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Pattern ENSO Updates

Nino 3.4 rose to 0.7 C.

With weekly SSTs stubbornly remaining within lower end weak El Niño, there’s a chance that FMA will barely remain in lower end weak. If that happens, a very weak ONI based El Niño may end up being the case on the latest version of the ONI chart as 5 trimonthly +0.5 readings in a row would be achieved.

Looking ahead, is there a reasonable chance that weak El Niño will persist through summer? What about fall/winter? Any opinions?
 
With weekly SSTs stubbornly remaining within lower end weak El Niño, there’s a chance that FMA will barely remain in lower end weak. If that happens, a very weak ONI based El Niño may end up being the case on the latest version of the ONI chart as 5 trimonthly +0.5 readings in a row would be achieved.

Looking ahead, is there a reasonable chance that weak El Niño will persist through summer? What about fall/winter? Any opinions?
Sure hope we don’t see a Niño for a long long time ... ready reshuffle things. Give me a moderate strong La Niña
 
Sure hope we don’t see a Niño for a long long time ... ready reshuffle things. Give me a moderate strong La Niña

My feeling is that to really get a reshuffle, the best bet would be to finally get a relative cooling of the ridiculously warm W Pacific equatorial region as they’ve been largely in control the last few years regardless of ENSO.
 
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I think a moderate Nina is coming and that this winter will make last years look cold
It will change many time between here and than. I'm not worried this far out, I've had the best luck with winter storms from Nina's. BRING IT
 
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