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Pattern ENSO Updates (2 Viewers)

GaWx

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#2
A Nino following a weak Niña would be quite promising per history. The only warm one of the last 135+ years following a weak Niña that was warm in the SE US was 1951-2 though even it had a major winter storm for much of the upper SE.
 

GaWx

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#8
The weekly SST anomalies rose rather substantially in all 4 regions, including a rise of 0.5 C in 3.4. That is the largest weekly rise there in 3 years and is encouraging to me because it is an indication that El Niño will likely be here for next winter. If we get El Niño, I'd feel quite good about next winter as I've stated several times based on the history of El Niño following a weak La Niña.
 

GaWx

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#9
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GaWx

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#10
Nino 1+2 cooled a lot as it went down to its lowest in 3 months, +0.9. The other 3 regions were unchanged.
 

GaWx

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#13
Of course he is already. And of course it is a cool one for the NE.
Unfortunately for JB, he has been predicting cool to cold winters in much of the E US most of the time since I started following his winter forecasts in 2001, and he has, as a result, verified poorly in most of the warm winters. I'd love to see him predict an outright warm winter for the bulk of the E US (something I can't recall him doing even once....I mean widespread anomalies of, say, 3+) for a change. However, he has already hinted that that won't occur at least until
after the upcoming ~2020-1 deep solar minimum.

About 4 years ago he predicted that 3 of the subsequent 5 winters would be warm. However, as these winters approached and it was time for his annual forecasts, he backed off this idea for the most part. That's too bad. Obviously, he's going to predict cold for 2017-8.

Despite his cold forecasts often verifying poorly, I may end up agreeing with him for 2017-8 as I still think there's a good chance of a cold winter for the SE US should there actually be a Nino to form later this year.

Edit: To be fair to JB, I've seen very few winter forecasts with widespread warmth from non-pros since 2001 and not all that many from pros although I know the pros at MDA wx as well as at the NWS have gone warm a number of times. MDA would, as a result, have credibility if they were to predict cold.
 
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pcbjr

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#14
Unfortunately for JB, he has been predicting cool to cold winters in much of the E US most of the time since I started following his winter forecasts in 2001, and he has, as a result, verified poorly in most of the warm winters. I'd love to see him predict an outright warm winter for the bulk of the E US (something I can't recall him doing even once....I mean widespread anomalies of, say, 3+) for a change. However, he has already hinted that that won't occur at least until
after the upcoming ~2020-1 deep solar minimum.

About 4 years ago he predicted that 3 of the subsequent 5 winters would be warm. However, as these winters approached and it was time for his annual forecasts, he backed off this idea for the most part. That's too bad. Obviously, he's going to predict cold for 2017-8.

Despite his cold forecasts often verifying poorly, I may end up agreeing with him for 2017-8 as I still think there's a good chance of a cold winter for the SE US should there actually be a Nino to form later this year.

Edit: To be fair to JB, I've seen very few winter forecasts with widespread warmth from non-pros since 2001 and not all that many from pros although I know the pros at MDA wx as well as at the NWS have gone warm a number of times. MDA would, as a result, have credibility if they were to predict cold.
L - Very well written. ;)
Phil
 
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#15
The weekly SST anomalies rose rather substantially in all 4 regions, including a rise of 0.5 C in 3.4. That is the largest weekly rise there in 3 years and is encouraging to me because it is an indication that El Niño will likely be here for next winter. If we get El Niño, I'd feel quite good about next winter as I've stated several times based on the history of El Niño following a weak La Niña.
Pardon my ignorance but what would be the result of this?
 

GaWx

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#16
Pardon my ignorance but what would be the result of this?
A Nino following a weak Niña would be quite promising per history for a colder than normal winter in the SE US. The only El Nino winter during the last 135+ years following a weak Niña that was warm in the SE US was 1951-2 though even it had a major winter storm for much of the upper SE. There have been ten El Nino winters following weak La Nina winters since the late 1860's per the Webber tables. So, 90% were colder than normal.
 
