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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

GFS at the very least has been hugging the idea of a cold wave setting in in about 9 days now, if that's true then perhaps we have a shot at something.

#itwasrightaboutaCADsituationinSeptemberlastyear
 
Gfs looks to be issuing warning shots on three potentials .. 1st comes some sort of Anafrontal type system(gotta love them), 2nd seems to be a storm riding on the heels of the frontal system .. then the 3rd seems to be another piece of energy pinwheeling behind that ... ample opportunities in medium to long range .. I’ll take it
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Incoming again at the end of the run..4 southern snows that run..I mean, we cant go 0 for 4 right?
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Would love to see what the Euro says in a few days about the coming timeperiod...although it maybe wasn't as good as the GFS runs have been, it kinda didn't look drastically different, did suggest it might try with a front for starters.

Maybe in a few days we will be able to start tracking the February 5th-10th period.
 
The 12z UKMET is really close to being a decent thumping of snow for the I-85 corridor.

Mid 30s with just a very shallow layer of warm air near the surface, and near 0C 925mb temps.

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This is taken near Charlotte on Friday night. Borderline wet snow sounding here w/ a near isothermal layer from 850mb to the surface, without any deep layer warm advection, heavier rates would result in some snow if there's sufficient lift in the DGZ. DGZ is somewhat dry however due to CAA and deep layer descent beginning to occur on the backside of the low, but that can certainly change between now & then. A slightly slower and deeper coastal low would certainly increase the potential for +SN near & west of I-85.

1580145824649.png
 
Friendly reminder; we may be entering a more favorable Winter weather setup in the "not too far future", please direct all "in my back yard posts" like "what bout here", "what does it show for locationhere" into the banter threads. It's impossible to give a personalized forecast to each individual person, so wait for the maps, or responses for your question(in the banter thread) so we will have a smooth flow of modeling/run information.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The 12z UKMET is really close to being a decent thumping of snow for the I-85 corridor.

Mid 30s with just a very shallow layer of warm air near the surface, and near 0C 925mb temps.

View attachment 32299


View attachment 32295


This is taken near Charlotte on Friday night. Borderline wet snow sounding here w/ a near isothermal layer from 850mb to the surface, without any deep layer warm advection, heavier rates would result in some snow if there's sufficient lift in the DGZ. DGZ is somewhat dry however due to CAA and deep layer descent beginning to occur on the backside of the low, but that can certainly change between now & then. A slightly slower and deeper coastal low would certainly increase the potential for +SN near & west of I-85.

View attachment 32296
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Given how this winter has played out thus far, I'm legitimately curious how we're gonna screw it up this time because I'm sure we'll find a way.
 
GEFS doesn't really support what the GFS shows storm wise but this looks solid:

1580146286875.png

Even if you want to call cold bias too. Workable, wish this was at day 10 and not beyond, hopefully we get it there.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Given how this winter has played out thus far, I'm legitimately curious how we're gonna screw it up this time because I'm sure we'll find a way.
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The weekend system has tons of potential. Multiple pieces of energy moving in tandem always can be an interesting event if you get it to all line up. We would likely be talking about a Western NC setup as cold is marginal but its on the table for sure. Not to mention we could have some legit NW flow if we get this sucker to really wrap up.

We are crazy to expect models to nail this down even 80 hrs out. let alone 5-6 days.gfs_z500_vort_us_20.png
 
Fountainguy97 said:
The weekend system has tons of potential. Multiple pieces of energy moving in tandem always can be an interesting event if you get it to all line up. We would likely be talking about a Western NC setup as cold is marginal but its on the table for sure. Not to mention we could have some legit NW flow if we get this sucker to really wrap up.

We are crazy to expect models to nail this down even 80 hrs out. let alone 5-6 days.View attachment 32304
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I’m watching this one carefully. Have my eye on a place in Maggie Valley that is 3750 feet in elevation and EPS and GEFS have some crazy members showing something really good.
 
