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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

KyloG said:
Seems like GEFS will spit out a run this like every other week so grain of salt.

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packfan98 said:
Several big hits skewing that mean that Kylo posted. An active run nevertheless.
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Here is the snow mean w/no ice.
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When the threats start showing up I look to see if the teles support this. The MJO moving from the circle to phase 2 and 3 as was posted earlier is a good look. The AO looks to stay positive in that timeframe (not good) and the PNA is positive (good) heading into Feb. Hopefully that can hold and the few members taking it negative hopefully wont verify. I really don't see overwhelming support for cold or warmth honestly.Screenshot_20200126-133012_Chrome.jpgScreenshot_20200126-132938_Chrome.jpg
 
Hopefully that Euro was a big ole' blip run. It decided to dump a big ULL in the west and pump an eastern ridge. If that big ULL is untrue, you can see the western ridge west of it.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Hopefully that Euro was a big ole' blip run. It decided to dump a big ULL in the west and pump an eastern ridge. If that big ULL is untrue, you can see the western ridge west of it.
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Oh nelly
 

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Hell I wouldn’t worry about a D10 look for now. Yes trends are important but the models are flopping around even in the D3-7 range. I don’t think I have seen so many different looks for a system at D3-7 then now. Euro is no different.
 
Euro firing warning shots for January pattern repeat. Looks similar to last nights run which was not good. But like @GeorgiaGirl said it could be out to lunch since it’s all contingent on dumping that ULL into the SW
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Euro firing warning shots for January pattern repeat. Looks similar to last nights run which was not good. But like @GeorgiaGirl said it could be out to lunch since it’s all contingent on dumping that ULL into the SW
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It’s all being pushed southward it’s transient with no staying power that ridge west of it moving east steadily and will slide that all down our way which is where I see our next storm threat
 
Holy -EPO!!!!!!!!!!!! Great for the upper Midwest/Plains (that's what -EPOs do), but would some of that make it down to the SE later or will it largely be resisted by a SER like sometimes happens? For most of the US, this was a significantly colder run vs the 0Z. But for the SE, it was closer to a wash with slightly colder 1-5, a bit warmer 6-10, and slightly colder 11-15. Fwiw, I still think 2/20-3/20 for a targeted 2-3 week cold dominated period.

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I think part of the model mayhem has to do with how they're handling the strat in the long range, how they deal with the ridging that sandwiches the SPV. Because everything is so coupled, when you have the -EPO and NAO ridging, it might be more able affect the strat and vice versa? You can see it here as the yellows and oranges that correlate to the NAO and EPO regions in the arctic:

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12z Euro OP strat
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LoganElliott40 said:
Looks like a warm pattern to me
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Its 10 days away, this is what the euro had for Thursday when it was D10 now we are talking about an outside shot at snow. Its fine to say it looks warm 1 time but time after time after time is a little much. Add to it the pattern is highly chaotic and we are looking at some type of osten shift on horizon for better or worse and you still get these ugly runs.
 

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baroowoofr said:
I think part of the model mayhem has to do with how they're handling the strat in the long range, how they deal with the ridging that sandwiches the SPV. Because everything is so coupled, when you have the -EPO and NAO ridging, it might be more able affect the strat and vice versa? You can see it here as the yellows and oranges that correlate to the NAO and EPO regions in the arctic:

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12z Euro OP strat
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That's a fairly ugly end of the run. All things being equal with the eamt event coming up along with the strat finally getting squeezed and possibly some Atlantic wave breaks who knows where we finally land.
 
LoganElliott40 said:
Looks like a warm pattern to me
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From your recent posts, you appear to be a troll. You need to give some real analysis that adds to the weather discussion. This is your only warning. Further attempts to purposely post something controversial in order to get a rise out of other users will result in a permanent ban.
 
I know the folks on the warm train will show the day 15 pattern and hug it but when the day 15 pattern shows cold they say the models have been garbage in the extended.

Well this is solid entering Feb. Will see how this evolves once we get into Feb.

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KyloG said:
I know the folks on the warm train will show the day 15 pattern and hug it but when the day 15 pattern shows cold they say the models have been garbage in the extended.

Well this is solid entering Feb. Will see how this evolves once we get into Feb.

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I don't know who you're referring to, but don't you think that an overall cold bias of all models the last few weeks+ is a good reason for these folks to think that a warm run has a better chance to verify more closely than a cold run? If not, why not?

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me a bunch of times, I'll never learn.

Regardless, I still think a BN dominated period (2-3 weeks) will finally reach the SE 2/20 or later. In the meantime, no extended torch is in sight, regardless. We'll be much better off the next few weeks than we were most of Dec-1/18 imo. The MJO forecasts are one of the reasons for this plus the other tellies are not nearly as bad as they were recently. The EPS HDDs nationally have been trending higher. So, the US as a whole is trending colder.
 
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KyloG said:
I know the folks on the warm train will show the day 15 pattern and hug it but when the day 15 pattern shows cold they say the models have been garbage in the extended.

Well this is solid entering Feb. Will see how this evolves once we get into Feb.

