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Pattern ENSO Updates

The latest IRI statistical-dynamical model consensus is not enthused about the prospects of an El Nino and a majority of the members show warm ENSO neutral going into next winter. It's worth mentioning here that short-medium range model skill increases as we move away from the spring predictability barrier...
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Webberweather53 said:
The latest IRI statistical-dynamical model consensus is not enthused about the prospects of an El Nino and a majority of the members show warm ENSO neutral going into next winter. It's worth mentioning here that short-medium range model skill increases as we move away from the spring predictability barrier...
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Fabulous analysis/discussion, Webb!
 
pcbjr said:
Can you imagine what it would be like if we all got together after a long day and got ... well ... a few too many ... LOL
I would need a dictionary and a laptop to keep up ... :D
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HAHA!


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Webberweather53 said:
The latest IRI statistical-dynamical model consensus is not enthused about the prospects of an El Nino and a majority of the members show warm ENSO neutral going into next winter. It's worth mentioning here that short-medium range model skill increases as we move away from the spring predictability barrier...
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Figures , there goes my west based Nino. I'll take a neutral Nino at this point . Damn , I'm settling in June #desperateforwinter


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Webberweather53 said:
If you use years within about 0.5 sigma of this upcoming June (-9.0 +/- 5.5), to attain a large enough of a sample size to glean any statistical significance wrt SOI initialization while maintaining years w/ similar SOI behavior, you're left w/ 41 Junes, of those only 17 observed an El Nino in the subsequent winter, or approximately 40% as I mentioned earlier...
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I feel that using 9 +/- 3 as I've done provides a good balance of a large enough sample size for good credibility (25) and still similar enough SOI's. I don't feel comfortable in extending the limits to 14.5 and 3.5.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The latest IRI statistical-dynamical model consensus is not enthused about the prospects of an El Nino and a majority of the members show warm ENSO neutral going into next winter. It's worth mentioning here that short-medium range model skill increases as we move away from the spring predictability barrier...
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Yeah, I'm aware of the cooler June model plume. One thing I'd like to note is that several of these models that had an upcoming -ENSO
had a rather sharp cooldown from +0.5 in May to +0.2 in June. That obviously isn't happening. If anything, June is looking to end up about 0.1C warmer than May or near +0.6. Because of this, I'm leaning to the July plume average being warmer than this June plume.
 
Storm5 said:
Figures , there goes my west based Nino. I'll take a neutral Nino at this point . Damn , I'm settling in June #desperateforwinter


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A weak NINO is definitely more than in play atm given just how close we already are to the threshold and have been of late but w/o appreciable intensification, glwt.
GaWx said:
I feel that using 9 +/- 3 as I've done provides a good balance of a large enough sample size for good credibility (25) and still similar enough SOI's. I don't feel comfortable in extending the limits to 14.5 and 3.5.
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The SOI is incredibly noisy and exhibits the weakest correlations w/ all other ENSO indices across the board because a large proportion of its power lies outside the ENSO spectrum. Utilizing a tri-monthly or pentad averaged filter is strongly advised when using the SOI for real-time ENSO monitoring. The reason for utilizing 0.5 sigma thresholds has to do w/ the fact that approximately 30-35% of the data will fall within this range (when using a normally distributed bell curve), and this is relatively close to the percentile MEI definitions, which usually denote El Nino and La Nina conditions for the top and bottom 30th percentiles of available data for a given month or season. See Wolter and Timlin (2011) & Wolter's MEI page for more information....
 
GaWx said:
Yeah, I'm aware of the cooler June model plume. One thing I'd like to note is that several of these models that had an upcoming -ENSO
had a rather sharp cooldown from +0.5 in May to +0.2 in June. That obviously isn't happening. If anything, June is looking to end up about 0.1C warmer than May or near +0.6. Because of this, I'm leaning to the July plume average being warmer than this June plume.
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Only a few spurious outliers (such as the GFDL CM 2.1) show this scenario, for the most part the general consensus statistical-dynamical models are pretty consistent on steady state ENSO conditions for the foreseeable future, they may be a tad warmer near initialization in July but many of these models are also heavily state dependent, and intraseasonal noise due to the MJO or oceanic KWs can lead to overcorrections in their forecasts...
 
Larry and Eric, I just want thank you for your robust debate over the ENSO. This debate is a true winner for all who want to learn more about the ENSO.


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It appears JB has put out a raging weatherbull video on some of his thoughts on this upcoming weather. No surprises. He is still calling for a Modoki El Niño to develop.


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whatalife said:
It appears JB has put out a raging weatherbull video on some of his thoughts on this upcoming weather. No surprises. He is still calling for a Modoki El Niño to develop.


