Latest Nino 3.4 has cooled down to -0.2 C.
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Today's SOI rose from yesterday's ~-25, the lowest since Feb., to today's ~-15. I'm expecting tomorrow's SOI to be a small positive due to a significant SLP fall at Darwin and a rise at Tahiti.
The 0Z Euro indicates no return to the solid -SOI area at least for 10 days. It suggests no Darwin SLP above 1013 and mainly near the 1011.5-1012.5 range while Tahiti daily appears to mainly hang around the 1014-15 range. That would mean an average of near a +5 SOI for the upcoming 10 days (no SOI below the negative single digits), which is in contrast to the -7 averaged over the last 17 days. Based on this, we should end up pretty close to 0 for the first 17 days of May. So, from a potential oncoming El Nino standpoint, the May SOI so far isn't looking gung ho on it though we need to remember that the subsurface is pretty warm. Also, looking at history back to the late 1800s, weak to moderate El Ninos have often had pretty neutral to sometimes even solidly +s in preceding May SOIs. So, it is still too early to read much into the SOIs as far as weak to moderate El Nino chances are concerned. The summer SOIs will give us a bigger hint.
However, the 6 strongest Ninos had these preceding May SOIs: -7.0, -8.5, -24.0, -7.1, -19.0, and -13.1 or an average of -13.1. So, this tells me that a very strong El Nino isn't currently being suggested by the 5/2018 SOI.
The 0Z Euro indicates no return to the solid -SOI area at least for 10 days. It suggests no Darwin SLP above 1013 and mainly near the 1011.5-1012.5 range while Tahiti daily appears to mainly hang around the 1014-15 range. That would mean an average of near a +5 SOI for the upcoming 10 days (no SOI below the negative single digits), which is in contrast to the -7 averaged over the last 17 days. Based on this, we should end up pretty close to 0 for the first 17 days of May. So, from a potential oncoming El Nino standpoint, the May SOI so far isn't looking gung ho on it though we need to remember that the subsurface is pretty warm. Also, looking at history back to the late 1800s, weak to moderate El Ninos have often had pretty neutral to sometimes even solidly +s in preceding May SOIs. So, it is still too early to read much into the SOIs as far as weak to moderate El Nino chances are concerned. The summer SOIs will give us a bigger hint.
However, the 6 strongest Ninos had these preceding May SOIs: -7.0, -8.5, -24.0, -7.1, -19.0, and -13.1 or an average of -13.1. So, this tells me that a very strong El Nino isn't currently being suggested by the 5/2018 SOI.
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Since monthly upper equatorial Pacific OHC (subsurface) records started in 1979, here are the 10 warmest Aprils (180-100W) prior to 2018:
1997: +2.17
2015: +1.74
2014: +1.41
1982: +0.93
1980: +0.82
1993: +0.81
1991: +0.80
1981: +0.77
2009: +0.65
1990: +0.65
6 of these 10 as well as the four warmest (+0.93+) preceded El Nino. The other 4 preceded neutral ENSO. So, none preceded La Nina.
April of 2018 just came out and was +0.81, which is tied with April of 1993 for 6th warmest out of 40! Although it is impressively warm and should be taken into account for El Nino chances, this 0.81 is not warm enough to give me high confidence in an oncoming El Nino based strictly on the above stats as three that were nearby (1980's +0.82, 1993's +0.81 and 1981's +0.77) turned out to precede neutral ENSO falls/winters. 1993 turned out to be a major El Nino fake-out, much more misleading than 2017.
***Edit: Of Aprils of 1980, 1981, and 1993, 2 of the 3 cooled a lot the very next month. So, the May OHC may be a good hint of what's to come.
Monthly upper OHC link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt
1997: +2.17
2015: +1.74
2014: +1.41
1982: +0.93
1980: +0.82
1993: +0.81
1991: +0.80
1981: +0.77
2009: +0.65
1990: +0.65
6 of these 10 as well as the four warmest (+0.93+) preceded El Nino. The other 4 preceded neutral ENSO. So, none preceded La Nina.
April of 2018 just came out and was +0.81, which is tied with April of 1993 for 6th warmest out of 40! Although it is impressively warm and should be taken into account for El Nino chances, this 0.81 is not warm enough to give me high confidence in an oncoming El Nino based strictly on the above stats as three that were nearby (1980's +0.82, 1993's +0.81 and 1981's +0.77) turned out to precede neutral ENSO falls/winters. 1993 turned out to be a major El Nino fake-out, much more misleading than 2017.