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#17
A Nino following a weak Niña would be quite promising per history for a colder than normal winter in the SE US. The only El Nino winter during the last 135+ years following a weak Niña that was warm in the SE US was 1951-2 though even it had a major winter storm for much of the upper SE. There have been ten El Nino winters following weak La Nina winters since the late 1860's per the Webber tables. So, 90% were colder than normal.
Ok, thanks for the reply. I for one would love to have a nice cold winter, perhaps even with snow. Considering how it was this year that would be very welcome.
 

pcbjr

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#18
A Nino following a weak Niña would be quite promising per history for a colder than normal winter in the SE US. The only El Nino winter during the last 135+ years following a weak Niña that was warm in the SE US was 1951-2 though even it had a major winter storm for much of the upper SE. There have been ten El Nino winters following weak La Nina winters since the late 1860's per the Webber tables. So, 90% were colder than normal.
Saw something yesterday from Ryan M and posted it here with a question. Basically, is this true even if it is a Modoki? Haven't been able to find a whole lot on Modoki Ninas, but what I have found suggests that they are more variable and "susceptible" to other factors than a "true" Nina. But I don't know enough about Modoki - :confused: ... hint, hint, Larry ...
 
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GaWx

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#19
Saw something yesterday from Ryan M and posted it here with a question. Basically, is this true even if it is a Modoki? Haven't been able to find a whole lot on Modoki Ninas, but what I have found suggests that they are more variable and "susceptible" to other factors than a "true" Nina. But I don't know enough about Modoki - :confused: ... hint, hint, Larry ...
My answer is "yes". (I think you meant Modoki "Nino" not "Nina".) In looking at the 10, I didn't distinguish Modoki from non-Modoki and honestly don't know how to categorize all 10. So, 9 of the 10 of whatever kind of El Nino that followed a weak Nina were colder than normal in the SE US and even included 3 of the 10 coldest on record at KATL. Actually, a Modoki would give it a better chance to be cold as that normally excludes the superstrong ones. The weaker El Ninos have been the coldest in the SE of any ENSO on average. So, the "other factors" tend to be favorable for SE cold during weaker El Nino (whether or not following a weak Nina). Then again, 1951-2 was a weaker Nino that followed a weak Nnia and was warm. So, you never know as those other factors during weak Ninos sometimes still end up being negative for cold!
 
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#22
I'm honestly baffled why legitimate meteorologists/researchers still try to give the CFSv2 any credence regarding ENSO. This model has a notorious NINO bias (some of which stems from it's +SSTA bias in the southeastern Pacific), and like most climate models a profound "rebound"/sinusoidal bias, in which integrated ENSO behavior is more regular than reality. Unfortunately, it appears this model is being initialized w/ potentially erroneous CDAS1 data and is already ~0.2-0.3C above Reynolds OISSTv2, but in spite of this its newest forecast (blue) is appreciably less enthusiastic about a +ENSO event later this year. While another El Nino is not dynamically impossible, as suggested by the historical 150+ year modern ENSO and ~60 year QBO record, in the 2nd year immediately following the culmination of a strong-super NINO event, and under WQBO regime in the midst of neutral-negative ENSO, another cold La Nada-weak La Nina event is most likely for 2017-18...

C-AsnbIXYAAO_my.jpg
 

pcbjr

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#23
I'm honestly baffled why legitimate meteorologists/researchers still try to give the CFSv2 any credence regarding ENSO. This model has a notorious NINO bias (some of which stems from it's +SSTA bias in the southeastern Pacific), and like most climate models a profound "rebound"/sinusoidal bias, in which integrated ENSO behavior is more regular than reality. Unfortunately, it appears this model is being initialized w/ potentially erroneous CDAS1 data and is already ~0.2-0.3C above Reynolds OISSTv2, but in spite of this its newest forecast (blue) is appreciably less enthusiastic about a +ENSO event later this year. While another El Nino is not dynamically impossible, as suggested by the historical 150+ year modern ENSO and ~60 year QBO record, in the 2nd year immediately following the culmination of a strong-super NINO event, and under WQBO regime in the midst of neutral-negative ENSO, another cold La Nada-weak La Nina event is most likely for 2017-18...

View attachment 528
No soup for us?

 

GaWx

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#25
Yeah, unfortunately, Webber is almost always on top of things and he's just being an objective messenger based on past patterns. Looking at his own tables, I see four prior super-Nino winters (peak in 3.4 of +2+) and all 4 had a weak to moderate Nina two winters later. :(

However, some good news for those hoping we don't have a repeat is that the sample size is small. Also, and more importantly imo, we're currently and have been for the last month or so in neutral positive territory. All 4 of the previous post super-Nino cases were in anywhere from neutral negative to weak La Nina territory at this point. If we were to add 1972-3, which was just below super-Nino strength, it too was in weak La Nina territory at this point (it went on to weak La Nina the subsequent winter). So, maybe this means the outcome will be different for 2017-8?? Also, the next strongest after 1972-3 was 1902-3. It did have a weak El Nino follow it two winters later in 1904-5. By the way, that was one heck of a SE winter! At this point, it was actually still in neutral negative territory.

