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Pattern ENSO Updates

GaWx said:
Not only did 3.4 plunge from +0.4 to 0.0 last week per today's weekly release, but more significantly to me the upper ocean heat content plunged nearly 0.5 from +0.3 down almost to -0.2! I've decided to already go with El Niño "cancel" after thinking just a month ago that El Niño had a "very good" chance. As you can read above, I didn't think I was going to go all of the way to "cancel" as of just 15 days ago. It isn't just that 3.4 is down to 0.0, but also the combination of a 1015.2 July SLP at Tahiti and the upper OHC plunging to negative.

So, this is an absolute epic fail on my part. This looks similar to 1993 more than anything since 1950 and looks even more like Eric's 1932 analog as of this point. Though even Eric said as late as late June that he couldn't then eliminate a weak Niño since 3.4 was at that time already bordering on levels that could have attained a weak Niño were it to remain near there for several months (the weeklies got to as high as +0.7 for consecutive weeks in late June), he really obliterated me on this as he repeatedly said he thought no El Niño with ample backing for his reasoning vs my "very good chance" for El Niño as of just a month ago. There is minor consolation for me in getting very close to the full July SOI by predicting near +7 as per the quoted post from July 16th. It ended up at +6.51. But that is just minor consolation for this epic failure of mine in going "very good" chance for El Niño.
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You're candor (as Phil has pointed out before) is amazingly refreshing! Larry you're research and contribution is great, we were all hoping for your analog to come to fruition but that's weather.... I love reading your post, keep it up!!
 
Good ole JB
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To JB's credit and I do mean this sincerely, he is also being candid about the El Nino chances going bye bye. The JB of old tended to stubbornly hold onto his forecast ideas in the face of indicators going the other way and he may have even downplayed this major cooldown in Nino 3.4. However, assuming he really is saying El Nino cancel, will he warm his winter forecast for much of the E US, especially mid-Atlantic southward (especially SE) where El Nino's, especially weak ones, average chilly? I'm skeptical he will do so due to his strong cold bias for winter in the E US. He may use some other reason like latching onto the approaching deep solar minimum. I'm not saying this winter can't still be cold in the SE by the way though I feel its chances have gone down quite a bit from where I had thought they were due to the Nino cancel.
 
Geat job Larry. Idk i just hope we still can cash in on winterstorms and some cold spells regardless of what the outcome be. How many times have we called for a cold/snowy winter and failed, how many times we called for an warm/mild winter and failed and end up being the opposite. The point of this is no one really knows whats going to happen. I still think we will have a better winter than last 2 years. It really gets to me when ppl give up on winter just because we may not have a Nino.
 
pcbjr said:
IMHO it is far too early to start winter forecasting ... give it 7 or 8 weeks to begin to see where the stars align ... just my humble opinion ... :confused:
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Your right, and im thankful for the great ppl on here for giving us the up to date info analysis. Even if we end up with Neutral or Nina we still have pretty good chances as in cold and storms.
 
accu35 said:
Geat job Larry. Idk i just hope we still can cash in on winterstorms and some cold spells regardless of what the outcome be. How many times have we called for a cold/snowy winter and failed, how many times we called for an warm/mild winter and failed and end up being the opposite. The point of this is no one really knows whats going to happen. I still think we will have a better winter than last 2 years. It really gets to me when ppl give up on winter just because we may not have a Nino.
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Nino years have never seemed to work out for big storms around here. I would rather take my chances and have less precipitation and a huge storm than warmth in winter like the last Nino winters and the Nino like Nina-neutral. Opposites seem to happen a lot, so let's see lots of warm/ dry forecasts! :p
pcbjr said:
IMHO it is far too early to start winter forecasting ... give it 7 or 8 weeks to begin to see where the stars align ... just my humble opinion ... :confused:
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I would say give it to then as well. Until then, hope it stays cool! I think we will heat up again in September, then drop off for late fall.
 
accu35 said:
Geat job Larry. Idk i just hope we still can cash in on winterstorms and some cold spells regardless of what the outcome be. How many times have we called for a cold/snowy winter and failed, how many times we called for an warm/mild winter and failed and end up being the opposite. The point of this is no one really knows whats going to happen. I still think we will have a better winter than last 2 years. It really gets to me when ppl give up on winter just because we may not have a Nino.
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Another thing to keep in mind is the last 2 winters were very warm, yet parts of the southeast were only a warm nose away from cashing in both seasons.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Nino years have never seemed to work out for big storms around here. I would rather take my chances and have less precipitation and a huge storm than warmth in winter like the last Nino winters and the Nino like Nina-neutral. Opposites seem to happen a lot, so let's see lots of warm/ dry forecasts! :p

I would say give it to then as well. Until then, hope it stays cool! I think we will heat up again in September, then drop off for late fall.
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IKR.... About every year around Labor Day weekend summer goes on one last hurrah.
 
Storm5 said:
If JB says no nino we should all be jumping with joy. That means we smash record lows and have a 93 redux . Remeber , Reality will AlWAYS be opposite of what JB says

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It'll be the one year he's right...SMH!


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Storm5 said:
If JB says no nino we should all be jumping with joy. That means we smash record lows and have a 93 redux . Remeber , Reality will AlWAYS be opposite of what JB says

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I agree lol, prepare for Glory
 
Amazingly enough, though La Nina looked extremely unlikely and way less likely to me than El Nino as of just 1.5 months ago, I think it has almost reversed with La Nina looking to me to be much more likely than El Nino. This is because El Nino looks just about totally dead now due to the current negative anomalies of OHC/surface coupled with momentum going in the La Nina direction. I'd say that IF it ends up being neutral that cold neutral is favored over warm neutral right now. Neutral is probably most favored right now per model consensus, but I really have to wonder if La Nina's chance is higher than one may think. Here's why:

The July 2017 Tahiti SLP ended up being 1015.4 mb. No July Tahiti SLP of 1015 mb+ since at least 1950 hasn't lead into La Nina and there were 8 of them. When considering that in combination with the recent plunge of SSTs and OHC as well as +SOI still being favored for the forseeable future, I have to wonder if a weak La Nina is coming even though I'm not predicting that. Could it end up being a late oncoming La Nina like 1967-8 or 1984-5? After this really bad "El Nino fail", I think weak La Nina needs to be considered a reasonable possibility even if not as likely as neutral.
 
ForsythSnow said:
How low could that go? Lol all those calls for a Nino are long gone. Drops like that are why analog forecasts issued before October fail.
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accu35 said:
whats this mean? Thanks
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It could feasibly enter moderate territory, as i mentioned on this thread a month or two ago, the transitions between NINO >>> NINA are often faster than NINA >>> NINO due to the greater efficiency of the bjkernes feedback in NINOs and other negative feedbacks that terminate El Ninos (esp strong events)...
 
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