***Edit: Of Aprils of 1980, 1981, and 1993, 2 of the 3 cooled a lot the very next month. So, the May OHC may be a good hint of what's to come.
Monthly upper OHC link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt
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pcbjr
Member
Larry,
Good info and a great link; please take a minute and look at Wiki and let me know if you'd like the link placed there, and if so, where; in that case I'll add it.
Best!
Phil
I didn't see an ENSO section. Maybe I missed it. If you were to start one, I'd put it in there. Otherwise, I wouldn't put it in the wiki.
pcbjr
Member
Here ya go - Just created it.
http://wiki.southernwx.com/doku.php?id=learning_materials
FS and I need to get a dedicated page to ENSO stuff, or get links and models into an ENSO section under "Models" with stuff like you provide. I'd prefer the latter in Models, but it may not fit (???).
Thoughts?
Best,
Phil
I'd have a section covering items used to predict oncoming ENSO. This can include ENSO prediction models. But I wouldn't call the section "models".
@pcbjr I need to explain further. I use current indices/indicators like SOI, OHC, SST anomalies, and other things to try to predict the following fall/winter ENSO. They're somewhat predictive based on the multidecadal+ history of each indicator. But since these aren't models, I wouldn't call the section "Models". Instead, I'd call the section, which certainly could include ENSO models, something like "Indicators used to predict ENSO". I also look at the ENSO models but not as frequently.
Maybe I'll provide to you at some point when I have more time a list of some of the other links I use that can go in this section.
Maybe I'll provide to you at some point when I have more time a list of some of the other links I use that can go in this section.
pcbjr
Member
Whatever we do and whenever, I just want it to be right ... Thanks, Larry! ...
pcbjr
Member
Thanks for the "Like" and whatever we do, it's not a clique, but weather for all ...Whatever we do and whenever, I just want it to be right ... Thanks, Larry! ...
NCSNOW
Member
I'll take neutral heading into fall/ winter. 1st choice is weak el Nino. And I mean weak, hair above neutral.
cd2play
Member
Wasn't 2009-10 a moderate El Nino? I was thinking it was on the border line between weak and moderate. I just hope we don't have another La Nina or even cool neutral.
It peaked at low end strong.
Latest ENSO discussion says no El Niño Advisory but nearly 50% chance of a El Niño by DJF.
accu35
Member
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- Jan 5, 2017
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- 10,791
Perfect timing
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Not for my area it isn't. Every El- Nino for winter time always goes wrong and gives little to no snow. Get it out of here and into March!
Latest Nino 3.4 update has it warming to -0.1 C.
Latest Nino 3.4 update is the same from last update.
Indeed, Niño 3.4 stays at -0.1C:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
Note in this update that the upper equatorial Pacific OHC is not only holding up but it is starting to slowly rise again and is back above +0.80. If this persists into June, the chance at a weak to possibly moderate El Niño peak in late fall or winter would increase.
At the same time, I have just learned about a 0.5 C warm bias in the May Eurosip ASO Niño 3.4 forecast based on 13 years of data. Therefore, I eagerly await the release of the May 2018 Eurosip ASO Niño 3.4 forecast. If it were to come in at only warm neutral, I'd have to favor no warmer than warm neutral for at least ASO even though it could subsequently reach weak El Niño later in the year. Even if it were to come in at weak El Niño in ASO, I'd have to remain wary about it happening as early as ASO due to this 0.5 C warm bias. Sometimes Eurosip has gotten this right but more often it has missed to the warm side. Then again, a persistently warm upper OHC may mean this would be one of the times Eurosip gets it right.
The May, 2018, Eurosip ENSO 3.4 SST anomaly forecast through October was released today:
https://stream.ecmwf.int/data/gorax...7-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-2H4fDD.png
I have it near +0.35 or warm neutral rather than weak El Nino for ASO averaged out. Based on what I've found to be a significant warm bias in the Eurosip, I'm now expecting no warmer than warm neutral for ASO despite a solidly warm subsurface that is now starting to rewarm slowly. Because of this warm bias and because we're still cold neutral, I can't yet count out cold neutral for ASO though I'm thinking warm neutral has the best chance right now due to the warm subsurface and since 5 of the 13 Eurosip forecasts turned out accurate. I still think it MAY get to weak to possibly low end moderate El Nino status by late fall or early winter, especially if the warm subsurface holds or warms.
