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Pattern ENSO Updates

metwannabe said:
I think I'm picking up what you're dropping down haha. Basically maybe some would say I'm being a Debbie Downer or don't know what I'm talking about, which the latter is quite possible. I'm playing Devil's Advocate or just being a realist but in my humble opinion an El Nino basically says I'm supplying the fuel but the rest of the players need to step up to close the deal.

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Yeah that’s essentially how everyone should treat El Niño winters like this around here, the propensity for storms and esp large ones is so much higher in Ninos but this usually favors areas that already have high snowfall climo.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Here's the same analysis with more than double the amount of samples using pre-1950 ENSO data via my ENS ONI index.
Each red/blue color increment represents a difference of 0.5, 1.0, & > 2 sigma from the available NINO samples.

El Nino winters generally tend to slightly favor the piedmont and mountains if anything, there's some noise in the coastal plain and coastal areas like Wilmington. Charlotte actually averages more snow in strong-super El Ninos than Raleigh does, again hinting at this underlying favorability to the piedmont & mountains. We're clearly headed into a weak-moderate El Nino this year so I could do a similar analysis with even more samples and see if any discernible signal emerges, likely will be a muddled one if anything in the west-central piedmont and mountains.

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Man I completely misspoke, or miss typed, in my original question to this chart. It's been a long day I did not mean averages I meant don't you think some of those snowfall totals for the individual El Nino Winters may be skewed. You know what I'm saying for instance the winter of 1930 - 1931 there's some big totals in there, were there just one or two big dog systems or was it a cold snowy winter overall? I guess my point to all of this is as has been mentioned before El Nino doesn't guarantee a great winter there certainly are a lot of other things that need to lineup for things to work, guess I'd rather just temper my expectations so to minimize the disappointment later haha.

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metwannabe said:
Man I completely misspoke, or miss typed, in my original question to this chart. It's been a long day I did not mean averages I meant don't you think some of those snowfall totals for the individual El Nino Winters may be skewed. You know what I'm saying for instance the winter of 1930 - 1931 there's some big totals in there, were there just one or two big dog systems or was it a cold snowy winter overall? I guess my point to all of this is asriel he's been mentioned before El Nino doesn't guarantee a great winter there certainly are a lot of other things that need to lineup for things to work, guess I'd rather just temper my expectations so to minimize the disappointment later haha.

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It's a scratch off lottery ticket (this isn't South Bend or Buffalo) ... but it's fun like at the Kangaroo counter dropping that $5.00 on the chance for ... :confused:
 
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metwannabe said:
Man I completely misspoke, or miss typed, in my original question to this chart. It's been a long day I did not mean averages I meant don't you think some of those snowfall totals for the individual El Nino Winters may be skewed. You know what I'm saying for instance the winter of 1930 - 1931 there's some big totals in there, were there just one or two big dog systems or was it a cold snowy winter overall? I guess my point to all of this is as has been mentioned before El Nino doesn't guarantee a great winter there certainly are a lot of other things that need to lineup for things to work, guess I'd rather just temper my expectations so to minimize the disappointment later haha.
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In case anyone cares, ATL had a few small events (traces) in 1930-1 and what may have been a moderate icestorm in mid-Dec,, but it was otherwise a typical cold rain dominated winter with some close calls. Total SN/IP only 0.1" vs 2" average.
 
metwannabe said:
Man I completely misspoke, or miss typed, in my original question to this chart. It's been a long day I did not mean averages I meant don't you think some of those snowfall totals for the individual El Nino Winters may be skewed. You know what I'm saying for instance the winter of 1930 - 1931 there's some big totals in there, were there just one or two big dog systems or was it a cold snowy winter overall? I guess my point to all of this is as has been mentioned before El Nino doesn't guarantee a great winter there certainly are a lot of other things that need to lineup for things to work, guess I'd rather just temper my expectations so to minimize the disappointment later haha.

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1930-31 is very analogous to 1986-87 in terms of both snowfall amounts and how they were distributed in east-central NC. A 2-3 day monster CAD event in mid December (Dec 15-18 1930) was the big dog that winter, producing something in the ballpark of 7-8” on average over the state (more than we usually get for an entire winter) and completely screwed over Raleigh and areas east with an IP fest. A pair of moderately sized winter storms appeared on January 8-9 1931 & January 14-15 1931 (I'm in the process of analyzing those events and quality controlling the data associated w/ them), and another medium event came on March 3-4 1931. The storm on March 3-4 1931 completely screwed over areas like RDU (again) while the central-western piedmont and east-central coastal plain cashed in. In terms of statewide average snowfall, the winter of 1930-31 ranks among the snowiest (I havent but doesn’t seem to be quite as snowy as winters like 1935-36, 1926-27, etc)

December 15-18 1930 NC Snowmap.png

March 3-4 1931 NC Snowmap.png


If you wanna see something crazy snowfall-wise in your backyard from a pair of big dogs just wait til you see the 1947-48 winter seasonal snow map, it was like 1926-27 in terms of snow amounts except the northern coastal plain got annihilated this time. Areas like Scotland Neck got 30", and Nashville about 36" of snow on the season.
 
