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Pattern ENSO Updates

MichaelJ said:
Thanks Bham, how anyone reading that can think a La Nina is a good thing is beyond me
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Yeah I was actually surprised that temperatures we're not higher compared to average.. I guess it depends on the strength of the La nina.
 
Idk, I might take my chances with a weak Nina (final edit, I know there is plenty of time for it to get to where it's more than a weak Nina).

1. One of our last Nino winters basically acted like a Nina anyway (not that it was a good winter, but it acted like a Nina even though it was technically a Nino). So, why not just go ahead and have a Nina instead of a Nino that might give false hope.

2. The EPO has been by large, what's controlled most of the last major southeast winter storms anyway. It might not be as good in the eastern parts of the southeast but when we've had an -EPO we've had more shots. The 17/18 winter ended early due to the Nina but I seem to be remembering we had multiple good enough -EPO's for a shot before it ended and that was the main controlling factor.
 
SD said:
Give me a la nina with a -nao and I'll ride that horse to the bank
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And how often do you think this has happened? Since 1950, here are the years where we had weak la nina's 1954-55, 1964-65, 1971-72, 74-75, 83-84, 84-85, 2000-2001, 05-06, 08-09, 16-17, 17-18
Moderate La Ninas 1955-56, 70-71, 95-96, 2011-12
Strong 1988-89, 98-99, 99-2000, 07-08, 2010-11
While I realize GSO is not the only city in our region, it is one of the snowiest on average. During weak La Nina years, snowfall was roughly 20% below normal. During moderate years, it average about 25% below normal. During strong years it averaged 38% below normal. Now we had a couple of years where it was nice totals but by and large we need to hope for the weakest Nina we can get because the percentage of normal snow goes down as Nina gets stronger.
 
MichaelJ said:
And how often do you think this has happened? Since 1950, here are the years where we had weak la nina's 1954-55, 1964-65, 1971-72, 74-75, 83-84, 84-85, 2000-2001, 05-06, 08-09, 16-17, 17-18
Moderate La Ninas 1955-56, 70-71, 95-96, 2011-12
Strong 1988-89, 98-99, 99-2000, 07-08, 2010-11
While I realize GSO is not the only city in our region, it is one of the snowiest on average. During weak La Nina years, snowfall was roughly 20% below normal. During moderate years, it average about 25% below normal. During strong years it averaged 38% below normal. Now we had a couple of years where it was nice totals but by and large we need to hope for the weakest Nina we can get because the percentage of normal snow goes down as Nina gets stronger.
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Its really not more or less frequent than anything else.
 
We can talk as much as we want about ENSO but the odds are imo the SE will have another solidly AN winter, regardless. The trend is our friend (or enemy in this case for those like me who would prefer cold) and GW is getting worse despite the current sunspot minimum. Also and very importantly, the Indonesia and vicinity SSTs remain ridiculously warm. That promotes the MJO being in the warm phases a lot (right side of the circle/SE ridge domination) like what has happened in recent winters. So, not only do we have background GW getting worse, we have the MJO making it even warmer. I'm expecting mild (at least several degrees warmer than normal), but will still enjoy what are always my favorite times of year, autumn and winter as we finally get by the domination of hot and humid and we get the typical wide swings/wx changes from day to day

Regardless of my thinking, my feeling is that there's little reason to think that most SE forecasts will be for AN for DJF averaged out due to bias/weenyism. I can't remember even one winter in my ~20 years following SE wx boards that most winter forecasts were warm. Not even one. So, we know the strong cold bias in seasonal forecasts is real.
 
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GaWx said:
We can talk as much as we want about ENSO but the odds are imo the SE will have another solidly AN winter, regardless. The trend is our friend (or enemy in this case for those like me who would prefer cold) and GW is getting worse despite the current sunspot minimum. Also and very importantly, the Indonesia and vicinity SSTs remain ridiculously warm. That promotes the MJO being in the warm phases a lot (right side of the circle/SE ridge domination) like what has happened in recent winters. So, not only do we have background GW getting worse, we have the MJO making it even warmer. I'm expecting mild (at least several degrees warmer than normal), but will still enjoy what are always my favorite times of year, autumn and winter as we finally get by the domination of hot and humid and we get the typical wide swings/wx changes from day to day

Regardless of my thinking, my feeling is that there's little reason to think that most SE forecasts will be for AN for DJF averaged out due to bias/weenyism. I can't remember even one winter in my ~20 years following SE wx boards that most winter forecasts were warm. Not even one. So, we know the strong cold bias in seasonal forecasts is real.
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There is an element of wish-casting involved. Folks let their feelings influence their better judgments.
 