I found this warm bias by looking at how the ASO 3.4 SST anomaly forecasts made in the preceding May by Eurosip verified:
Year: Eurosip's May fcast verification for ASO 3.4
2017: 1.1 cooler (cold neutral occurred vs weak El Niño prediction)
2016: 0.1 warmer (weak La Niña correctly predicted)
2015: 0.1 warmer (strong El Niño correctly predicted)
2014: 0.5 cooler (warm neutral occurred vs weak El Niño prediction)
2013: 0.5 cooler (cold neutral occurred vs warm neutral prediction)
2012: 0.9 cooler (warm neutral occurred vs moderate El Niño prediction)
2011: 1.1 cooler (moderate La Niña occurred vs warm neutral prediction)
2010: 0.9 cooler (strong La Niña occurred vs weak La Niña prediction)
2009: 0.2 cooler (weak El Niño correctly predicted)
2008: 0.8 cooler (cold neutral occurred vs weak El Niño prediction)
2007: 0.2 cooler (moderate La Niña correctly predicted)
2006: 0.2 cooler (weak El Niño correctly predicted)
2005: 0.4 cooler (cold neutral occurred vs warm neutral prediction)
So, of the 13 May forecasts for ASO, 5 were correctly predicted while 3 were one category too warm, 4 were two categories too warm, and 1 was three categories too warm. None were any categories too cold! The average was 0.5 too warm or one category too warm.
Out of the 7 Eurosip El Niño predictions for ASO in the preceding May, only 3 verified. In contrast, Eurosip predicted only 3 La Niñas in ASO but 4 occurred.
Of the 3 warm neutral predictions, 2 ended up one category too warm while 1 ended up three categories too warm. Of the 5 weak El Niño predictions, 2 ended up verifying correctly while 1 was one category too warm and 2 were two categories too warm.
Out of the 13 predictions, weak El Niño was clearly the most common prediction (5) while warm neutral was 2nd most common (3). Next was weak La Niña (2). The remainder were each predicted once: strong El Niño, moderate El Niño, and moderate La Niña. There were no cold neutral or strong La Niña predictions though 4 cold neutral occurred (the most of any category) and one strong La Niña occurred.
So, of the 13 May predictions for ASO, a whopping 10 were warmer than 0.0 while only 3 were colder. It turned out that only 5 were warmer than 0.0 while 8 were colder.
The average May Eurosip ASO 3.4 prog during 2005-17 was for +0.4 vs the -0.1 actual.
https://stream.ecmwf.int/data/gorax...7-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-2H4fDD.png
I have it near +0.35 or warm neutral rather than weak El Nino for ASO averaged out. Based on what I've found to be a significant warm bias in the Eurosip, I'm now expecting no warmer than warm neutral for ASO despite a solidly warm subsurface that is now starting to rewarm slowly. Because of this warm bias and because we're still cold neutral, I can't yet count out cold neutral for ASO though I'm thinking warm neutral has the best chance right now due to the warm subsurface and since 5 of the 13 Eurosip forecasts turned out accurate. I still think it MAY get to weak to possibly low end moderate El Nino status by late fall or early winter, especially if the warm subsurface holds or warms.
I found this warm bias by looking at how the ASO 3.4 SST anomaly forecasts made in the preceding May by Eurosip verified:
Year: Eurosip's May fcast verification for ASO 3.4
2017: 1.1 cooler (cold neutral occurred vs weak El Niño prediction)
2016: 0.1 warmer (weak La Niña correctly predicted)
2015: 0.1 warmer (strong El Niño correctly predicted)
2014: 0.5 cooler (warm neutral occurred vs weak El Niño prediction)
2013: 0.5 cooler (cold neutral occurred vs warm neutral prediction)
2012: 0.9 cooler (warm neutral occurred vs moderate El Niño prediction)
2011: 1.1 cooler (moderate La Niña occurred vs warm neutral prediction)
2010: 0.9 cooler (strong La Niña occurred vs weak La Niña prediction)
2009: 0.2 cooler (weak El Niño correctly predicted)
2008: 0.8 cooler (cold neutral occurred vs weak El Niño prediction)
2007: 0.2 cooler (moderate La Niña correctly predicted)
2006: 0.2 cooler (weak El Niño correctly predicted)
2005: 0.4 cooler (cold neutral occurred vs warm neutral prediction)
So, of the 13 May forecasts for ASO, 5 were correctly predicted while 3 were one category too warm, 4 were two categories too warm, and 1 was three categories too warm. None were any categories too cold! The average was 0.5 too warm or one category too warm.
Out of the 7 Eurosip El Niño predictions for ASO in the preceding May, only 3 verified. In contrast, Eurosip predicted only 3 La Niñas in ASO but 4 occurred.