Webberweather53 said:
1930-31 is very analogous to 1986-87 in terms of both snowfall amounts and how they were distributed in east-central NC. A 2-3 day monster CAD event in mid December (Dec 15-18 1930) was the big dog that winter, producing something in the ballpark of 7-8” on average over the state (more than we usually get for an entire winter) and completely screwed over Raleigh and areas east with an IP fest. A pair of moderately sized winter storms appeared on January 8-9 1931 & January 14-15 1931 (I'm in the process of analyzing those events and quality controlling the data associated w/ them), and another medium event came on March 3-4 1931. The storm on March 3-4 1931 completely screwed over areas like RDU (again) while the central-western piedmont and east-central coastal plain cashed in. In terms of statewide average snowfall, the winter of 1930-31 ranks among the snowiest (I havent but doesn’t seem to be quite as snowy as winters like 1935-36, 1926-27, etc)

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If you wanna see something crazy snowfall-wise in your backyard from a pair of big dogs just wait til you see the 1947-48 winter seasonal snow map, it was like 1926-27 in terms of snow amounts except the northern coastal plain got annihilated this time. Areas like Scotland Neck got 30", and Nashville about 36" of snow on the season.
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As an aside, to go along w/ the aforementioned theme with big winters, most of 1947-48's snow came in those back-to-back monsters in late January and early-mid February 1948.

I'd also like to mention that you got a white christmas in northern Halifax county during 1947-48 on top of getting about 25"+ of snow on the season.


December 24-25 1947 NC Snowmap.png
January 31-February 1 1948 NC Snow map.png
February 9-10 1948 NC Snowmap.png
 
I remember it like it was yesterday
Webberweather53 said:
As an aside, to go along w/ the aforementioned theme with big winters, most of 1947-48's snow came in those back-to-back monsters in late January and early-mid February 1948.

I'd also like to mention that you got a white christmas in northern Halifax county during 1947-48 on top of getting about 25"+ of snow on the season.


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GaWx said:
Now 3.4 is all the way up to +1.1 C.
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Where are you seeing this? On tidbits the 3.4 region is around .55C and hasn't been any higher than .8C this year.
nino34.png
 
snowlover91 said:
Interesting. So what data do they use that justifies the higher temp anomalies? Do they have buoys, ship data, or other satellite derived data they blend?
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Great questions that I don’t have answers to off the top of my head. By the way, I should add that Tidbits and the buoy based maps also often don’t jibe well.
 
GaWx said:
Great questions that I don’t have answers to off the top of my head. By the way, I should add that Tidbits and the buoy based maps also often don’t jibe well.
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CPC uses the weekly version of OISSTv2 in their analyses, this dataset uses buoys, satellites, ships, & optimum interpolation to fill in the gaps
 
Sure looks to me like we are heading to a stronger/weak classification or weaker/moderate El Nino. The key for us will be where the warmest water is located, the central to western Pacific or the Eastern Pacific and all indications point to the Central Modoki type
 
We’re almost certainly headed for a modoki-esque event this winter, the big hint to that is the positive North Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) & negative SPMM with cold water east of extratropical South America. Weaker El Niños are also more likely to be focused in the central Pacific because the thermocline is often not suppressed enough to compensate for the considerable and enhanced upwelling that takes place on the equator due to the cyclonic wind stress curl associated with the westerly winds that via Sverdrup Transport, increase meridional mass transport
 
This past October's East Pacific Warm Water Volume anomaly was 6th highest on record, in moderate El Nino territory if you use ranked percentiles, and was about 1 standard deviation above average. Also worth mentioning it was only superseded by moderate or strong El Ninos (1997-98, 1982-83, 2015-16, 2002-03, & 1991-92).
A weak or moderate central Pacific El Nino is the most likely outcome for this winter.
Screen Shot 2018-11-06 at 8.13.31 AM.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
This past October's East Pacific Warm Water Volume anomaly was 6th highest on record, in moderate El Nino territory if you use ranked percentiles, and was about 1 standard deviation above average. Also worth mentioning it was only superseded by moderate or strong El Ninos (1997-98, 1982-83, 2015-16, 2002-03, & 1991-92).
A weak or moderate central Pacific El Nino is the most likely outcome for this winter.
View attachment 7208
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Agree the location (3.4) of warmest water is now pretty well established, only the final strength is to be determined and I still think a strong El Nino is unlikely
 
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
8 November 2018

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch


Synopsis: El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (~80% chance) and into spring (55-60% chance).

