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Pattern ENSO Updates (2 Viewers)

metwannabe

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After some further analysis of the very warm OHC as shown above and when considering stronger forecasted 3.4 peaks on the UKMET and other models for this winter, I think it really is going to be difficult to end up with only a weak El Niño ONI peak this winter. And even a strong, which I had earlier given very low chance, now has to be given a higher chance than “very low”. Other opinions?

Oct OHC > +1/year/Nino strength
+2.56/1997/super
+2.07/1982/super
+1.91/2015/super
+1.72/2002/moderate
+1.50 and warming/2018/????
+1.41/1991/strong
+1.12/1994/moderate
+1.04/2009/strong
I think I'd rather take my chances with Mod instead of a strong El NIno.... although a strong can lend itself to big dog snows if everything else lines up just right, from what I've read about the only thing you can count on in a strong el nino is wetter than normal.

As far as chances of strong v. mod.... I haven't a clue b/c I'm still reading/learning about ENSO but looking at the trends that all of you have been posting it certainly would seem strong has to be considered a real possibility at this time.
 

metwannabe

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This was posted somewhere back I'm sure or has been mentioned but I'll put it here as it seems to sum it up nicely...

El Niño brings infrequent, but sometimes large snowstorms...



In contrast to rainfall, snowfall anomalies are not nearly as easy to predict during strong El Niño winters. During the El Niño winter of 1972-1973 the single largest snowfall ever seen in Florence and Columbia, SC occurred February 9-11, 1973. This was also the second-largest snowstorm on record in Wilmington, NC and Myrtle Beach, SC. Strong El Niños in 1991-1992 and 1997-1998 brought very little (if any) snowfall to the Carolinas. Nearly all stations reported below-normal or zero totals for those winters.

Even in a normal (non El Niño) winter snowfall statistics for the coastal Southeastern U.S. are -- strange. For example Wilmington's annual average snowfall is 1.6 inches. However snowfall statistics also show we average less than one measurable snow event per year. The standard deviation computed for Wilmington's historic snowfall events is much larger than the annual average!

Computing a simple average snowfall across the six previous strong El Niño winters shows above-normal totals all across the Carolinas. However this statistic is dominated by a small number of very large snowstorms, particularly during the winters of 1972-1973 and 1982-1983, which overwhelms the totals. El Niño does enhance the frequency of wintertime low pressure systems with heavy precipitation, a few of which may encounter cold enough air to produce snow across the Carolinas.
 

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This was posted somewhere back I'm sure or has been mentioned but I'll put it here as it seems to sum it up nicely...

El Niño brings infrequent, but sometimes large snowstorms...



In contrast to rainfall, snowfall anomalies are not nearly as easy to predict during strong El Niño winters. During the El Niño winter of 1972-1973 the single largest snowfall ever seen in Florence and Columbia, SC occurred February 9-11, 1973. This was also the second-largest snowstorm on record in Wilmington, NC and Myrtle Beach, SC. Strong El Niños in 1991-1992 and 1997-1998 brought very little (if any) snowfall to the Carolinas. Nearly all stations reported below-normal or zero totals for those winters.

Even in a normal (non El Niño) winter snowfall statistics for the coastal Southeastern U.S. are -- strange. For example Wilmington's annual average snowfall is 1.6 inches. However snowfall statistics also show we average less than one measurable snow event per year. The standard deviation computed for Wilmington's historic snowfall events is much larger than the annual average!

Computing a simple average snowfall across the six previous strong El Niño winters shows above-normal totals all across the Carolinas. However this statistic is dominated by a small number of very large snowstorms, particularly during the winters of 1972-1973 and 1982-1983, which overwhelms the totals. El Niño does enhance the frequency of wintertime low pressure systems with heavy precipitation, a few of which may encounter cold enough air to produce snow across the Carolinas.
So in a strong El Niño we need all the pieces to get the snow and usually it’s one big one otherwise we bust?
 

metwannabe

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That's kind of my interpretation of the relatively small sample size as well but I don't think it's all or nothing. There certainly can be mediocre winter events it just looks to me like there's no clear tendency one way or the other.
So in a strong El Niño we need all the pieces to get the snow and usually it’s one big one otherwise we bust?
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That's kind of my interpretation of the relatively small sample size as well but I don't think it's all or nothing. There certainly can be mediocre winter events it just looks to me like there's no clear tendency one way or the other.