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I'm not honestly worried about a day 15 -EPO ruining our pattern. That feature has been a long range phantom all year. We may fail long range but that most likely wont be why.
 
GaWx said:
I don't know who you're referring to, but don't you think that an overall cold bias of all models the last few weeks+ is a good reason for these folks to think that a warm run has a better chance to verify more closely than a cold run? If not, why not?

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me a bunch of times, I'll never learn.

Regardless, I still think a BN dominated period (2-3 weeks) will finally reach the SE 2/20 or later. In the meantime, no extended torch is in sight, regardless. We'll be much better off the next few weeks than we were most of Dec-1/18 imo. The MJO forecasts are one of the reasons for this plus the other tellies are not nearly as bad as they were recently. The EPS HDDs nationally have ben trending higher. So, the US as a whole is trending colder.
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What do you mean by fooled? The models indicated a BN period after the 20th and we got that.

Yeah, the GEFS busted on the EPO forecast but EPS never bit.

Has it gone as planned...probably not but it hasn’t been as torched as some preach.

I get it, your biased warm, and maybe I’m biased cold. I appreciate everyone’s opinions.

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I'm still thinking that a phase could be possible for the 1st/2nd system. Today's 12z GFS OP looks (somewhat) similar to the Euro run from Friday's run, 0z, even up at 500mb (vort) The surface low is just faster and moves out before a phase could be initiated from today's 12z GFS OP. A quick tracking S/W is good, but if it moves too quick, that can also be bad. If a phase doesn't occur, there wouldn't be significant wrap around snow with this system for the Southeastern US. Another solution we could see is that, the northern stream trough could come down on the back side of the surface low, which would be a separate system. Either way, snowfall isn't out of the question for some parts of the Southeastern US during the 1st/2nd time window and possibly the 3rd. Timing will change as this is still beyond 5 days, there will be continuation of different solutions. Personally, I'm pulling for a phase!

12z GFS OP
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0z Euro from Friday (01/24/20)

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You've got some factors coming together as we roll into feb that will at least make things interesting. Like I said Friday the concern becomes evolving into the aleutian ridge west coast trough se ridge look but maybe we can play around with the pv enough we can actually get some high latitude blocking
 
GaWx said:
I don't know who you're referring to, but don't you think that an overall cold bias of all models the last few weeks+ is a good reason for these folks to think that a warm run has a better chance to verify more closely than a cold run? If not, why not?

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me a bunch of times, I'll never learn.

Regardless, I still think a BN dominated period (2-3 weeks) will finally reach the SE 2/20 or later. In the meantime, no extended torch is in sight, regardless. We'll be much better off the next few weeks than we were most of Dec-1/18 imo. The MJO forecasts are one of the reasons for this plus the other tellies are not nearly as bad as they were recently. The EPS HDDs nationally have been trending higher. So, the US as a whole is trending colder.
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The pattern flipped Jan18th. We are -1.3 BN @ GSO since then and look to stay neutral to slightly BN as we roll into Feb across the finish line March1. Winter was atrocious till jan18. But we have a different base state now.
 
KyloG said:
What do you mean by fooled? The models indicated a BN period after the 20th and we got that.

Yeah, the GEFS busted on the EPO forecast but EPS never bit.

Has it gone as planned...probably not but it hasn’t been as torched as some preach.

I get it, your biased warm, and maybe I’m biased cold. I appreciate everyone’s opinions.

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I don't mean after the 20th. Indeed, it got cold 1/19+ as the models advertised. And the next 5 days look near normal, which has also been well predicted. So no cold bias there, either. Maybe even a slight warm bias for the SE for 1/19-31. But that's also cherry picking when the models haven't been too cold, which has obviously been rare this winter. Keep in mind that there has been a strong +AAM recently, which tends to be negatively correlated with a SER. Maybe that's what's needed for the models to not be cold biased in the SE?? But also keep in mind that the +AAM is forecasted to decline in the 6-15 day period. So, folks should imo be wary about the possible return of a stubborn SER in early Feb. Hopefully it won't happen, but even so, I can't see it being nearly as bad as it was 12/1-1/18 due mainly to better tellies than before.

Keeping this all in mind, do you have enough confidence to assume the cold bias is no longer relevant just because late January will turn out to have been not cold biased or maybe even slightly warm biased for a change?

Just because I recognize the cold bias of models and am not afraid to emphasize that (which has served me well time and time again) doesn't mean I'm warm biased. I always aim to be neutral even though I'd strongly prefer cold. If that make me seem warm biased to some, I can't help that.
 
Could someone please describe to me how a mow can go north then back to the south?
 

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Gfs has no clue different outcome every run. But storm signal still very much there just don’t know what kind of storm it will be
 
LoganElliott40 said:
Could someone please describe to me how a mow can go north then back to the south?
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Is this a serious question or another troll post? I think I know the answer and @packfan98 has already issued a very friendly warning
 
LoganElliott40 said:
Yes I'm trying to learn.
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Ok, so look at the 1002 isobar line and how elongated it is. To me it is ripples of low pressure withing a broader area. So, it didn't move SW, it developed a new center there. But that's if you believe the GFS:) We would be better off with a more tightly wrapped up low.
 
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