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Pattern ENSO Updates

EPS Equatorial Pacific 850mb zonal wind forecast thru the end of August, strong easterly trades will continue to dominate the entire basin especially across the dateline. Chances even for a warm biased neutral ENSO winter are fading fast...
DHh3u3xXgAIf5hy.jpg
 
Webberweather53 said:
EPS Equatorial Pacific 850mb zonal wind forecast thru the end of August, strong easterly trades will continue to dominate the entire basin especially across the dateline. Chances even for a warm biased neutral ENSO winter are fading fast...
View attachment 878
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Webb,

Remind me not to dress you as Santa at the Christmas party! LOL ... ;)
 
Webberweather53 said:
EPS Equatorial Pacific 850mb zonal wind forecast thru the end of August, strong easterly trades will continue to dominate the entire basin especially across the dateline. Chances even for a warm biased neutral ENSO winter are fading fast...
View attachment 878
Click to expand...

So you are saying cancel winter. Wonderful


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Idk if la nina will happen or not. If we can see 1 good winterstorm or 2 ill be happen. Anything better than the last 2 years.
 
^ Actually, whereas I still feel that the chances of a cold SE winter went down solidly once El Nino failed and I'm not going to back down from that, I don't think that the rising chance of a weak Nina vs neutral makes those chances any lower.. If anything, they rise back to the avg for all winters. Here's why using KATL as a proxy for the SE as a whole:

Coldest 20% were: 1/7 of SEN, 1/3 of MEN to WEN, 1/8 of N, 1/5 of WLN, 1/7 of MLN, 1/14 of SLN

Clearly, one can see that MEN to WEN is the sweet spot. Once that is missed, the chance plunges from 1/3 to 1/8 when going to N. However, it actually is better to be in the WLN area vs N with 1/5 or average chance for all winters. Now, if it cooled further to MLN and especially SLN territory, chances would look worse again to have a top 20% cold winter.

Coldest 10% were: 0% of SEN, 1/4 of MEN to WEN, 1/18 of N, 1/8 of WLN, 1/16 of MLN, 0% of SLN

Similar pattern to top 20%. A WLN winter's chances of being very cold are pretty close to the chance for all winters, combined.

Summary: if we can't get a WEN/MEN, which is by far the best option, then I'd rather be at WLN than anything else for the best shot at a cold SE winter since it gives us a near average chance even though that chance is well below 50% since well under 50% of all winters are cold. All other ENSO have resulted in below average chances.


Note that I started SLN at -1.3 and MLN at -0.9 to even distribution out vs WLN
 
^ I forgot to mention this. For KATL, there were 3 of the 20% coldest winters that were WLN: 1894-5, 1903-4, and 1917-8. All 3 were huge there regarding wintry precip! Check you local area to see how you did. Even lowly SAV had wintry in all 3 and at least one high below 32, a rare thing!
 
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GaWx said:
^ I forgot to mention this. For KATL, there were 3 of the 20% coldest winters that were WLN: 1894-5, 1903-4, and 1917-8. All 3 were huge there regarding wintry precip! Check you local area to see how you did. Even lowly SAV had wintry in all 3 and at least one high below 32, a rare thing!
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Yeah in 1903-04 I actually have picked up on a winter storm that hit central NC a week before November... This is just plain bizarre...
October 24-25 1903 NC Snowmap.png
 
GaWx said:
^ I forgot to mention this. For KATL, there were 3 of the 20% coldest winters that were WLN: 1894-5, 1903-4, and 1917-8. All 3 were huge there regarding wintry precip! Check you local area to see how you did. Even lowly SAV had wintry in all 3 and at least one high below 32, a rare thing!
Click to expand...

There was a big dog in December 1917, arguably one of the coldest months on record in the Carolinas...
December 12-13 1917 NC Snowmap.png
 
La Niña chances (mainly weak) continue to increase based on recent trends.
 
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