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Here's the same analysis with more than double the amount of samples using pre-1950 ENSO data via my ENS ONI index.
Each red/blue color increment represents a difference of 0.5, 1.0, & > 2 sigma from the available NINO samples.

El Nino winters generally tend to slightly favor the piedmont and mountains if anything, there's some noise in the coastal plain and coastal areas like Wilmington. Charlotte actually averages more snow in strong-super El Ninos than Raleigh does, again hinting at this underlying favorability to the piedmont & mountains. We're clearly headed into a weak-moderate El Nino this year so I could do a similar analysis with even more samples and see if any discernible signal emerges, likely will be a muddled one if anything in the west-central piedmont and mountains.

Screen Shot 2018-10-17 at 2.42.35 PM.png
 

metwannabe

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Here's the same analysis with more than double the amount of samples using pre-1950 ENSO data via my ENS ONI index.
Each red/blue color increment represents a difference of 0.5, 1.0, & > 2 sigma from the available NINO samples.

El Nino winters generally tend to slightly favor the piedmont and mountains if anything, there's some noise in the coastal plain and coastal areas like Wilmington. Charlotte actually averages more snow in strong-super El Ninos than Raleigh does, again hinting at this underlying favorability to the piedmont & mountains. We're clearly headed into a weak-moderate El Nino this year so I could do a similar analysis with even more samples and see if any discernible signal emerges, likely will be a muddled one if anything in the west-central piedmont and mountains.

View attachment 7028
Don't you think some of those averages may be skewed by some less occurring but very significant winter storms? It just seems to me that the one constant with mod to strong el nino's is a wetter than average pattern and temps are a little bit more of a crap shoot. I'm wondering if, even in the more favored western areas, that saw big totals in El Nino years was just one or two big dog events because of more juice up atmosphere. Just thinking out loud here....

While the number of above average outweigh the below average in that chart, in those below average years there are a lot of goose eggs
 
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Don't you think some of those averages may be skewed by some less occurring but very significant winter storms? It just seems to me that the one constant with mod to strong el nino's is a wetter than average pattern and temps are a little bit more of a crap shoot. I'm wondering if, even in the more favored western areas, that saw big totals in El Nino years was just one or two big dog events because of more juice up atmosphere. Just thinking out loud here....

While the number of above average outweigh the below average in that chart, in those below average years there are a lot of goose eggs
They’re definitely skewed, the climatological seasonal snowfall distribution in the coastal plain and coastal areas is logarithmic, generally satisfying the Zipfian distribution where about 80% or so of the total snowfall for a given area occurs in about (or less than) the top 20% of winters, it partially explains why we don’t see much of signal outside the piedmont and mountains but as you go further NW towards areas like the Triad and Asheville, we usually see several events per year many of which are moderate or large. A majority of the big winters snowfall-wise around here even in the good ol days usually feature one maybe two “massive” snowstorms and a couple moderately sized events. 1935-36 is a very notable exception to this stereotypical behavior in big winters w/ a parade of several moderate-large winter storms annihilating NC east of the mountains & producing a statewide mean above 25” or about 3.5-4x the long term average.
 
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Give me a super suppressed pattern and I’ll take my chances. I’d rather have a swing and a miss LP tracking across central/south Florida than a coastal scraper with borderline temps. Let’s get that STJ pumping in Mid December and ride it til the bitter end
 

metwannabe

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They’re definitely skewed, the climatological seasonal snowfall distribution in the coastal plain and coastal areas is logarithmic, generally satisfying the Zipfian distribution where about 80% or so of the total snowfall for a given area occurs in about (or less than) the top 20% of winters, it partially explains why we don’t see much of signal outside the piedmont and mountains but as you go further NW towards areas like the Triad and Asheville, we usually see several events per year many of which are moderate or large. A majority of the big winters snowfall-wise around here even in the good ol days usually feature one maybe two “massive” snowstorms and a couple moderately sized events. 1935-36 is a very notable exception to this stereotypical behavior in big winters w/ a parade of several moderate-large winter storms annihilating NC east of the mountains & producing a statewide mean above 25” or about 3.5-4x the long term average.
I think I'm picking up what you're dropping down haha. Basically maybe some would say I'm being a Debbie Downer or don't know what I'm talking about, which the latter is quite possible. I'm playing Devil's Advocate or just being a realist but in my humble opinion an El Nino basically says I'm supplying the fuel but the rest of the players need to step up to close the deal.