Of the 3 warm neutral predictions, 2 ended up one category too warm while 1 ended up three categories too warm. Of the 5 weak El Niño predictions, 2 ended up verifying correctly while 1 was one category too warm and 2 were two categories too warm.
Out of the 13 predictions, weak El Niño was clearly the most common prediction (5) while warm neutral was 2nd most common (3). Next was weak La Niña (2). The remainder were each predicted once: strong El Niño, moderate El Niño, and moderate La Niña. There were no cold neutral or strong La Niña predictions though 4 cold neutral occurred (the most of any category) and one strong La Niña occurred.
So, of the 13 May predictions for ASO, a whopping 10 were warmer than 0.0 while only 3 were colder. It turned out that only 5 were warmer than 0.0 while 8 were colder.
The average May Eurosip ASO 3.4 prog during 2005-17 was for +0.4 vs the -0.1 actual.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Even after several weeks of strong trades east of the dateline, all it took was a momentary lapse over the past week and change, and now the downwelling kelvin wave over the CP is having little trouble infiltrating into the eastern boundary region, expect the NINO 1-2 & NINO 3 regions to warm quite a bit in early June. When your base state is characterized by strong-very strong easterly trade winds and you even a have a momentary hiccup to upset the wind-gravity balance, that could be enough to flip the ENSO state especially if there's already some pre-existing momentum in place like there was here. I still like the chances of a weak-moderate El Nino developing for this upcoming winter, the odds are probably at least double climatology (> 60-65%)
The subsurface seems to be slowly rewarming. If this continues for a few more weeks, it is liable to exceed +1.0 C by mid summer. This would be a strong indicator that a weak to moderate El Niño peak in late fall or winter has a good chance. Otoh, that May Eurosip map suggests to me that the ONI (trimonthly) would very likely not reach +0.5 until after ASO.
Indeed, this morning's weekly update has the OHC now up to a new high for this season of +0.94. That in itself tells me the odds are increasing for a weak to moderate Modoki El Niño peak late fall or more likely winter. However, the May Eurosip ASO forecast of only warm neutral tells me to expect any El Niño, should it occur, to be late in starting based on ONI since the May Eurosip has had a history of a warm bias. This is going to be interesting to follow.
The weekly 3.4 update had no change and is still at -0.1.
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Warmest May OHC anomaly back to 1979/Later ENSO peak/May SOI
+2.01 1997/ lead to strong El Nino/ May SOI: -19.0
+1.53 2015/ lead to strong El Nino/ May SOI: -13.1
+1.14 1980/ El Nino fail/neutral/ May SOI: -2.6
+0.96 1982/ lead to strong El Nino/ May SOI: -7.1
+0.95 2014/ lead to weak El Nino/ May SOI: +4.3
+0.89 2018/ ???????????????/ May SOI: +2.7
+0.87 2009/ lead to strong El Nino/ May SOI: -5.0
+0.76 1991/ lead to strong El Nino/ May SOI: -17.9
+0.61 1989/ warmed only to neutral/ May SOI: +15.1
+0.58 1987/ lead to strong El Nino/ May SOI: -19.6
+0.54 2006/ lead to weak El Nino/ May SOI: -7.7
So, 8 of the 10 (80%) of the surrounding years were El Nino by late in the year. The two that failed had a May SOI of -2.6 (1980) and +15.1 (1989). Of the 7 that had a May SOI -5.0 or lower, 6 went onto a strong Nino peak and one went only to a weak El Nino peak. None of the 3 that were higher than -5.0 went to a moderate or stronger El Nino. This all tells me that the chance for strong El Nino by winter remains low, but the chance for weak (to perhaps moderate) El Nino is increasing. However, I still think ASO will only be warm neutral based on the warm biased Eurosip, which in May forecasted warm neutral for ASO.
+2.01 1997/ lead to strong El Nino/ May SOI: -19.0
+1.53 2015/ lead to strong El Nino/ May SOI: -13.1
+1.14 1980/ El Nino fail/neutral/ May SOI: -2.6
+0.96 1982/ lead to strong El Nino/ May SOI: -7.1
+0.95 2014/ lead to weak El Nino/ May SOI: +4.3
+0.89 2018/ ???????????????/ May SOI: +2.7
+0.87 2009/ lead to strong El Nino/ May SOI: -5.0
+0.76 1991/ lead to strong El Nino/ May SOI: -17.9
+0.61 1989/ warmed only to neutral/ May SOI: +15.1
+0.58 1987/ lead to strong El Nino/ May SOI: -19.6
+0.54 2006/ lead to weak El Nino/ May SOI: -7.7
So, 8 of the 10 (80%) of the surrounding years were El Nino by late in the year. The two that failed had a May SOI of -2.6 (1980) and +15.1 (1989). Of the 7 that had a May SOI -5.0 or lower, 6 went onto a strong Nino peak and one went only to a weak El Nino peak. None of the 3 that were higher than -5.0 went to a moderate or stronger El Nino. This all tells me that the chance for strong El Nino by winter remains low, but the chance for weak (to perhaps moderate) El Nino is increasing. However, I still think ASO will only be warm neutral based on the warm biased Eurosip, which in May forecasted warm neutral for ASO.
