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Pattern ENSO Updates

Nino 3.4 warmed from +0.2 to +0.4 in today's weekly update. The subsurface also warmed slightly.

The June Eurosip recently updated and is a little warmer than the May update with low end weak El Niño (near +0.5 in Niño 3.4) for ASO averaged out with it warming to near +0.6 in Oct. This near +0.5 compares to near +0.35 for ASO in the May update.

Consistent with this warming, it has even higher pressures in the MDR for ASO from near 30W westward through the Caribbean and the GOM vs the already pretty high pressures shown in the May update. This update now has slightly higher pressure than the June ASO forecast for 2014. The June forecast for ASO 2015 is still somewhat higher with the pressures and is the only June forecast showing higher ASO pressures vs 2018. The message is clearly to expect a pretty quiet season in the MDR through the GOM overall with perhaps near normal north of 30-35N east of the CONUS to possibly up to near the NE US/SE Canada assuming this forecast has a decent clue.
 
I just compared May and June Eurosip and found that June overall still averaged too warm for ASO by almost the same margin: +0.4 for June vs the +0.5 of May. Some Junes were significantly cooler than the respective May like 2017 and 2007 but others were slightly warmer and further away like 2012 (June 1.0 too warm vs May's 0.9 too warm), 2009 (June 0.4 too warm vs May's 0.2 too warm), 2008 (June 0.9 too warm vs May's 0.8 too warm), and 2005 (June 0.6 too warm vs May's 0.4 too warm).

Here is the list of years with June being available:

Year: Eurosip's June fcast verification for ASO 3.4
2017: 0.6 cooler (cold neutral occurred vs warm neutral prediction)
2016: 0.1 cooler (weak La Niña correctly predicted)
2015: 0.3 warmer (strong El Niño correctly predicted)
2014: 0.5 cooler (warm neutral occurred vs weak El Niño prediction)
2012: 1.0 cooler (warm neutral occurred vs moderate El Niño prediction)
2009: 0.4 cooler (weak El Niño occurred vs moderate El Nino predicted)
2008: 0.9 cooler (cold neutral occurred vs weak El Niño prediction)
2007: 0.1 warmer (moderate La Niña correctly predicted)
2006: 0.2 cooler (weak El Niño correctly predicted)
2005: 0.6 cooler (cold neutral occurred vs weak El Nino prediction)

So, 4 of these 10 June forecasts were pretty much correct (2016, 2015, 2007, 2006) for the ENSO phase for ASO with 2015 actually ending up 0.3 warmer. Perhaps that represents the upside risk, which would mean an actual SST of near +0.8 for ASO of 2018 max. Three were still 2 categories too warm: 2012, 2008, and 2005. Per the current OHC, 2018 is just a little cooler than 2009 and is a little warmer than 2006 and 2012. 2014 had been similar in May, but it plunged in June totally unlike the current case. 2017 was much cooler. So, the current OHC suggests ASO has a good chance to reach weak El Nino. The significant misses of the June Eurosips that predicted El Nino in ASO were 2014, 2012, 2009, and 2005. But 2014 can be thrown out since its OHC plunged in June. And 2012's OHC was near 0.3 cooler than 2018 is now. That leaves us with 2009 and 2005. 2005 was much cooler...so I can throw 2005 out. That leaves us with 2009 as the best analog, which as mentioned had a slightly warmer OHC. It also had a slightly warmer Nino 3.4 SST. As shown above, the June Eurosip for 2009 ended up 0.4 too warm for ASO 3.4 SST, which was +0.7. This all tells me that the coolest for ASO of 2018 3.4 SST may be around +0.1.

So, I'm currently in the +0.1 to +0.8 range for the ASO Nino 3.4 SST anomaly meaning either warm neutral or weak El Nino for ASO. My best guess for ASO: right on the border or near +0.4 to +0.5. This is a change from my prior prediction of warm neutral. Note that this prediction is taking into account current OHC and SST and, therefore, is not relying on just Eurosip.
 
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The MJJ ONI just came in at +0.1. The July OHC just came in at +0.81.