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Let's hope our buddy Eric does not find it. BUT if he wants to see it I'll be happy to give him my wxbell login. The twitter lesson would be epic!!!!


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Storm5 said:
Let's hope our buddy Eric does not find it. BUT if he wants to see it I'll be happy to give him my wxbell login. The twitter lesson would be epic!!!!


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HAHA!


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JB is up early this morning
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With the current 3.4 SST anomaly appearing to hang around +0.7 C, it wouldn't at all be that difficult to end up with a weak Modoki Niño this fall/winter. So, imo, JB isn't hyping for a change. If we really do end up with a weak Modoki Niño and assume that the +PDO persists through the winter, the upcoming SE winter quite realistically could be cold and maybe even memorable. Just add to those two things a solid -NAO, the biggest challenge, and the nontrivial chance for memorable based on the trifecta of weak Niño, +PDO, and -NAO would be there. This would set up the chance for the greatest cold turnaround from one winter to the next in the SE US since at least the late 1800s. All speculation right now but not a far fetched possibility as of now.
 
GaWx said:
With the current 3.4 SST anomaly appearing to hang around +0.7 C, it wouldn't at all be that difficult to end up with a weak Modoki Niño this fall/winter. So, imo, JB isn't hyping for a change. If we really do end up with a weak Modoki Niño and assume that the +PDO persists through the winter, the upcoming SE winter quite realistically could be cold and maybe even memorable. Just add to those two things a solid -NAO, the biggest challenge, and the nontrivial chance for memorable based on the trifecta of weak Niño, +PDO, and -NAO would be there. This would set up the chance for the greatest cold turnaround from one winter to the next in the SE US since at least the late 1800s. All speculation right now but not a far fetched possibility as of now.
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Sounds nice if we can get one. Every time a winter is bad, it only makes it more likely to have a good one I feel.
 
The 0Z GFS/Euro are in agreement that high Darwin SLPs will return around 7/9 and persist for awhile. However, there is disagreement regarding Tahiti. The GFS has it fairly unremarkable while the Euro has it much lower and is implying a strongly -SOI period starting near 7/9-10. The GFS seems to have had a high bias on Tahiti SLPs recently. So, I'm leaning to the Euro regarding Tahiti as of now. That means I'm leaning toward a solid -SOI period for at least several days starting around 7/9-10. Meanwhile, July has started off with 2 days of -SOI, which will shortly reverse as Tahiti goes much higher in advance of that anticipated strongly -SOI period. Tahiti dailies could reach as high as 1016.5-1017 for a couple of days.

** Edit for this addition: Looking at today's 5 day averaged 3.4 TAO based SST anomaly map, the far eastern 3.4 continues to slowly cool but this is compensated by areas further west. The area that is warmer than +1.0 continues to grow and is now including a small area north of the equator. The very warmest within this warmer than +1.0 area appears to be approaching +1.25.
 
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GaWx said:
The 0Z GFS/Euro are in agreement that high Darwin SLPs will return around 7/9 and persist for awhile. However, there is disagreement regarding Tahiti. The GFS has it fairly unremarkable while the Euro has it much lower and is implying a strongly -SOI period starting near 7/9-10. The GFS seems to have had a high bias on Tahiti SLPs recently. So, I'm leaning to the Euro regarding Tahiti as of now. That means I'm leaning toward a solid -SOI period for at least several days starting around 7/9-10. Meanwhile, July has started off with 2 days of -SOI, which will shortly reverse as Tahiti goes much higher in advance of that anticipated strongly -SOI period. Tahiti dailies could reach as high as 1016.5-1017 for a couple of days.
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What do this means for us here in South Carolina, and Georgia for weather??
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
What do this means for us here in South Carolina, and Georgia for weather??
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Based on what others have written, I believe that a strongly -SOI period is mildly correlated with near to below normal temperatures in summer in the SE US soon afterward though I need to research that to confirm for myself. Regardless, the short term SE weather varies quite a bit with regard to the SOI. The main reason I'm posting about this is to try to get a better handle on the most likely direction for ENSO during the next few months, which could easily have larger implications for winter than summer here in the SE. There is a good correlation between the multimonth SOI in summer and the subsequent fall/winter ENSO. A persistent -SOI tends to favor El Niño. An El Niño this winter would give the SE a better chance at a cold 2017-8 winter imo.
 
