Jessy89
Member
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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age
- Thread starter Ilovesnow28
- Start date
I'll take the EPS. And again just because there is blue over the se doesn't mean it's a great pattern for snow. The PV looks strong still with a raging +AO. NAO is neutral at best. Ridging is kind of flat on the west coast and weak. This is not a debbie downer post. Its simply what the model shows. If I'm wrong please feel free to tell me why.
I am glad that -EPO that dumped the trough in the west disappeared.
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I wonder which one I'll pick.
One thing I'll point out is that the 2 meter anomalies of the EPS don't average BN unlike the BN 500 mb anomalies of the EPS.
I wonder which one I'll pick.
One thing I'll point out is that the 2 meter anomalies of the EPS don't average BN unlike the BN 500 mb anomalies of the EPS.
You can see why looking at the surface pressures. But yeah, it sucks, I think we all know who will win.
ATLwxfan
Member
EPS all the way. It has been consistently ahead of the others at pumping the break on the cold. At least it’s not AN
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ATLwxfan
Member
TWC and Accu doubling down on warm solutions...50’s and 60’s indefinitely
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Don’t look now but the nam increased precip and is showing snow for a good bit of nc
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Deleted member 1449
Guest
It’s February absent any true arctic air.
ATLwxfan
Member
This may be one of those cases where we just don’t know the final verdict until the precip, if any, is falling from the sky.
Take the EPS with a chunk of salt in the 12-15 day range. Definitely more if a consensus on cold, and probably major cold, but otherwise it's all over the place with just about every solution possible. So the members are probably 25-30% cold with 70-75% everything else.
GFS juuuust missed something special around the 6th/7th..We can’t afford to miss on this one..this is it 
Wow the -NAO has been absolutely going insane the past couple model cycles ... truly a beauty in the beast with this one ... maybe it’s cause I haven’t seen one like that in a while ... would provide us a good shot for some blocking and some good storm tracks later ... wow this pattern holds lots of possibilities
GeorgiaGirl
Member
In the old days this thing would quite possibly be right where we want it. These days, idk anymore. Could just not come back, or it could trend wildly north (this factor will depend on how much we get the polar vortex).
Wish the Euro didn't run so late as I'd have some interest in what it's showing in this time period.
damn that was a close call 
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NC mountains take a major hit for this weekend’s snow chances..
18z
00z
18z
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I imagine they were prepared for it! ?
Ukie delivered the goods though ??
One thing is certain, cold isn't quite over I don't think, may be transient, sans blocking, but I think Feb scores a teen low for Chattanooga, somewhere down the line. 
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Deleted member 1449
Guest
Honestly, I can't detect any serious -NAO on any of the modeling. Where are you seeing this?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Oh boy... only 10 days out, let's see how long it takes for us to screw this one up.
4 hours
Snowflowxxl
Member
That look on the 6/7 looks real nice. I say this fully knowing it won’t be showing that by lunch time today.
Nomanslandva
Member
West NC may still want to keep an eye on Friday/Sat this week. EPS has not given up all hope. Who has the EPS charts by city? GSO may be but the sweet spot may be west of there.
Jessy89
Member
Gfs has off and on been pretty consistent with the 6/7th timeframe. We need support from euro to give it legs. But all and all we may get something.
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baroowoofr
Member
What has happened around the RMM phase 3/4 area? The RMMs show the COD, but that looks like phase 3 - 4, with not as much convection elsewhere
Downeastnc
Member
Really those of us in the east need the low track 100 miles further east and on a more ENE heading otherwise mixing will be a big issue....
BHS1975
Member
Overnight eps runs for both Asheville and Boone are still encouraging for the weekend, but it could be boom or
Bust. It’s crazy the differences between little or potentially half a foot. I’m def a little nervous, but fun to watch unfold
Bust. It’s crazy the differences between little or potentially half a foot. I’m def a little nervous, but fun to watch unfold
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
There's almost always convection over the Indo-pacific warmpool, satellite based IR doesn't tell really tell you anything. Plus, the upper level circulation signal tied to the convection hasn't been moving (it's quasi-stationary), thus it's not an MJO.
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NCSNOW
Member
By Saturday per GFS
FWIW: JB was on board this morning for a Snowstorm this weekend from Western Carolinas to the NE!
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Deleted member 1449
Guest
I get it but the truth is the NAO is bouncing around between near neutral to slightly negative. There’s nothing there that is really fantastic or that would give any hint of delivering sustained cold and or offer sustained blocking. At least that’s the way I see it. I hope I’m wrong though and that we do get a really strong -NAO.
NCSNOW
Member
Your only about a 15 to 20 minute ride up a hill to be standing in a foot of snow come Saturday. Take some pics.
Understandable but we haven’t seen any -NAO all year and especially not at a favorable time .. we will have it set up during a time where we can actually pull off a big time storm like the Gfs was showing .. all we need is one
It's a very east-based NAO/north Atlantic ridge. And it faded in both strength and duration on the 6z GFS. Instead of displacing the PV toward the south, it at least keeps it in north central/eastern Canada for a time. So not beautiful or outstanding but not horrific either. This configuration is nowhere close to ideal for the SE, but it's much better than having a kiss of death ridge off the SE coast. It will provide a fleeting opportunity for upper portions of the SE to score with temps that are very close, if it comes to pass as predicted.
a 41 degree rainstorm to bring in fab feb, nice!
Fountainguy97
Member
Another good track and no cold. lol I don't think this one will trend toward a wintry event. Maybe the high mountains are in play but the rest of us need a significant trend colder. And the cold source is extremely anemic. Maybe some NW flow on the backside can produce, but again just for favored mountains.
This does not scream winter event for anyone outside of New England. And we would need a substantial trend inside 90hrs to get to wintry precip.
This is what.. miss number 6+ now this winter?