packfan98
Moderator
Another SE snow at 300. The Deep South folks should hold out hope for the next two weeks. Some good looks being spit out. That's about all you can hope for at this point.
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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age
- Thread starter Ilovesnow28
- Start date
GeorgiaGirl
Member
GFS at the very least has been hugging the idea of a cold wave setting in in about 9 days now, if that's true then perhaps we have a shot at something.
#itwasrightaboutaCADsituationinSeptemberlastyear
#itwasrightaboutaCADsituationinSeptemberlastyear
Parker
Member
May be some high ratios with some of the temps modeled on that run
Gfs looks to be issuing warning shots on three potentials .. 1st comes some sort of Anafrontal type system(gotta love them), 2nd seems to be a storm riding on the heels of the frontal system .. then the 3rd seems to be another piece of energy pinwheeling behind that ... ample opportunities in medium to long range .. I’ll take it
The way this winter has gone, I would take my 3" and salute the eastern folks that got a foot.
Incoming again at the end of the run..4 southern snows that run..I mean, we cant go 0 for 4 right?
Storm5
Member
The euro had the same setup at 00z as this 12z gfs run for the day 8/9 stuff that the gfs just showed . The outcome wasn’t the same . But both have strong front moving into the southeast with falling temps getting hung up . Great overrunning setup
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Would love to see what the Euro says in a few days about the coming timeperiod...although it maybe wasn't as good as the GFS runs have been, it kinda didn't look drastically different, did suggest it might try with a front for starters.
Maybe in a few days we will be able to start tracking the February 5th-10th period.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 12z UKMET is really close to being a decent thumping of snow for the I-85 corridor.
Mid 30s with just a very shallow layer of warm air near the surface, and near 0C 925mb temps.
This is taken near Charlotte on Friday night. Borderline wet snow sounding here w/ a near isothermal layer from 850mb to the surface, without any deep layer warm advection, heavier rates would result in some snow if there's sufficient lift in the DGZ. DGZ is somewhat dry however due to CAA and deep layer descent beginning to occur on the backside of the low, but that can certainly change between now & then. A slightly slower and deeper coastal low would certainly increase the potential for +SN near & west of I-85.
Mid 30s with just a very shallow layer of warm air near the surface, and near 0C 925mb temps.
This is taken near Charlotte on Friday night. Borderline wet snow sounding here w/ a near isothermal layer from 850mb to the surface, without any deep layer warm advection, heavier rates would result in some snow if there's sufficient lift in the DGZ. DGZ is somewhat dry however due to CAA and deep layer descent beginning to occur on the backside of the low, but that can certainly change between now & then. A slightly slower and deeper coastal low would certainly increase the potential for +SN near & west of I-85.
Friendly reminder; we may be entering a more favorable Winter weather setup in the "not too far future", please direct all "in my back yard posts" like "what bout here", "what does it show for locationhere" into the banter threads. It's impossible to give a personalized forecast to each individual person, so wait for the maps, or responses for your question(in the banter thread) so we will have a smooth flow of modeling/run information.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Given how this winter has played out thus far, I'm legitimately curious how we're gonna screw it up this time because I'm sure we'll find a way.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
GEFS doesn't really support what the GFS shows storm wise but this looks solid:
Even if you want to call cold bias too. Workable, wish this was at day 10 and not beyond, hopefully we get it there.
Even if you want to call cold bias too. Workable, wish this was at day 10 and not beyond, hopefully we get it there.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
At least 4 separate shortwaves playing a proverbial game of tug-of-war for our day 5 coastal storm.
This is a hot mess.
This is a hot mess.
Fountainguy97
Member
The weekend system has tons of potential. Multiple pieces of energy moving in tandem always can be an interesting event if you get it to all line up. We would likely be talking about a Western NC setup as cold is marginal but its on the table for sure. Not to mention we could have some legit NW flow if we get this sucker to really wrap up.
We are crazy to expect models to nail this down even 80 hrs out. let alone 5-6 days.
Fountainguy97
Member
This could easily be a storm to remember for the northeast. That's a ton of energy flying around.
Parker
Member
I’m watching this one carefully. Have my eye on a place in Maggie Valley that is 3750 feet in elevation and EPS and GEFS have some crazy members showing something really good.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This Euro run kicks our s/w out of the SW US & northern Mexico a bit faster than the previous cycles, should result in better phasing and possibly a bigger storm downstream
Storm5
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Later in the run, the primary wave starts to hang back more than previous cycles, resulting in less phasing & a weak/strung out mess near the SE US coast.
Oconeexman
Member
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Doesnt the Ukie have a warm bias at ground level? I could be wrong tho
TIA