GaWx said:
We can talk as much as we want about ENSO but the odds are imo the SE will have another solidly AN winter, regardless. The trend is our friend (or enemy in this case for those like me who would prefer cold) and GW is getting worse despite the current sunspot minimum. Also and very importantly, the Indonesia and vicinity SSTs remain ridiculously warm. That promotes the MJO being in the warm phases a lot (right side of the circle/SE ridge domination) like what has happened in recent winters. So, not only do we have background GW getting worse, we have the MJO making it even warmer. I'm expecting mild (at least several degrees warmer than normal), but will still enjoy what are always my favorite times of year, autumn and winter as we finally get by the domination of hot and humid and we get the typical wide swings/wx changes from day to day

Regardless of my thinking, my feeling is that there's little reason to think that most SE forecasts will be for AN for DJF averaged out due to bias/weenyism. I can't remember even one winter in my ~20 years following SE wx boards that most winter forecasts were warm. Not even one. So, we know the strong cold bias in seasonal forecasts is real.
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I'm not sure it's possible anymore to finish winter anything but above average. It's hard enough to get any given month below average, much less a season.

With La Nina looming I see this winter breaking records and not in the way we want. We know the NAO is a lost cause anymore for whatever reason and that almost certainly will continue. Combine that with the warm waters of Indonesia where the MJO will likely screw up any EPO help and you have a recipe for disaster. I hope I'm wrong as my pessimism has hit all time highs the last 5 years or so for winter, but odds are I'm correct.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I'm not sure it's possible anymore to finish winter anything but above average. It's hard enough to get any given month below average, much less a season.

With La Nina looming I see this winter breaking records and not in the way we want. We know the NAO is a lost cause anymore for whatever reason and that almost certainly will continue. Combine that with the warm waters of Indonesia where the MJO will likely screw up any EPO help and you have a recipe for disaster. I hope I'm wrong as my pessimism has hit all time highs the last 5 years or so for winter, but odds are I'm correct.
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Probably no football AND no snow for 20-21. Is there a cliff diving icon on here anywhere?
 
Last moderate niña (2011-12) gave us the worst winter I can remember with a total of a trace of snow. But in the one before that (95-96) we got 21.7 inches so who knows
 
GaWx said:
Read it and weep (unless you prefer a mild and dry winter): 3.4 is now down to -1.7C, implying a very strong La Nina this winter.
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What I find interesting is that warm blob south of AK, in some ways resembles 2017 other than the warm waters off cali/most of the west coast, I mean many things match here 966A8DFA-0E44-4328-BF9E-EB1BB0952D4E.pngA21917C2-A16E-4BE3-97A1-4E2DAD408A30.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
What I find interesting is that warm blob south of AK, in some ways resembles 2017 other than the warm waters off cali/most of the west coast, I mean many things match here View attachment 51551View attachment 51549
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Honestly I haven't seen that blob do anything lately since it became a topic of conversation back in 13-14. Thats an ugly La Nina. No way to sugarcoat that. A -NAO is all that can save this winter imo.
 
Rain Cold said:
I hope we get the strongest Nina ever and get plenty of cold and snowy periods which confound the conventional wisdom of La Ninas.
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Well, all the Nino's were supposed to be cooler than normal and we torched. It would be only fitting for a strong Nina winter to be cold. I say bring on the North Atlantic blocking.
 
Rain Cold said:
I hope we get the strongest Nina ever and get plenty of cold and snowy periods which confound the conventional wisdom of La Ninas.
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While we can see a Nino completely torch and not follow wisdom I would say this is much harder to overcome. I saw some knowledgeable guys on Americanwx in the Mid Atlantic forum stating that every single moderate to strong Nina that turned out to be decent had NAO help. Not most but every single one. 10-11 being the last one. We aren't the Mid Atlantic obviously but whats bad for them surely isn't good for us. I have no idea why the NAO has remained so stubborn during winter lately, but thats probably not changing this year. Just hoping to get some occasional EPO help and maybe a window or two to snow during an overall torch.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
While we can see a Nino completely torch and not follow wisdom I would say this is much harder to overcome. I saw some knowledgeable guys on Americanwx in the Mid Atlantic forum stating that every single moderate to strong Nina that turned out to be decent had NAO help. Not most but every single one. 10-11 being the last one. We aren't the Mid Atlantic obviously but whats bad for them surely isn't good for us. I have no idea why the NAO has remained so stubborn during winter lately, but thats probably not changing this year. Just hoping to get some occasional EPO help and maybe a window or two to snow during an overall torch.
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1988-89 had the opposite of nao help and it ended up just fine here, we had a few big storms in February in fact
 
GaWx said:
Read it and weep (unless you prefer a mild and dry winter): 3.4 is now down to -1.7C, implying a very strong La Nina this winter.
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Larry, I'm not as good as you with weather patterns, but IF that warm water stays on west coast and ne Pacific, I believe this winter will be alot more interesting than one would think in typical laniña. Just my opinion. We still a long ways to go.
 
Mr. Golf said:
Larry, I'm not as good as you with weather patterns, but IF that warm water stays on west coast and ne Pacific, I believe this winter will be alot more interesting than one would think in typical laniña. Just my opinion. We still a long ways to go.
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I'm not Larry, but forecasters are saying Nina suppose to weaken in the middle of winter. There are a few things I cant explain that effects our winter ahead with of couple of moving parts that can easily put us more into a cold pattern this winter.
 
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