I just noticed something quite interesting about the May, 2018, pressures at Tahiti and Darwin:
Darwin monthly SLP: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/darwin
Tahiti monthly SLP: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/tahiti
- Tahiti's May, 2018, SLP, which was 1014.1, was the highest on record back to 1951! The normal is only 1012.7. The four highest on record preceding El Nino were 1013.9 (2014 and 1976) followed by 13.7 (2004) and 13.3 (1979), all 4 weak Ninos.
- However, Darwin's was also above normal with its 1012.2. Only 9 of the prior 67 years had higher and 3 were the same. The four cited weak Nino years all had lower Darwin pressures ranging from 10.6 to 12.0. That's why all 4 of those years had a +SOI in May.
- All of the above along with the latest Eurosip for ASO being only warm neutral tells me that any 2018-9 El Nino, which is strongly hinted at by the current +1.01 OHC, would likely be weak to low end moderate.
Darwin monthly SLP: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/darwin
Tahiti monthly SLP: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/tahiti
- Tahiti's May, 2018, SLP, which was 1014.1, was the highest on record back to 1951! The normal is only 1012.7. The four highest on record preceding El Nino were 1013.9 (2014 and 1976) followed by 13.7 (2004) and 13.3 (1979), all 4 weak Ninos.
- However, Darwin's was also above normal with its 1012.2. Only 9 of the prior 67 years had higher and 3 were the same. The four cited weak Nino years all had lower Darwin pressures ranging from 10.6 to 12.0. That's why all 4 of those years had a +SOI in May.
- All of the above along with the latest Eurosip for ASO being only warm neutral tells me that any 2018-9 El Nino, which is strongly hinted at by the current +1.01 OHC, would likely be weak to low end moderate.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I wouldn't get too caught up over the Eurosip forecast NINO bias, but it's better to look at the large-scale conditions rather than focus on the bias of the model forecasting those conditions because the latter is ridden w/ far more uncertainty and unknowns.
In other news, this guy is a prime example of why you don't want to get caught in windshield wiper mode during every sub seasonal forcing change in the Eq Pacific. The integrated effect of several MJO events over a period of several months is what really matters and this favors weak El Nino regardless of whether we somehow get a few weeks of stronger than normal trades (which is normal btw), or the noisy southern oscillation index for a particular month or two is of "x" value.
In other news, this guy is a prime example of why you don't want to get caught in windshield wiper mode during every sub seasonal forcing change in the Eq Pacific. The integrated effect of several MJO events over a period of several months is what really matters and this favors weak El Nino regardless of whether we somehow get a few weeks of stronger than normal trades (which is normal btw), or the noisy southern oscillation index for a particular month or two is of "x" value.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
accu35
Member
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So all this means possible Weak/Mod Nino?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep, pretty much the same tune I've been singing for several months now
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Some wonder why I've been so gung-ho on an oncoming El Nino this upcoming fall/winter for the last several months, this is why.
Nino 3.4 held at 0.0.
Per yesterday's Euro runs largely averaged out and adjusted for biases, here's my rough SOI projections for the next 10 days:
6/11: -26
6/12: -28
6/13: -9
6/14: +1
6/15: 0
6/16: -7
6/17: -13
6/18: -17
6/19: -13
6/20: -9
Based on this, I'm guessing the 6/1-20 SOI will be near -8 and will mean June as a whole has a pretty high chance to end up negative and a pretty good chance to end up sub -5. That would be pretty supportive of a later in the year weak to low end moderate El Nino based on history back to the late 1800s and especially when considering the subsurface now being near or warmer than +1.0.