I maintain that if we can get El Nino (even a weak one, which I'd prefer over a strong one) for 2017-8, the odds of a cold 2017-8 would be much higher than normal based on 9 of 10 of El Ninos following weak La Ninas being cold. Keep hope alive for El Nino but also stay grounded in reality as ENSO evolves over the next few (very crucial) months.
 

pcbjr

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#26
Yeah, unfortunately, Webber is almost always on top of things and he's just being an objective messenger based on past patterns. Looking at his own tables, I see four super-Nino winters (peak in 3.4 of +2+) and all 4 had a weak to moderate Nina two winters later. :(

However, some good news for those hoping we don't have a repeat is that the sample size is small. Also, and more importantly imo, we're currently and have been for the last month or so in neutral positive territory. All 4 of the previous post super-Nino cases were in anywhere from neutral negative to weak La Nina territory at this point. If we were to add 1972-3, which was just below super-Nino strength, it too was in weak La Nina territory at this point (it went on to weak La Nina the subsequent winter). So, maybe this means the outcome will be different for 2017-8?? Also, the next strongest after 1972-3 was 1902-3. It did have a weak El Nino follow it two winters later in 1904-5. By the way, that was one heck of a SE winter! At this point, it was actually still in neutral negative territory.

I maintain that if we can get El Nino (even a weak one, which I'd prefer over a strong one) for 2017-8, the odds of a cold 2017-8 would be much higher than normal based on 9 of 10 of El Ninos following weak La Ninas being cold. Keep hope alive for El Nino but also stay grounded in reality as ENSO evolves over the next few (very crucial) months.
I don't question or ever doubt Webb (or you) - just making an observation (written between the lines so to say) with some humor tossed in, as it seems we need some about now ... :p
 

GaWx

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#27
The Niño 3.4 is down to 0.2 C.
Nino 3.4 warmer back up 0.3 to +0.5C. This is the warmest 3.4 weekly since the decline of the super-Nino almost a year ago. Nino 4 warmed to its warmest in 9 months. Nino 1+2 warmed back up 0.5 to +1.1 after 4 straight weeks of cooling. Region 2 cooled slightly to +0.6.

To sum it up, maybe soup for us next winter after all? ;) We'll see. The next three months or so will be crucial.
 

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#28
http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/quick_look_composite_apr17-3.pdf

This is the April 20th update.

See the model plumes on the lower right side. Average forecast peak for 3.4 from dynamic models is +1.1, with the Euro, Australian, and French models right on top of the path of the average as far out as each goes. Only two of the 18 dynamic models clearly show it staying down in the neutral area: Scripps and LDEO. Some others: CMC +1.5; GFDL's +1.6 and +2.1; Korean +0.8; NASA +1.3 to +1.4; CFSv2 +1.0 and still rising; Saudi +1.9.

The soup is being prepared for possible consumption by southeasterners. Rumor has it that if all of the ingredients come together just right that it will be delicious. The most important ingredient to give the best shot at deliciousness is El Nino. The next 2-3 months of simmering will be quite crucial to a potential El Nino. Throw in a nice shot of -AO/-NAO blocking later on into the recipe as it gets close to being ready and the soup would be hard to beat.
 
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pcbjr

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#29
http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/quick_look_composite_apr17-3.pdf

This is the April 20th update.

See the model plumes on the lower right side. Average forecast peak for 3.4 from dynamic models is +1.1, with the Euro, Australian, and French models right on top of the path of the average as far out as each goes. Only two of the 18 dynamic models clearly show it staying down in the neutral area: Scripps and LDEO. Some others: CMC +1.5; GFDL's +1.6 and +2.1; Korean +0.8; NASA +1.3 to +1.4; CFSv2 +1.0 and still rising; Saudi +1.9.

The soup is being prepared for possible consumption by southeasterners. Rumor has it that if all of the ingredients come together just right that it will be delicious. The most important ingredient to give the best shot at deliciousness is El Nino. The next 2-3 months of simmering will be quite crucial.
Soup for you!
 

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