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pcbjr

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I think I'm picking up what you're dropping down haha. Basically maybe some would say I'm being a Debbie Downer or don't know what I'm talking about, which the latter is quite possible. I'm playing Devil's Advocate or just being a realist but in my humble opinion an El Nino basically says I'm supplying the fuel but the rest of the players need to step up to close the deal.

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substitute "fuel" for "beer and shrimp" and you got it nailed ... :D
 
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I think I'm picking up what you're dropping down haha. Basically maybe some would say I'm being a Debbie Downer or don't know what I'm talking about, which the latter is quite possible. I'm playing Devil's Advocate or just being a realist but in my humble opinion an El Nino basically says I'm supplying the fuel but the rest of the players need to step up to close the deal.

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Yeah that’s essentially how everyone should treat El Niño winters like this around here, the propensity for storms and esp large ones is so much higher in Ninos but this usually favors areas that already have high snowfall climo.
 

metwannabe

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Here's the same analysis with more than double the amount of samples using pre-1950 ENSO data via my ENS ONI index.
Each red/blue color increment represents a difference of 0.5, 1.0, & > 2 sigma from the available NINO samples.

El Nino winters generally tend to slightly favor the piedmont and mountains if anything, there's some noise in the coastal plain and coastal areas like Wilmington. Charlotte actually averages more snow in strong-super El Ninos than Raleigh does, again hinting at this underlying favorability to the piedmont & mountains. We're clearly headed into a weak-moderate El Nino this year so I could do a similar analysis with even more samples and see if any discernible signal emerges, likely will be a muddled one if anything in the west-central piedmont and mountains.

View attachment 7028
Man I completely misspoke, or miss typed, in my original question to this chart. It's been a long day I did not mean averages I meant don't you think some of those snowfall totals for the individual El Nino Winters may be skewed. You know what I'm saying for instance the winter of 1930 - 1931 there's some big totals in there, were there just one or two big dog systems or was it a cold snowy winter overall? I guess my point to all of this is as has been mentioned before El Nino doesn't guarantee a great winter there certainly are a lot of other things that need to lineup for things to work, guess I'd rather just temper my expectations so to minimize the disappointment later haha.

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pcbjr

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Man I completely misspoke, or miss typed, in my original question to this chart. It's been a long day I did not mean averages I meant don't you think some of those snowfall totals for the individual El Nino Winters may be skewed. You know what I'm saying for instance the winter of 1930 - 1931 there's some big totals in there, were there just one or two big dog systems or was it a cold snowy winter overall? I guess my point to all of this is asriel he's been mentioned before El Nino doesn't guarantee a great winter there certainly are a lot of other things that need to lineup for things to work, guess I'd rather just temper my expectations so to minimize the disappointment later haha.

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It's a scratch off lottery ticket (this isn't South Bend or Buffalo) ... but it's fun like at the Kangaroo counter dropping that $5.00 on the chance for ... :confused:
 
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GaWx

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Man I completely misspoke, or miss typed, in my original question to this chart. It's been a long day I did not mean averages I meant don't you think some of those snowfall totals for the individual El Nino Winters may be skewed. You know what I'm saying for instance the winter of 1930 - 1931 there's some big totals in there, were there just one or two big dog systems or was it a cold snowy winter overall? I guess my point to all of this is as has been mentioned before El Nino doesn't guarantee a great winter there certainly are a lot of other things that need to lineup for things to work, guess I'd rather just temper my expectations so to minimize the disappointment later haha.
In case anyone cares, ATL had a few small events (traces) in 1930-1 and what may have been a moderate icestorm in mid-Dec,, but it was otherwise a typical cold rain dominated winter with some close calls. Total SN/IP only 0.1" vs 2" average.
 
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Man I completely misspoke, or miss typed, in my original question to this chart. It's been a long day I did not mean averages I meant don't you think some of those snowfall totals for the individual El Nino Winters may be skewed. You know what I'm saying for instance the winter of 1930 - 1931 there's some big totals in there, were there just one or two big dog systems or was it a cold snowy winter overall? I guess my point to all of this is as has been mentioned before El Nino doesn't guarantee a great winter there certainly are a lot of other things that need to lineup for things to work, guess I'd rather just temper my expectations so to minimize the disappointment later haha.