I'm projecting Tahiti to be in or near the 1014-1014.25 range and Darwin to be in or near the 1014.3-1014.7 range for 6/1-20. Consider these stats:
Avg June Darwin SLP minus 1000: 13.0
Avg June Tahiti SLP minus 1000: 13.7
Avg June Darwin SLP minus 1000 strong Nino: 13.5
Avg June Darwin SLP minus 1000 wk-mod Nino: 13.0
Avg June Darwin SLP minus 1000 weak Nina: 13.0
Avg June Darwin SLP minus 1000 mod-str Nina: 12.8
Avg June Tahiti SLP minus 1000 strong Nino: 12.8
Avg June Tahiti SLP minus 1000 wk-mod Nino: 13.5
Avg June Tahiti SLP minus 1000 weak Nina: 14.2
Avg June Tahiti SLP minus 1000 mod-str Nina: 14.1
So, the Darwin SLP appears on the way to above normal for June with Tahiti slightly above. Actually, there have been only 3 Junes with Darwin SLP higher than 1014 mb since 1950: 2004 (preceded weak El Nino), 1997 (preceded SEN), and 1965 (preceded SEN). So, Darwin, alone, favors El Nino.
Have there been any Tahiti Junes in the high 1013s or higher that preceded El Nino? Actually, there have been a pretty good number but mainly weak: 1965 SEN (1013.7), 1968 MEN (1014.9), 1969 WEN (1013.8), 1976 WEN (1013.8), 1979 WEN (1014.5), 1991 SEN (1013.8), 2004 WEN (1013.7), and 2006 WEN (1013.8).
Conclusion: I'm leaning toward a late oncoming (after ASO in deference to the Eurosip May Nino 3.4 forecast for ASO being only warm neutral) weak to low end moderate El Nino this year.
*Edit: The 6/11 daily SOI should have been released by now. Maybe they're on vacation.
Per yesterday's Euro runs largely averaged out and adjusted for biases, here's my rough SOI projections for the next 10 days:
6/11: -26
6/12: -28
6/13: -9
6/14: +1
6/15: 0
6/16: -7
6/17: -13
6/18: -17
6/19: -13
6/20: -9
Based on this, I'm guessing the 6/1-20 SOI will be near -8 and will mean June as a whole has a pretty high chance to end up negative and a pretty good chance to end up sub -5. That would be pretty supportive of a later in the year weak to low end moderate El Nino based on history back to the late 1800s and especially when considering the subsurface now being near or warmer than +1.0.
I'm projecting Tahiti to be in or near the 1014-1014.25 range and Darwin to be in or near the 1014.3-1014.7 range for 6/1-20. Consider these stats:
Avg June Darwin SLP minus 1000: 13.0
Avg June Tahiti SLP minus 1000: 13.7
Avg June Darwin SLP minus 1000 strong Nino: 13.5
Avg June Darwin SLP minus 1000 wk-mod Nino: 13.0
Avg June Darwin SLP minus 1000 weak Nina: 13.0
Avg June Darwin SLP minus 1000 mod-str Nina: 12.8
Avg June Tahiti SLP minus 1000 strong Nino: 12.8
Avg June Tahiti SLP minus 1000 wk-mod Nino: 13.5
Avg June Tahiti SLP minus 1000 weak Nina: 14.2
Avg June Tahiti SLP minus 1000 mod-str Nina: 14.1
So, the Darwin SLP appears on the way to above normal for June with Tahiti slightly above. Actually, there have been only 3 Junes with Darwin SLP higher than 1014 mb since 1950: 2004 (preceded weak El Nino), 1997 (preceded SEN), and 1965 (preceded SEN). So, Darwin, alone, favors El Nino.
Have there been any Tahiti Junes in the high 1013s or higher that preceded El Nino? Actually, there have been a pretty good number but mainly weak: 1965 SEN (1013.7), 1968 MEN (1014.9), 1969 WEN (1013.8), 1976 WEN (1013.8), 1979 WEN (1014.5), 1991 SEN (1013.8), 2004 WEN (1013.7), and 2006 WEN (1013.8).
Conclusion: I'm leaning toward a late oncoming (after ASO in deference to the Eurosip May Nino 3.4 forecast for ASO being only warm neutral) weak to low end moderate El Nino this year.
*Edit: The 6/11 daily SOI should have been released by now. Maybe they're on vacation.
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Nino 3.4 warmed to 0.2 C. And CPC issued a El Niño Watch.
Thanks. However, note that despite the 0.2 warming in Niño 3.4, the upper OHC actually cooled a bit to +0.82 after having been near +1.0 in late May. So, perhaps that means any further warming over the next couple of months will be slow overall. I’m still thinking only warm neutral for ASO (based largely on the warm biased May Eurosip being only at warm neutral for ASO) followed by warming to weak to low end moderate El Niño later in fall to winter.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It was hardly above +0.9 and barely dropped to +0.8, we had a larger drop in April and that really didn't mean much. It's not going to make that much of a difference in the grand scheme of things, I wouldn't delve too much into it, especially when there's been more WWBs.
