_boynton_ said:
With a look like this I think those comments earlier today are very premature to be making .. winter is in no way shape or form done.. obviously this may not verify but a pattern like this could easily verify and have multiple storm opportunities.. no need to be down about this pattern.. honestly I thought this would be exciting people on here .. don’t know where the negativity is coming from
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18z GFS...PV pinwheel to 60 degree cutters. I trust it
 
FallsLake said:
Talking about fantasy, look at the CFS starting at day 10 (storm after storm). Too bad we can't get one genie wish to lock down one model run.
www.pivotalweather.com

Models: CFS - Pivotal Weather

View CFS weather model forecast map image for Precipitation Type, Rate in Continental US on pivotalweather.com.
www.pivotalweather.com www.pivotalweather.com

EDIT: I know this is banter, but that was one of the greatest fantasy runs of a model I've seen in a long time. For two weeks after day 10 most on this board would keep snow on the ground as storm after storm dumps snow and ice. Wouldn't it be great to see something like this someday.
Click to expand...

A parade of storms for the first three weeks of February. A Fab Feb, indeed! modernweenie
 
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