Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

[WxWatch]

12z GEFS from today, it's showing a PV split by next Tuesday/Wednesday. Some ridging in the NAO region, some higher heights toward AK, -EPO? This is awesome, and it's not too far out, we're talking about next week!

 

[whatalife]

Seems like GEFS will spit out a run this like every other week so grain of salt.

View attachment 32134

Several big hits skewing that mean that Kylo posted. An active run nevertheless.

Here is the snow mean w/no ice.

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[Logan Is An Idiot 01]

If we get a winter storm we better enjoy it.

 

[Broken024]

If we get a winter storm we better enjoy it.

There is a 1047 high coming down right after that 24 hour heat wave in 384 hours

 

[tennessee storm]

If we get a winter storm we better enjoy it.

Yep artic air start retrieving back north...

 

[BirdManDoomW]

It’s -30 in the Midwest. No it’s not spring. A day or two above normal sure.

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

When the threats start showing up I look to see if the teles support this. The MJO moving from the circle to phase 2 and 3 as was posted earlier is a good look. The AO looks to stay positive in that timeframe (not good) and the PNA is positive (good) heading into Feb. Hopefully that can hold and the few members taking it negative hopefully wont verify. I really don't see overwhelming support for cold or warmth honestly.

 

[Deleted member 1449]

Forget what I said about waiting on the Doc. It seems unconvinced:

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Hopefully that Euro was a big ole' blip run. It decided to dump a big ULL in the west and pump an eastern ridge. If that big ULL is untrue, you can see the western ridge west of it.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 01]

Hopefully that Euro was a big ole' blip run. It decided to dump a big ULL in the west and pump an eastern ridge. If that big ULL is untrue, you can see the western ridge west of it.

Oh nelly

 

[Broken024]

Oh nelly

Mack? That you?

 

[deltadog03]

Hell I wouldn’t worry about a D10 look for now. Yes trends are important but the models are flopping around even in the D3-7 range. I don’t think I have seen so many different looks for a system at D3-7 then now. Euro is no different.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Euro firing warning shots for January pattern repeat. Looks similar to last nights run which was not good. But like @GeorgiaGirl said it could be out to lunch since it’s all contingent on dumping that ULL into the SW

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Euro firing warning shots for January pattern repeat. Looks similar to last nights run which was not good. But like @GeorgiaGirl said it could be out to lunch since it’s all contingent on dumping that ULL into the SW

It’s all being pushed southward it’s transient with no staying power that ridge west of it moving east steadily and will slide that all down our way which is where I see our next storm threat

 

[GaWx]

Holy -EPO!!!!!!!!!!!! Great for the upper Midwest/Plains (that's what -EPOs do), but would some of that make it down to the SE later or will it largely be resisted by a SER like sometimes happens? For most of the US, this was a significantly colder run vs the 0Z. But for the SE, it was closer to a wash with slightly colder 1-5, a bit warmer 6-10, and slightly colder 11-15. Fwiw, I still think 2/20-3/20 for a targeted 2-3 week cold dominated period.

 

[Jon]

If we get a winter storm we better enjoy it.

This belongs in the whammy thread.

384 hour 2m temps are a joke. Quit trolling. This is for pattern discussion.


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[baroowoofr]

I think part of the model mayhem has to do with how they're handling the strat in the long range, how they deal with the ridging that sandwiches the SPV. Because everything is so coupled, when you have the -EPO and NAO ridging, it might be more able affect the strat and vice versa? You can see it here as the yellows and oranges that correlate to the NAO and EPO regions in the arctic:

12z Euro OP strat

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 01]

This belongs in the whammy thread.

384 hour 2m temps are a joke. Quit trolling. This is for pattern discussion.


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Looks like a warm pattern to me

 

[SD]

Looks like a warm pattern to me

Its 10 days away, this is what the euro had for Thursday when it was D10 now we are talking about an outside shot at snow. Its fine to say it looks warm 1 time but time after time after time is a little much. Add to it the pattern is highly chaotic and we are looking at some type of osten shift on horizon for better or worse and you still get these ugly runs.

 

[SD]

I think part of the model mayhem has to do with how they're handling the strat in the long range, how they deal with the ridging that sandwiches the SPV. Because everything is so coupled, when you have the -EPO and NAO ridging, it might be more able affect the strat and vice versa? You can see it here as the yellows and oranges that correlate to the NAO and EPO regions in the arctic:

12z Euro OP strat

That's a fairly ugly end of the run. All things being equal with the eamt event coming up along with the strat finally getting squeezed and possibly some Atlantic wave breaks who knows where we finally land.