This Euro run kicks our s/w out of the SW US & northern Mexico a bit faster than the previous cycles, should result in better phasing and possibly a bigger storm downstream
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
GEFS doesn't really support what the GFS shows storm wise but this looks solid:

View attachment 32300

Even if you want to call cold bias too. Workable, wish this was at day 10 and not beyond, hopefully we get it there.
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Day 8 is totally workable
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Webberweather53 said:
This Euro run kicks our s/w out of the SW US & northern Mexico a bit faster than the previous cycles, should result in better phasing and possibly a bigger storm downstream
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Later in the run, the primary wave starts to hang back more than previous cycles, resulting in less phasing & a weak/strung out mess near the SE US coast.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The 12z UKMET is really close to being a decent thumping of snow for the I-85 corridor.

Mid 30s with just a very shallow layer of warm air near the surface, and near 0C 925mb temps.

View attachment 32299


View attachment 32295


This is taken near Charlotte on Friday night. Borderline wet snow sounding here w/ a near isothermal layer from 850mb to the surface, without any deep layer warm advection, heavier rates would result in some snow if there's sufficient lift in the DGZ. DGZ is somewhat dry however due to CAA and deep layer descent beginning to occur on the backside of the low, but that can certainly change between now & then. A slightly slower and deeper coastal low would certainly increase the potential for +SN near & west of I-85.

View attachment 32296
Click to expand...
Doesnt the Ukie have a warm bias at ground level? I could be wrong tho
TIA
 
I mean I have only a few chips in hand but I’m all in on that overrunning muck fest. I will buy what the GFS is selling.


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ATLwxfan said:
I mean I have only a few chips in hand but I’m all in on that overrunning muck fest. I will buy what the GFS is selling.


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Those overrunning solutions (cold chasing precip) hardly ever work out, especially for us folks east of the mountains. So I'm not excited about the first event. I think the second event could do it, but that's 11 days out. We just need to get something within 7 days.
 
KyloG said:
Uggh...avg high temp goes up about 3-4F over the next 2 weeks. I don't even want to think about it as we approach end
of Feb. #wastedwinter :(

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As I've said there is just no signs of cold anywhere. That's average to slightly above which wont cut it. Which is why I believe the fantasy storms just ain't happening and anyone who thinks otherwise has a lot of disappointment coming.
 
KyloG said:
Uggh...avg high temp goes up about 3-4F over the next 2 weeks. I don't even want to think about it as we approach end
of Feb. #wastedwinter :(

View attachment 32310
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Yeah I'm just about ready to throw in the towel.... it's not pretty that's for sure.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
As I've said there is just no signs of cold anywhere. That's average to slightly above which wont cut it. Which is why I believe the fantasy storms just ain't happening and anyone who thinks otherwise has a lot of disappointment coming.
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We can score without below normal cold.

BUT the clock is ticking. Each week we toss is now a large percentage (17-20%) of the remaining winter.
 
Storm5 said:
A few inches of modeled snow with temps crashing into the mid twenties inside day ten

What could possibly go wrong
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Dry air, drying up the moisture smh... it better get juiced up for that overrunning!

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Snowless & Grumpy said:
As I've said there is just no signs of cold anywhere. That's average to slightly above which wont cut it. Which is why I believe the fantasy storms just ain't happening and anyone who thinks otherwise has a lot of disappointment coming.
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Why would there be no cold air anywhere. According to the models the next 2 weeks are full of potential. I can care less about blocking and slightly above average temps, plus we don't need a below average to score. Gfs/Euro tells me that our potential is coming. Let's stay positive and maybe just maybe we can score.
 
WxWatch said:
Dry air, drying up the moisture smh... it better get juiced up for that overrunning!

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I’d take that look verbatim 100 percent . But it’s day 8/9 but the models and ensembles have sucked getting the 3-5 day period right so it’s pointless to even consider something so far out


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WxWatch said:
Dry air, drying up the moisture smh... it better get juiced up for that overrunning!

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This is good this far out. Don't go into details this far out
 
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