Based on a combination of the just released +0.1C MJJ ONI and July OHC of +0.81, will there be El Niño later this year (based on the ONI table) and into the winter? History back to 1979 says likely but 2012 says look at me as I didn’t become El Niño. Other than 2012, all years with July OHC near or warmer than July of 2018’s +0.81 and similar or warmer 3.4 SSTs (1989 was too cool at surface to count as analog) went on to become El Niño if they weren’t already. The closest analogs (those not yet at +0.5 in MJJ for ONI) are 2004, 2006, 2009, and 2012. 3 of these 4 went on to El Niño later in the year. El Niño has to still be favored imo but 2012 says don’t bet the ranch on it just yet.
 
GaWx said:
The MJJ ONI just came in at +0.1. The July OHC just came in at +0.81.

Based on a combination of the just released +0.1C MJJ ONI and July OHC of +0.81, will there be El Niño later this year (based on the ONI table) and into the winter? History back to 1979 says likely but 2012 says look at me as I didn’t become El Niño. Other than 2012, all years with July OHC near or warmer than July of 2018’s +0.81 and similar or warmer 3.4 SSTs (1989 was too cool at surface to count as analog) went on to become El Niño if they weren’t already. The closest analogs (those not yet at +0.5 in MJJ for ONI) are 2004, 2006, 2009, and 2012. 3 of these 4 went on to El Niño later in the year. El Niño has to still be favored imo but 2012 says don’t bet the ranch on it just yet.
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Larry,
As always, great info! Really appreciated!!!
Not gonna bet the ranch on anything, but I'll sell it at a discount, no Realtor® fee included, if this happens again ... LOL ...

cd2001-579-2424-31-b946-f572-4124-7549.216.14.23.47.prcp.png
 
Today’s update has Niño 3.4 cooled from +0.3 to +0.1 although it has OHC hanging up there near a still solidly warm +0.75, which I still think favors El Niño (likely Modoki) later in 2018. But remember that 2012, a very close analog per both 3.4 SST and OHC, was El Niño fail. So, don’t bet the ranch on El Niño even though I’d bet something on it. Eurosip has for several months of forecasts been showing a delay in 3.4 warming in late summer. So, this delay is no surprise.
 
GaWx said:
Today’s update has Niño 3.4 cooled from +0.3 to +0.1 although it has OHC hanging up there near a still solidly warm +0.75, which I still think favors El Niño (likely Modoki) later in 2018. But remember that 2012, a very close analog per both 3.4 SST and OHC, was El Niño fail. So, don’t bet the ranch on El Niño even though I’d bet something on it. Eurosip has for several months of forecasts been showing a delay in 3.4 warming in late summer. So, this delay is no surprise.
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Nino fail possibly. Cold pool in eastern tropical pac is expanding. The 73/83/98 super nino's all had 3 year nina's that followed. It would make sense to have another nina this winter with move to nino in 2019.

oisst_anom_3d_globe_2018081300.png Dep_Sec_EQ_5d.gif
 
Kylo said:
Nino fail possibly. Cold pool in eastern tropical pac is expanding. The 73/83/98 super nino's all had 3 year nina's that followed. It would make sense to have another nina this winter with move to nino in 2019.

View attachment 5617 View attachment 5618
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Please confess that this is all a Halloween trick or treat post sent a couple months early ... :eek:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
In all seriousness, thanks for sharing "page two" and "the rest of the story" as Paul Harvey used to say ... now let's see where JB takes this since it's a WB model run ... :cool:
 
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It looks like that we could go to Neutral this winter. If it goes back and forth for the next few months then Neutral it is.
 
pcbjr said:
Please confess that this is all a Halloween trick or treat post sent a couple months early ... :eek:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
In all seriousness, thanks for sharing "page two" and "the rest of the story" as Paul Harvey used to say ... now let's see where JB takes this since it's a WB model run ... :cool:
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Well the good news is if there is a nino it will be central based.
 
