• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern ENSO Updates

Well ok then
bed213651be000d9a64925112258c75d.jpg


Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
Anything from cold neutral to borderline strong NINA is legitimately on the table at the moment with a low-mid grade moderate event seeming to be the current consensus
Click to expand...

I'd like to see a weak Niña (say, a peak of -0.6 to -0.9) rather than a stronger Niña or a cold neutral for the best shot (which would mean avg shot) at a colder than normal SE winter. Whereas I still feel that the chances of a cold SE winter went down solidly once El Nino failed and I'm not going to back down from that, I don't think that the rising chance of a weak Nina vs neutral makes those chances any lower. If anything, they rise back to the avg for all winters. Here's why using KATL as a proxy for the SE as a whole:

Coldest 20% were: 1/7 of SEN, 1/3 of MEN to WEN, 1/8 of N, 1/5 of WLN, 1/7 of MLN, 1/14 of SLN

Clearly, one can see that MEN to WEN is the sweet spot. Once that is missed, the chance plunges from 1/3 to 1/8 when going to N. However, it actually is better to be in the WLN area vs N with 1/5 or average chance for all winters. Now, if it cooled further to MLN and especially SLN territory, chances would look worse again to have a top 20% cold winter. With the chances of MLN increasing per Webber, the near average chance for a cold SE winter would drop to below average chance. Should it go all of the way to SLN, the chance would drop down to very low. I'm still giving WLN a decent chance.

**Edit: These stats are based on defining weak Niña as -0.5 to just under -0.9 peak trimonthly. Moderate is -0.9 to just under -1.3. Strong is -1.3 and beyond. Generally, to get a weak Niña, the peak trimonthly pretty much needs to get to near -0.6 though a -0.5 peak trimonthly weak Niña isn't impossible.
 
Last edited:
A little bit. La Niña usually get classified when it is below -.5 C for three months.
 
Nino 3.4 rose from -0.6 to -0.4 in today's weekly release. That's a little bit of good news for those who'd prefer any possible La Nina be weak. However, there's still a long way to go.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
I didn't see that coming.... Good news for sure.
Click to expand...

In that this recent trend significantly reduces the chance for a moderate to strong La Nina, I agree 100% and I'm glad to see it. However, although a weak El Nino is most preferred based on history, that same history also says that a weak La Nina is somewhat better on average than neutral. Let's see where this goes.
 
Last edited:
It looks like cooling in 3.4 has resumed in a big way per TAO & this is being supported by a solid +SOI & cool subsfc. So, we may very well be on the doorstep of La Niña. I can't yet eliminate even the chance for moderate Niña though I currently favor weak.
 
Today's report has Nino 3.4 having cooled a whopping 0.5 from the prior week down to -0.5, A one week cooling of 0.5 in Nino 3.4 is a big deal as there have been only two faster coolings in one week there since at least 1990, -0.6 last year during June and -0.7 during June of 1998. There was a 0.5 cooling in Oct of 2007.
 
GaWx said:
Today's report has Nino 3.4 having cooled a whopping 0.5 from the prior week down to -0.5, A one week cooling of 0.5 in Nino 3.4 is a big deal as there have been only two faster coolings in one week there since at least 1990, -0.6 last year during June and -0.7 during June of 1998. There was a 0.5 cooling in Oct of 2007.
Click to expand...

Not what we wanted to see, but thanks Larry for keeping us up to date. Can't deny, I am a little nervous now.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Not what we wanted to see, but thanks Larry for keeping us up to date. Can't deny, I am a little nervous now.
Click to expand...

Don't fret as a weak La Niña (peak under -0.9) for the trimonthly max could very well still be where we end up. That per history would give the SE US a decent shot at a cold winter along with the chance for normal or warm.
 
I've learned more about ENSO over the last two years from you and Webber and others. Thanks for the updates!!! I will say im getting a bit nervous because usually when things look good they end up bad and when things look iffy the end up bad as well. But with that said, the information is greatly appreciated and is hopefully being retained so that one day I'll know what a going on

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top