Eric,
The OHC graph within the 6/4/18 report did actually show near +1.0 as per this post:
http://southernwx.com/community/threads/enso-updates.146/page-16#post-101602
CPC has since cooled it back some for that period in each of the subsequent two weekly releases, but it was showing near +1.0 then.
Regardless of exactly how much it has cooled back, it has cooled a small amount and I'm sticking with my prediction that the ASO trimonth will be warm neutral (cooler than +0.5) based largely on the May Eurosip being only warm neutral for ASO. During 2005-17 it never missed a category to the cool side. The average miss was a whopping +0.5, a very significant warm bias. I'm expecting ONI based El Nino to start during the SON trimonth or later.
What are you predicting for the ASO trimonth for Nino 3.4?
Regardless of my prediction of only warm neutral for ASO, I still expect the tropics to be affected negatively by the anticipated oncoming El Nino
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Where are you getting +1.01C from because it’s not listed in the CPCs weekly report? If you're just eyeballing it then that doesn't count, it certainly seems to have barely ticked above +0.9C. Regardless you have to keep in mind that the GODAS analysis the CPC uses is often much different than the actual data provided by the TAO buoys, a change of a tenth or two degrees C is well within the understood error range of this product. I think you’re overreacting to this apparent downturn in OHC.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A quarter to a third of degree C (0.33) is well within the understood error range for this product, you only have to look so far as to other ocean models published by ECMWF, JMA, and the BOM to see that this apparent change in the CPC's GODAS product isn't significant or arguably even measurable.
Yes, it was eyeballing. Also, it actually was showing warmer (near +1.0) in the 6/4 report though the 6/11 report wasn't quite as warm and the 6/18 report was even a little cooler.For whatever reason, they often modify earlier periods.
It is Eurosip that is what I had last month based my ASO prediction on. At the time, OHC was rising toward new seasonal highs. The recent slight OHC cooldown came well after that prediction.
What are you predicting for ASO?
NCSNOW
Member
HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2018
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS
THE JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER (JAS) 2018 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN, ALTHOUGH EQUAL CHANCES
OF BELOW-, NEAR-, OR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE JAS 2018 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FEATURES ENHANCED ODDS
FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT BASIN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO
FORECAST ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.
DURING THE FALL AND WINTER 2018-19, THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING ODDS OF EL NINO DEVELOPMENT AND ITS TYPICAL
INFLUENCES. CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, COMPARED TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS. ODDS FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE WINTER 2018-19, FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EAST TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
EQUAL CHANCES (EC) ARE FORECAST IN AREAS WHERE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEASONAL MEAN
TEMPERATURES OR SEASONAL ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES.
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS
NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS
OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC INDICATE
ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS PERSISTED THROUGH MAY. THE OBSERVED WEEKLY SSTS,
CENTERED ON JUNE 13, FEATURE POSITIVE ANOMALIES OF MORE THAN 0.5 DEGREE C FROM
140-100 DEGREES W AND ALSO WEST OF THE DATE LINE. POSITIVE SUBSURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (AVERAGED ACROSS 180-100 DEGREES W) CONTINUED TO
INCREASE, DUE TO ANOTHER DOWNWELLING OCEANIC KELVIN WAVE.
OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION (OLR) ANOMALIES INDICATED SUPPRESSED CONVECTION
FROM PAPUA NEW GUINEA EAST TO THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN FROM MAY 18
TO JUNE 12. THE WIND ANOMALIES AT THE LOWER AND UPPER-LEVELS WERE NEAR AVERAGE
ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THESE ATMOSPHERIC INDICATORS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS
THE CPC SST CONSOLIDATION (CON) FOR THE NINO 3.4 REGION INDICATES AN INCREASE
IN ANOMALIES TO +0.5 DEGREES C BY SON WITH POSITIVE ANOMALIES PEAKING CLOSER TO
1.0 DEGREES C DURING NDJ AND DJF 2018-19. THE SST CONSTRUCTED ANALOG AND MARKOV
MODEL INDICATE PEAK ANOMALY VALUES GREATER THAN 1.0 C THIS UPCOMING WINTER. THE
CPC/IRI CONSENSUS FORECAST FAVORS THE ONSET OF EL NINO DURING THE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE FALL WITH PROBABILITIES OF EL NINO ABOVE 60 PERCENT FROM NDJ 2018-19
JFM 2019.
