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Pattern ENSO Updates

I'll be the first to say it...... If 3.4 doesn't warm up, or at least stay the same, we're doomed.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Lol saying we are doomed off of one factor is completely foolish. Every situation is different and I honestly can't see this winter being worse than last.
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I actually think were headed in the right direction. Cold is coming.
 
Amazing how water temps determines if our winter sucks or not. Dont make sense, but o well
 
ForsythSnow said:
Lol saying we are doomed off of one factor is completely foolish. Every situation is different and I honestly can't see this winter being worse than last.
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It is near a statistical certainty that this winter won't be as warm in the SE as the last one, which was among the warmest 3 for many locations in the SE. That being said, I really hope the La Niña trimonthly Niño 3.4 peak doesn't get to -1.3 or colder. Fortunately, that's still a good ways off. The way these weeklies have worked in the past after two weeks of sharp cooling tells me there's a good chance there will at least be a temporary respite in the weekly cooling soon. In other words, it rarely keeps dropping fast for more than 2-3 weeks in a row.
One thing to keep in mind is that the max cooling from 10/4 to the winter cold peak since 1990 has only been 1.3C. If that were to
hold up in 2017-8, then the coldest the weeklies would go is -1.3C. A coldest of -1.3C for the weeklies would mean a trimonthly that is very likely no colder than -1.1C, which would be a middle grade moderate Niña rather than strong. (My moderate Niña cat starts at -0.9 and ends just before -1.3.) If we can get a cold Nov and a middle grade moderate or weaker Niña, we'd have more than a trivial shot at a cold winter based on history.

Edit: I respect CadWedge a lot. However, I don't think it is nearly that cut and dry. Yes, I'd much rather have a weak to moderate El Niño than anything else. But keep in mind that not even close to all of the cold winters were during weak to moderate El Niño even though they have a good percentage of them. Besides, if we can just get a near normal or even only a slightly warmer than normal winter, that would be a great improvement over the last 2.
 
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ForsythSnow said:
Lol saying we are doomed off of one factor is completely foolish. Every situation is different and I honestly can't see this winter being worse than last.
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I think you misunderstood the context..... I was referring to the statistical probably of a cold winter with more than a weak La-nina in place. As you should be well aware of by now, the colder 3.4 gets, the less likely we are to have a cold winter. So when I say doomed, it means that our cold and snowy chances go way down as a stronger La-nina develops. Hope that helps you understand my post.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
I think you misunderstood the context..... I was referring to the statistical probably of a cold winter with more than a weak La-nina in place. As you should be well aware of by now, the colder 3.4 gets, the less likely we are to have a cold winter. So when I say doomed, it means that our cold and snowy chances go way down as a stronger La-nina develops. Hope that helps you understand my post.
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You have a point, i just think that thats one factore against others. Who knows whats going to happen. One thing for sure models has been pretty strong with the cold, lets hope it continues through winter.
 
FYI, the moderate NINA composite using my ENS ONI index based on rankings is actually colder than the weak NINA or cool ENSO neutral composite...
 
Webberweather53 said:
FYI, the moderate NINA composite using my ENS ONI index based on rankings is actually colder than the weak NINA or cool ENSO neutral composite...
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Regardless, I would rather take my chances going into winter with a Weak Nina vs. Moderate / Strong Nina.
 
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