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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

Gfs is close to a great storm day 8/9 . Just need a little more tilt
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To me....this is how, especially I-20 and south (and the I-85 corridor) can really win at a storm. Over-running storm. Outside of CAD events this, again IMHO, is the BEST way to get a good event.
 
Much of the east coast from NC mtns to New England misses this run. Quiet a jump East.
 
It's been hinting for a while really, but the big biases the GFS has are concerning me (yesterday at this time this was on the coast before a few suppressed runs), next few Euro runs will tell me if I should keep along or not, but if it's as close as depicted or trends better, I might actually try to chase this one. Hmm.
 
metwannabe said:
Well it's out there @228 but once again the GFS says prepare for glory on this run. Dang at least 2 runs in a row.... can it be right just once??? PLEASE!
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D10 bullseye. That’s exactly what we want! Remember that big D10 WNC 36” phaser from last Friday? Well, it’s a rainstorm now. But it’s really like @Rain Cold says, “You can’t win em all if you don’t win the first one.” In that, if it’s not showing a snowy solution at d10, you can bet your A double S if wont have one at verification.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
It's been hinting for a while really, but the big biases the GFS has are concerning me, next few Euro runs will tell me if I should keep along or not, but if it's as close as depicted or trends better, I might actually try to chase this one. Hmm.
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The euro was very close last night


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Webberweather53 said:
This is a classic overrunning look for us in the SE US w/ a vortex over the lakes and southern stream wave hanging back over the SW US w/ broad WSW-SWly flow aloft. Would make more sense for us to score in a setup like this versus this past week. Timing of course is everything.

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Webb, I got to say...correct me if I am wrong please, but I know for most south of I-20 and South of I-85 this is usually** our best shot at a winter storm (outside of CAD events)
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is a classic overrunning look for us in the SE US w/ a vortex over the lakes and southern stream wave hanging back over the SW US w/ broad WSW-SWly flow aloft. Would make more sense for us to score in a setup like this versus this past week. Timing of course is everything.

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maybe I’m a touch out of line here but that ridge stretching down into the western Atlantic gives me pause. I’ve seen that trend west to spoil the party time and time again. But I think some ridging that is properly placed off the east coast is actually ideal.. so I’m torn
 
GEFS has a system but it doesn't look too enthused on it staying south enough for even north of I-85 which concerns me some, but I'm waiting on what the Euro has to say.

Edit: I can see why now. 12z GEFS suddenly went to more southeast ridging than even last night's Euro or EPS. Lets see if the Euro says yes or no to that.
 
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Lates GEFS does what it often does: it is coming in significantly warmer than prior runs,,,this time during 2/5-9+ thanks to the usual tendency for more SER resistance than waht prior runs were showing.
 
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Keep in mind that the first 2 images are warmer 12Z GEFS comparisons to 0Z, which themselves were significantly warmer than 12 hours before it (12Z yesterday, which are reflected in the bottom 2 of the 4 GEFS images):

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The AAM peaked at +1.57 on 1/22, which was near the time of the SE cold peak. It has since dropped to +1.16 as of yesterday. The EPS projects it will dip to -0.6 as of 2/11 while the -AAM biased GEFS has it all the way down to -1.56 on 2/11.

The -AAM has a significant (40%) correlation to a stronger SER. That's a key reason why the SER/NE PAC ridge/La Nina-like pattern is making a comeback on models. Thanks to Maxar for teaching me about this.
 
GaWx said:
The AAM peaked at +1.57 on 1/22, which was near the time of the SE cold peak. It has since dropped to +1.16 as of yesterday. The EPS projects it will dip to -0.6 as of 2/11 while the -AAM biased GEFS has it all the way down to -1.56 on 2/11.

The -AAM has a significant (40%) correlation to a stronger SER. That's a key reason why the SER/NE PAC ridge/La Nina-like pattern is making a comeback on models. Thanks to Maxar for teaching me about this.
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Not to mention, this “-AAM” is coming at a time where we are starting to warmup from the depths of winter, so this starts influencing and increasing the threat of severe weather as we head into late winter/spring
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Not to mention, this “-AAM” is coming at a time where we are starting to warmup from the depths of winter, so this starts influencing and increasing the threat of severe weather as we head into late winter/spring
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Actually, I'm leaning toward it coming back up to a +AAM late Feb or early March helping us to get colder again then.
 
GaWx said:
Actually, I'm leaning toward it coming back up to a +AAM late Feb or early March helping us to get colder again then.
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I know, I’m just saying, this is why people on wx twitter get excited from a -AAM during spring
 
At least the Euro still has some nice NW flow snow, and that was a sizeable western shift. This one is far from over
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I’m also just speaking for WNC and mountains.
 
GaWx said:
The AAM peaked at +1.57 on 1/22, which was near the time of the SE cold peak. It has since dropped to +1.16 as of yesterday. The EPS projects it will dip to -0.6 as of 2/11 while the -AAM biased GEFS has it all the way down to -1.56 on 2/11.

The -AAM has a significant (40%) correlation to a stronger SER. That's a key reason why the SER/NE PAC ridge/La Nina-like pattern is making a comeback on models. Thanks to Maxar for teaching me about this.
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This is probably why the gefs has that more “dramatic” ugly look at the end of its run (shallow ridge south of Alaska, -PNA, SER ) from its bias
 
Yeah, I don't think this Euro is going to do it. Has a LOT more southeast ridge compared to 0z so far. I'll watch for another day or two, but we might be about to be SOL here as well.

Edit: and as far as I care, for winter too outside of the Appalachian Mountains and maybe western part of the south.
 
deltadog03 said:
Webb, I got to say...correct me if I am wrong please, but I know for most south of I-20 and South of I-85 this is usually** our best shot at a winter storm (outside of CAD events)
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Yes, you need patterns like this that throw as much cold air as possible into the SE US because even a halfway decent cold shot isn’t often sufficient enough to produce snow south of I 20
 
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