ENSO-neutral continued during October, despite widespread above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. All four Niño regions showed increased SST anomalies in October, with the latest weekly values near +1.0°C in the Niño-4, Niño-3.4 and Niño3 regions, and +0.2°C in the Niño-1+2 region [Fig. 2]. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) also continued [Fig. 3], due to the persistence of above-average temperatures at depth across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. However, atmospheric convection remained slightly suppressed near the Date Line and over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Low-level westerly wind anomalies were observed over the eastern Pacific during October, while weak upper-level westerly wind anomalies were present over the far western Pacific. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were near zero. Despite the above-average ocean temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the overall coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict a Niño3.4 index of +0.5°C or greater to continue through the rest of the fall and winter and into spring [Fig. 6]. The official forecast favors the formation of a weak El Niño, with the expectation that the atmospheric circulation will eventually couple to the anomalous equatorial Pacific warmth. In summary, El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (~80% chance) and into spring (55-60% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).
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Note that Tidbits and TAO/Triton buoys have recently both cooled considerably back into weak El Nino territory:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cgi-tao/c...=on&script=disdel/lat-lon-5day-disdel-v75.csh

The OHC hit a whopping +1.58 in Oct.:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

OHCs usually peak before SSTs and often in Oct. Since Oct, it has cooled back slightly. Based on all of this, I predict that Oct's +1.58 will turn out to be the peak monthly OHC.

The last weekly 3.4 SST was considerably cooler at +0.8 after a prior week peak of +1.2. Based on history, there's a pretty high chance that the peak weekly for this fall/winter will end up being no warmer than +1.6, which would mean no strong Nino for the warmest trimonthly. If we were to get up to a +1.6 weekly peak, the corresponding trimonthly peak would likely be only in the +1.2 to +1.3 range. If the +1.2 peak were to hold, the trimonthly peak could end up only in the high end weak to low end moderate Nino range near +0.9 to +1.0.

The autumn OLR has been quite unusual:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/olr

Note the 2nd table's anomaly of +6.8. Every other El Nino since at least 1976 had a -Oct anomaly:

1976: -6.3
1977: -1.3
1979: -3.9
1982: -25.8
1986: -9.5
1987: -16.1
1991: -6.9
1994: -6.5
1997: -37.6
2002: -20.4
2004: -2.5
2006: -14.1
2009: N/A
2014: -0.8
2015: -21.4
2018: +6.8

Perhaps this is a sign that the Nino peak will end up only weak? Any thoughts?
 
pcbjr said:
Larry,
Is that a concern ... I'm not connecting the dots.
Thanks!
Phil
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Well, I think we'll end up with at least a weak El Nino per tri-monthlies, regardless. I'm trying to see if others more knowledgeable about OLR centered around the dateline (as the table is) feel any special dots need connecting.
 
Snowfan said:
Nino 3.4 is down to 0.7 C.
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It’s looking more and more likely that El Niño will peak near the border of weak/moderate. Whereas the very warm subsurface peak would appear to support a solid moderate, something seems to be holding it back. Is that due to there still being -AAM, which is normally associated with La Niña? Is it related to the still +OLR near the dateline as of October, which is also usually associated more with La Nina. Come to think about it, are the -AAM and +OLR directly related?

Anyway, weak to low end moderate Niño peaks, when combined with a -NAO and +PDO, have historically lead to some of the coldest SE US winters on record similar to what JB and the Pioneer model is forecasting. Then again, I don’t know if any of these very cold weak Niño winters had a -AAM at least early on. Does anyone have a link to AAM monthly history? TIA as I can’t find it.

**11/25 Edit: Although right about the Oct +OLR, I was wrong in thinking there was still a -AAM as that actually switched to +AAM in Oct and is now strongly +AAM.
 
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Nino 3.4 warmed a whopping 0.6 to +1.3! Unless I missed one, this ties the largest warming in one week back to 1990!
 
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Nino 3.4 cooled in Mon's update from +1.2 to +1.0. Tidbits and buoy map agree it has cooled. Maybe the 1.3 of 2 weeks back will end up as the weekly peak. If so, the trimonthly peak will likely be only slightly warmer than +1.0, if at all. So, borderline weak/moderate peak would be the case. Also, the buoys look more west based now.
 
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Niño 3.4 warmed very slightly to +1.1. It looks increasingly likely that the +1.3 of a few weeks ago will be the weekly peak when considering the OHC being well below the Oct high and the persistent +SOI of the last few weeks. Also, it looks the most west based yet. It is never a bad thing to have a borderline weak/moderate west based Niño peak following La Niña for SE winter prospects. We’ll see what cards the SE is dealt in Jan-mid March but I remain optimistic for an interesting pattern to return by no later than mid Jan. I’m guessing it will start pretty early in Jan. I’m saying this despite the surpringly warm new Jamstec DJF outlook.
 
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