That trailing wave and just this whole storm in general has given me some serious anxiety
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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age
- Thread starter Ilovesnow28
- Start date
That trailing wave and just this whole storm in general has given me some serious anxiety
yeah, 18z only goes to 90. 18z EPS goes to 144
We need some help..this one had better make some solid adjustments soon
its amazing how the GEFS has absolutely nothing but the EPS has plenty of members with snow and some with a ton.
In years past, I’d love to be in the Euro and EPS ballpark, but right now I just don’t know. The CMC also looked fine for the NW snow, so that’s at least two models, but this run to run variability is nuts.
Didn’t know if I should put it in January/February but here is the Nam Friday night/Saturday morning
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I don’t wanna get sucked in, but this one does have the moisture
Kicking off 00z right! Snowfall map is not out yet on tropical tidbits, but I'd imagine its a pretty one. Looked like snow from 6 pm- 3 AM, and absolutely hammering around midnight saturday. Give me more of that hot action!
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Jessy89
Member
If the mountains are gonna get a couple inches Friday night. Perhaps Saturday morning would be a good day to drive up to get pancakes at Joey’s pancake house. 
we will see
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NAM looked a lot like those good ICON runs we saw a few days ago ?..wiggle room?
Also looks like some pretty NW flow kicking in at the end of that run. Snowfall map 
FWIW, the NAM supported snow as far south as CLT (sounding from CLT) isothermal soundings with solid lift in/below the DGZ, your average paste bomb sounding other than the DGZ being a little dry 
Icon is ?
GFS going to be last to the party for the WNC mountain storm this weekend. Looked like temps were going to be a little cooler at the surface to me but then shot up some.
Jessy89
Member
Gfs not giving up on feb 6-8th. This time it’s Friday morning event. Probably a quick minor event. Point is potential still alive please euro bite
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Jeez talk about borderline
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Cmc is showing rain and temps in the 60s. I think we all know what the euro will show
Gfs not giving up on feb 6-8th. This time it’s Friday morning event. Probably a quick minor event. Point is potential still alive please euro bite
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Brent
Member
I say the 0z icon is headed in the right direction
that has snow here in the frame before... its wrong lol
FWIW 0z Euro looks great day 7-10 improvement from 12z.
Euro was very close to something big again... we’re going to see some model waffling back and forth over the coming days but now we know .. somethings still brewing for that time period and we have an opportunity to time it right here .. also a lot of improvement with heights in Greenland this run much more blocking than present last nights run
olhausen
Member
Yeah the euro gives some hope this run.
Clem282340
Member
Was the euro close something big for a broad wide winter event
EPS ? Cold vortex in Canada retreating 
Hmmmm 
Don't get suckered in to the NAM people it's called nammed for a reason!
Get some good ensemble spread lock in the op inside 120hr and we got a storm at least that's how it was back in the day I've yet to see it this winter....
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The toughest of scenes.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Basically the entire GEFS several run trend from day 5 onward looks terrible.
ATLwxfan
Member
snowlover91
Member
There will be severe weather threats popping up soon if it warms up enough and then in mid to late March we will get plenty of setups that we will say "if only this were January we'd be digging out" but instead will be watching 30s/40s and rain lol, that's how we roll. Warm winter and cool spring.
I'd take the over at 3 but under around 7.5. We've done a decent job at getting cool to cold at night lately
if you let me have it at 3.5 I’ll take the under. First half of February looks like they lay an egg so I’ll take my chances
I keep thinking this string of anomalously warm Februarys has to end at some point. Looking more likely to happen yet again...
NoSnowATL
Member
It’s amazing we haven’t even sniffed phase 8 or 1. Not even close.
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I’m counting on heavy cloud cover to spoil those overnight lows even if cold air moves this way to end the month. Feb is basically spring. Bet the streak.
Well the good news is ph4 is the warmest for Feb nino, even warmer than 5. So after that, anything else will be an improvement.