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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

GEFS MJO

If this is right we could see a stout aleutian low get going mid-Feb. Per Webber's MJO/snowfall table he posted, phases 3/4 in Feb are really good.

ensplume_full.gifFebENMJOphase3gt1500mb.gif
 
Here's the EPS. I seem to recall the EPS not wanting to take into 7...then it wanted to take back in 5. The GEFS seems to have done better with MJO...atleast past few weeks.

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif
 
Jon said:
Looks like there’s going to be snow on the gulf with this look. Wish I could believe it lol


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No doubt. Heavy wet snow sounding here. Lol
 
packfan98 said:
Huge SE storm brewing at 276. Plenty of cold air around. Deep South is in play.
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It becomes a ULL and LA gets absolutely pasted with snow, then others get in on some action.

If we actually manage to get the look that I saw at H5, it's not a bad one either. Looks like a nice +PNA/western ridge again here. Only several days to go here! (but I do have some mild interest in early February already, maybe not warranted but still)
 
Stormdoc said:
Lol shows New Orleans getting hammered then starts as rain at RDU
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It gets better
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Seems to me that the GFS keeps coming back to a threat around Feb 7-10. It loses it then brings it back etc. The members (more or less) show at least some support for that time period as well.

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Looks like the gfs, cmc, and euro all have cold incoming around day 10. Hopefully its right.
 
GFS 12z is a winner for south Louisiana. That run gives MBY up to a foot of snow. That would be a record for us. Too bad its past 180 hours out.

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I find this hard to believe with a low that strong in the northern Gulf I expect to see more moisture spread out further north and deeper than what this is showing... Thank God this have time to correct itselfgfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh270-306.gif
 
Truth be told it’s the Gfs look for it to be gone this evening. Maybe even be a cutter and perhaps come back in a few days. But all and all that feb 5-10th timeframe may be winters only hope of a storm.
 
Ilovesnow28 said:
I find this hard to believe with a low that strong in the northern Gulf I expect to see more moisture spread out further north and deeper than what this is showing... Thank God this have time to correct itselfView attachment 32131
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Turns itself into a cutoff low/ULL for at least a stretch, those kinds of systems don't have as much moisture return spread out (and people that do get the moisture can get absolutely destroyed) and have caused me pain in the past...but why sweat something that's nearly 300 hours out, general idea is I really do think some point in February could be very interesting.
 
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most you know this, but there's no point in sweating the details on a day +11 prog. The good news, is, as @GaWx pointed out earlier this morning, there's reason to be hopeful for a cold period in February. The 12Z suit--so far anyway--is reinforcing this idea. On to the good doctor.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Turns itself into a cutoff low/ULL for at least a stretch, those kinds of systems don't have as much moisture return spread out and have caused me pain in the past...but why sweat something that's nearly 300 hours out, general idea is I really do think some point in February could be very interesting.
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Yea true! Interesting times ahead but with this we know it will change in the upcoming days... So I wouldn't really be bitting on this storm until it's inside 3 days
 
Jessy89 said:
Truth be told it’s the Gfs look for it to be gone this evening. Maybe even be a cutter and perhaps come back in a few days. But all and all that feb 5-10th timeframe may be winters only hope of a storm.
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You hit on it. We will get a different look but this is the ideal low placement for a board wide event. We saw this once before in December I think but the Pacific screwed everything up. If I had to guess, Euro will be 10° warmer and a cut off rain festival.


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Ilovesnow28 said:
It's very possible that it will I mean at some point these models have to be consistent showing something for the better and I believe February will be a very interesting month for the southeast as a whole and it will be a dark horse for the good and bad
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Also even though I've been cliff diving all winter long I'm very confident that February may surprise us with something and starting the thread gave me confidence but we will see
 
Very active stormy pattern. Notable snow hole over Tennessee while states on all sides score including the Gulf of Mexico areas.
 
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