Today's weekly release, which is actually for the average covering last week, has Niño 3.4 still at +0.7. Also, the subsurface continues to steadily warm back up, which has been ongoing for much of June. Looking at today's 5 day averaged TAO map (for the 5 days ending yesterday) for SST anomalies, it appears to be approaching +0.75 in Niño 3.4. However, the current satellite based graph from Cowan fwiw shows it has cooled 0.1 from yesterday to only +0.439. But that has been 0.1 to 0.2 cooler than the weeklies in recent weeks for whatever reason. Regardless, perhaps that means 3.4 really has cooled since yesterday.

Overall, the combo of recent SOIs, SST anomalies, and recent subsurface warming continues to suggest to me a good chance that a weak Modoki El Niño is in the cards. The July SOI will be rather telling. If it comes in solidly negative like June, that would only raise that chance further.

The July 1 monthly model plume for Niño 3.4 will be interesting. June's overall SST anomaly looks like it was near +0.6. Some of the June 1 runs for June were as cool as +0.2. Even the Euro mean was only near +0.4 for June and near +0.3 for July. I'm still expecting at least some warmer adjustment in the July 1 plume.
 
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Not sure if this should go in Banter or here but what type of winter weather is usually seen across the Southeast in Modoki El Niño patterns?
 
NWMSGuy said:
Not sure if this should go in Banter or here but what type of winter weather is usually seen across the Southeast in Modoki El Niño patterns?
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A Modoki El Niño pattern is but one egg in the basket; all other things being equal one could statistically expect a generally BN winter. Said with all sorts of caveats ... o_O
 
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pcbjr said:
A Modoki El Niño pattern is but one egg in the basket; all other things being equal one could statistically expect a generally BN winter. Said with all sorts of caveats ... o_O
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Well said. One thing I'll add is that it is a rather important egg. ENSO in general is rather an important egg. The OVERALL SE US warmth during La Niña winters averaged out (i.e., there is still considerable variation that depends on other factors as Phil said) vs the OVERALL SE US coolness during El Niño winters averaged out is not debatable. All one has to do to know this is to look at past winters. Looking at El Niño winters specifically, the coldest SE US ones have tended to be associated with weaker ones (weak to low end moderate Niño
winters and not necessarily Modoki). Actually, a significant % of the coldest SE US winters since the late 1800s have occurred during weak to low end moderate El Niño episodes (not necessarily Modoki). There has been no other ENSO category, including strong El Niño, that has averaged nearly as cold. The warmest category by a good margin has been moderate to strong La Niña.

Those weak to low end moderate Niño winters that have followed weak La Niña winters may have a tendency to be the coldest in the SE US on average but the statistical significance when reducing the sample size to only include these is obviously lower. Regardless, 1951-2 is a gross exception to that tendency. Note that the PDO was strongly negative then. Weak to moderate Niño winters that have been cold have much more often been when there was a +PDO vs a -PDO.
 
One thing to also keep in mind vs historical tendencies is that the long-term averages are generally sliding upwards and if another El Nino develops this year, global temperatures will likely increase yet again which tilts odds somewhat back in favor of a warmer winter, and as is the long term averages are already becoming very marginal at best for wintry weather in the SE US...
 
Webberweather53 said:
One thing to also keep in mind vs historical tendencies is that the long-term averages are generally sliding upwards and if another El Nino develops this year, global temperatures will likely increase yet again which tilts odds somewhat back in favor of a warmer winter, and as is the long term averages are already becoming very marginal at best for wintry weather in the SE US...
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I agree that another El Niño would increase the odds of short term GLOBAL warming. My understanding is that that is and likely has always been the case whenever there is El Niño with the degree of warming influence correlated with strength of El Niño. However, regarding SE winter temperatures in particular, just having El Niño (especially a weaker one) would imo not at all increase the odds of warmth. To the contrary, I firmly believe that (all other things being equal) that having El Niño this winter would increase the odds of cold in the SE this winter even in the background of what would likely be even warmer global temperatures. Admittedly, a winter several decades ago with a similar strength El Niño would likely have been colder due to a colder globe.
 
Webberweather53 said:
One thing to also keep in mind vs historical tendencies is that the long-term averages are generally sliding upwards and if another El Nino develops this year, global temperatures will likely increase yet again which tilts odds somewhat back in favor of a warmer winter, and as is the long term averages are already becoming very marginal at best for wintry weather in the SE US...
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Thanks for the positivity there Webber . JB you aren't (in positive way).


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whatalife said:
Thanks for the positivity there Webber . JB you aren't (in positive way).


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IMHO, Webb and Larry are both doing a superlative bang-up job, educating, stating a perspective, and all the while being true gentlemen about their somewhat divergent look(s) at things. Just MHO, and the discussion is most appreciated ... ;):):cool::p:D
 
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whatalife said:
Thanks for the positivity there Webber . JB you aren't (in positive way).
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Yes, but in fairness to the strongly E US cold and snow biased JB, whom I've criticized on numerous occasions due to this strong bias, even he acknowledges the temporary global warming impact of El Niño.
 