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1930-31 is very analogous to 1986-87 in terms of both snowfall amounts and how they were distributed in east-central NC. A 2-3 day monster CAD event in mid December (Dec 15-18 1930) was the big dog that winter, producing something in the ballpark of 7-8” on average over the state (more than we usually get for an entire winter) and completely screwed over Raleigh and areas east with an IP fest. A pair of moderately sized winter storms appeared on January 8-9 1931 & January 14-15 1931 (I'm in the process of analyzing those events and quality controlling the data associated w/ them), and another medium event came on March 3-4 1931. The storm on March 3-4 1931 completely screwed over areas like RDU (again) while the central-western piedmont and east-central coastal plain cashed in. In terms of statewide average snowfall, the winter of 1930-31 ranks among the snowiest (I havent but doesn’t seem to be quite as snowy as winters like 1935-36, 1926-27, etc)

December 15-18 1930 NC Snowmap.png

March 3-4 1931 NC Snowmap.png


If you wanna see something crazy snowfall-wise in your backyard from a pair of big dogs just wait til you see the 1947-48 winter seasonal snow map, it was like 1926-27 in terms of snow amounts except the northern coastal plain got annihilated this time. Areas like Scotland Neck got 30", and Nashville about 36" of snow on the season.
 
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1930-31 is very analogous to 1986-87 in terms of both snowfall amounts and how they were distributed in east-central NC. A 2-3 day monster CAD event in mid December (Dec 15-18 1930) was the big dog that winter, producing something in the ballpark of 7-8” on average over the state (more than we usually get for an entire winter) and completely screwed over Raleigh and areas east with an IP fest. A pair of moderately sized winter storms appeared on January 8-9 1931 & January 14-15 1931 (I'm in the process of analyzing those events and quality controlling the data associated w/ them), and another medium event came on March 3-4 1931. The storm on March 3-4 1931 completely screwed over areas like RDU (again) while the central-western piedmont and east-central coastal plain cashed in. In terms of statewide average snowfall, the winter of 1930-31 ranks among the snowiest (I havent but doesn’t seem to be quite as snowy as winters like 1935-36, 1926-27, etc)

View attachment 7029

View attachment 7030


If you wanna see something crazy snowfall-wise in your backyard from a pair of big dogs just wait til you see the 1947-48 winter seasonal snow map, it was like 1926-27 in terms of snow amounts except the northern coastal plain got annihilated this time. Areas like Scotland Neck got 30", and Nashville about 36" of snow on the season.

As an aside, to go along w/ the aforementioned theme with big winters, most of 1947-48's snow came in those back-to-back monsters in late January and early-mid February 1948.

I'd also like to mention that you got a white christmas in northern Halifax county during 1947-48 on top of getting about 25"+ of snow on the season.


December 24-25 1947 NC Snowmap.png
January 31-February 1 1948 NC Snow map.png
February 9-10 1948 NC Snowmap.png
 

metwannabe

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I remember it like it was yesterday
As an aside, to go along w/ the aforementioned theme with big winters, most of 1947-48's snow came in those back-to-back monsters in late January and early-mid February 1948.

I'd also like to mention that you got a white christmas in northern Halifax county during 1947-48 on top of getting about 25"+ of snow on the season.


View attachment 7031
View attachment 7033
View attachment 7032
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Interesting. So what data do they use that justifies the higher temp anomalies? Do they have buoys, ship data, or other satellite derived data they blend?
Great questions that I don’t have answers to off the top of my head. By the way, I should add that Tidbits and the buoy based maps also often don’t jibe well.
 
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Great questions that I don’t have answers to off the top of my head. By the way, I should add that Tidbits and the buoy based maps also often don’t jibe well.
CPC uses the weekly version of OISSTv2 in their analyses, this dataset uses buoys, satellites, ships, & optimum interpolation to fill in the gaps
 
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Sure looks to me like we are heading to a stronger/weak classification or weaker/moderate El Nino. The key for us will be where the warmest water is located, the central to western Pacific or the Eastern Pacific and all indications point to the Central Modoki type
 
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We’re almost certainly headed for a modoki-esque event this winter, the big hint to that is the positive North Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) & negative SPMM with cold water east of extratropical South America. Weaker El Niños are also more likely to be focused in the central Pacific because the thermocline is often not suppressed enough to compensate for the considerable and enhanced upwelling that takes place on the equator due to the cyclonic wind stress curl associated with the westerly winds that via Sverdrup Transport, increase meridional mass transport
 

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