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS
THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF EL NINO DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO PLAY A MAJOR
FACTOR IN THE FALL AND WINTER 2018-19 OUTLOOKS. TOOLS USED FOR THE SEASONAL
OUTLOOKS INCLUDED DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NORTH AMERICAN
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME), THE ENSO-OCN STATISTICAL MODEL, THE SST
CONSTRUCTED ANALOG MODEL, AND EL NINO COMPOSITES. A RELATIVELY NEW TOOL IN OUR
SUITE IS THE CBAM TOOL, OR CALIBRATION, BRIDGING, AND MERGING FORECAST TOOL.
THIS USES A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO THE NMME MODEL CONSOLIDATION AS WELL AS A
HYBRIDIZATION WHEREIN EACH CONSTITUENT MODEL'S NINO 3.4 FORECAST IS 'BRIDGED'
TO THE PREDICTAND VIA LINEAR REGRESSION. THE OUTLOOKS DURING THE 2019 WARM
SEASON WERE BASED PRIMARILY ON DECADAL TRENDS.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - JAS 2018 TO JAS 2019
TEMPERATURE
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA DURING
JAS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FORECAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, BASED ON EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG TOOLS INCLUDING A STRONG DECADAL
SIGNAL. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE REDUCED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST FROM THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK DUE TO INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN A
WETTER PATTERN. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. DURING JAS, COMPARED TO LAST MONTH, WITH THE CONSIDERATION
OF LOW SOIL MOISTURE TO START THE OUTLOOK PERIOD ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION, A
DRIER TREND IN THE SEASONAL TOOLS, AND CONSISTENCY WITH THE JULY TEMPERATURE
OUTLOOK. ALSO, THE IMME INDICATES POSITIVE TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES FOR THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. EQUAL CHANCES FOR BELOW-,
NEAR-, OR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWEST.
THE INCREASING CHANCES FOR EL NINO DEVELOPMENT WERE A FACTOR IN THE TEMPERATURE
OUTLOOK, BEGINNING IN THE FALL AND BECOMING MORE PROMINENT DURING THE WINTER
2018-19. BASED ON EL NINO COMPOSITES, PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND ALONG THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS WITH A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. AN EXPECTED LACK OF SEA
ICE ELEVATES CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
DURING THE FALL SEASON. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK AT THE LONGER LEAD TIMES IS
BASED LARGELY ON TRENDS.
PRECIPITATION
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE,
THROUGH NDJ, ALONG WITH THE TYPICAL INFLUENCES FROM EL NINO DURING THE FALL AND
WINTER 2018-19. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK FOR JAS, ODDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION WERE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NMME AND POTENTIAL RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES, WHICH ARE MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT
THESE AREAS DURING A DEVELOPING EL NINO. THE LATEST PRECIPITATION TOOLS,
INDICATE LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FOR THE INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR FLORIDA, SO THAT WAS REMOVED FROM THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. THE
NMME INDICATES RELATIVELY HIGH ODDS FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXTENDING
FROM THE CARIBBEAN REGION WEST TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MUCH OF TEXAS AND THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION WERE INTRODUCED TO PARTS OF TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FOR JAS. PRECIPITATION TOOLS REMAINED CONSISTENT FEATURING ENHANCED ODDS
FOR ABOVE (BELOW) NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.S.
(PACIFIC NORTHWEST) AND A RELATIVELY WET PATTERN FOR MUCH OF ALASKA.
EL NINO PRECIPITATION COMPOSITES WERE RELIED UPON IN THE OUTLOOKS DURING THE
FALL AND WINTER SEASONS WHEN ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, GULF COAST STATES, AND SOUTHEAST.
THE STRONGEST WET SIGNAL EXISTS ACROSS FLORIDA DURING NDJ AND DJF, WHILE A DRY
SIGNAL EXISTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING JFM AND FMA.
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ACROSS ALASKA DURING THE FALL AND WINTER IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE SST CONSTRUCTED ANALOG.
AT THE LONGER LEADS, MJJ THROUGH JAS 2019, THE TILT IN THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IS CONSISTENT
WITH TRENDS. ALSO, THE FAVORED AREA FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS DURING THESE OUTLOOK PERIODS IS RELATED TO TRENDS.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATIC REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.
FOR A DESCRIPTION OF OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL- AND THE
FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/TOOLS.HTML
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INFORMATION ON THE FORMATION OF SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT:
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NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR
VALID PERIOD. WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM
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