I've detected a recent high bias for BOTH Darwin and Tahiti SLP on the GFS in trying to predict the SOI fwiw. So, they will wash out to some extent against each other. Which of the two locations has a stronger high bias is a tough call. The GFS overall suggests a relatively neutral SOI over the next 2 weeks when averaging all of the days with both locations likely having a higher than average SLP overall during the period. So, if July overall is to have anywhere near as strong a -SOI as June, things will need to either turn in the modeling for the next two weeks, my read on the GFS needs to be +SOI biased, or the period just afterward would need to be strongly -SOI.
Today is the first +SOI day in 8 days.
 
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GaWx said:
I've detected a recent high bias for BOTH Darwin and Tahiti SLP on the GFS in trying to predict the SOI fwiw. So, they will wash out to some extent against each other. Which of the two locations has a stronger high bias is a tough call. The GFS overall suggests a relatively neutral SOI over the next 2 weeks when averaging all of the days with both locations likely having a higher than average SLP overall during the period. So, if July overall is to have anywhere near as strong a -SOI as June, things will need to either turn in the modeling for the next two weeks, my read on the GFS needs to be +SOI biased, or the period just afterward would need to be strongly -SOI.
Today is the first +SOI day in 8 days.
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Well that interesting...


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GaWx said:
I agree that another El Niño would increase the odds of short term GLOBAL warming. My understanding is that that is and likely has always been the case whenever there is El Niño with the degree of warming influence correlated with strength of El Niño. However, regarding SE winter temperatures in particular, just having El Niño (especially a weaker one) would imo not at all increase the odds of warmth. To the contrary, I firmly believe that (all other things being equal) that having El Niño this winter would increase the odds of cold in the SE this winter even in the background of what would likely be even warmer global temperatures. Admittedly, a winter several decades ago with a similar strength El Niño would likely have been colder due to a colder globe.
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I don't disagree at all with this, yes purely looking at ENSO alone chances increase for colder weather in the SE US given a central Pacific NINO (whose frequency has increased in recent decades, yet the number of cold winters have decreased) and an easterly QBO (if it manages to hold) also increases the amount of WAF onto the polar vortex by confining RW deposition into the winter hemisphere, but even the current eQBO is still highly unstable atm as the easterly descent is unusually rapid...
 
Webberweather53 said:
I don't disagree at all with this, yes purely looking at ENSO alone chances increase for colder weather in the SE US given a central Pacific NINO (whose frequency has increased in recent decades, yet the number of cold winters have decreased) and an easterly QBO (if it manages to hold) also increases the amount of WAF onto the polar vortex by confining RW deposition into the winter hemisphere, but even the current eQBO is still highly unstable atm as the easterly descent is unusually rapid...
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However with AGW not only does the overall climate background warm, but the placement of the mid-latitude standing rossby wave train induced by the El Nino changes as the meridional breadth of the Hadley Cell increases (i.e. Hadley Cell expansion), thereby changing the location, amplitude, and behavior of downstream rossby wave dispersion over North America and thus sensible weather even in the SE US.
 
So we have arguments for possible cold El Niño w/possibly snow vs a possible warmer El Niño w/no snow. IF El Niño shows up. So what's new in the SE.


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whatalife said:
So we have arguments for possible cold El Niño w/possibly snow vs a possible warmer El Niño w/no snow. IF El Niño shows up. So what's new in the SE.


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All I'm really saying here is we need to proceed with more caution than immediately try to jump to conclusions or incessantly emphasize/talk about a cold winter in the SE US this year without looking at a host of other parameters. It's amazing what happens when we truly look at "everything" instead of filter for information (even if it's legitimate) that confirms our own personal biases towards cold and snow...
 
Webberweather53 said:
All I'm really saying here is we need to proceed with more caution than immediately try to jump to conclusions or incessantly emphasize/talk about a cold winter in the SE US this year without looking at a host of other parameters. It's amazing what happens when we truly look at "everything" instead of filter for information (even if it's legitimate) that confirms our own personal biases towards cold and snow...
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You are 100% right, succinct, and saying it better than I ever could (like with my perhaps puerile egg-in-the-basket analogy earlier today).
 
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Webberweather53 said:
All I'm really saying here is we need to proceed with more caution than immediately try to jump to conclusions or incessantly emphasize/talk about a cold winter in the SE US this year without looking at a host of other parameters. It's amazing what happens when we truly look at "everything" instead of filter for information (even if it's legitimate) that confirms our own personal biases towards cold and snow...
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Nicely put.


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