Snowfan said:
It looks like that we could go to Neutral this winter. If it goes back and forth for the next few months then Neutral it is.
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That's what I would think if the warming doesn't happen as much as we anticipate. I'll go with a warm-neutral to weak El-Nino either way this winter for now. No way we could get something strong or a weak La-Nina though if it cooled by winter we could get a cool-neutral. Not sure where that puts us statistically for probability of a good storm since it also relies on other variables such as basis of the ENSO, QBO. It's too early to talk about PNA, AO and NAO and we will just have to see what comes this year, though I bet we won't see a good stretch of -NAOs like we normally don't of course.
 
Kylo said:
Nino fail possibly. Cold pool in eastern tropical pac is expanding. The 73/83/98 super nino's all had 3 year nina's that followed. It would make sense to have another nina this winter with move to nino in 2019.

View attachment 5617 View attachment 5618
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I think the residual warm pool is too warm to allow for La Niña. I’m still leaning weak to low end moderate El Niño but could certainly see a warm neutral as a reasonable possibility, which would per climo stats reduce the chance of a cold SE winter. However, there has been a very cold warm neutral winter: 1935/6. Also, 1960/1 was pretty cold with quite cold Dec/Jan.
 
GaWx said:
I think the residual warm pool is too warm to allow for La Niña. I’m still leaning weak to low end moderate El Niño but could certainly see a warm neutral as a reasonable possibility, which would per climo stats reduce the chance of a cold SE winter. However, there has been a very cold warm neutral winter: 1935/6. Also, 1960/1 was pretty cold with quite cold Dec/Jan.
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I agree, don't see enough of a cold pool to go nina like last years failed nino. I definitely get the winter hype with central pac nino potential, low solar and descending eQBO.
 
GaWx said:
I think the residual warm pool is too warm to allow for La Niña. I’m still leaning weak to low end moderate El Niño but could certainly see a warm neutral as a reasonable possibility, which would per climo stats reduce the chance of a cold SE winter. However, there has been a very cold warm neutral winter: 1935/6. Also, 1960/1 was pretty cold with quite cold Dec/Jan.
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Yeah even a warm neutral winter would juice the subtropical jet a little more than normal there’s a pretty decent difference between warm neutral and weak Niño because the non linear feedbacks usually kick in right near the Niño threshold but 1935-36 is by far and away the coldest and snowiest winter in modern record keeping in NC with a whopping 26” for statewide avg snow. That’s almost 4x the long term average of ~ 7”. Other snowy warm neutral/weak Niño winters like 1904-05, 1911-12, 1913-14, 1914-15, 1958-59, 1968-69, 1976-77, 1977-78, 1979-80, 1986-87, 2003-04 were no slouch either. Of these aforementioned winters, I think 1979-80 likely gives 1935-36 the biggest run for its money esp in terms of snowfall, I don’t have the exact figures just yet, but soon enough I will :)
 
Today’s weekly update kept 3.4 at+0.3. More importantly, I see that OHC rose to a high for the year of near +1.00. That tells me that based on analogs that it is going to be difficult for there to not be El Niño as we proceed through this meteorological autumn. So, El Niño, despite the well forecasted pause til now, appears to be on track. Good news for cold winter chances based on climo, especially since it would be immediately following La Niña. Hopefully other things, like -NAO dominance, line up nicely to actually get us a cold winter.
 
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The rapid warming in 3.4 continues. Per Tidbits, 3.4 has warmed over 0.7 C in just 6 days! It is now at +0.665 C. In the years that I’ve been following this graph, I don’t recall seeing a more rapid warming in 3.4:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

This is the kind of move often seen in the much more volatile 1+2 due to its small size but certainly not in 3.4. The TAO buoys support that there has been warming:
https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/assorted_plots/images/sst_wind_5day_drupal.png

I’ll be surprised if Monday’s weekly release doesn’t show warming in 3.4 though sometimes those weeklies surprise me. One thing I’ll note that is keeping me from betting the ranch on the warming is that the Tidbits graph had been significantly cooler than the weeklies and TAO last week meaning some of this supposed rapid warming may really be just catching up to reality.
 
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The latest OHC release has it now warmer than +1.50 C! That is actually warm enough to not just support weak El Nino, but it even allows for a good chance for the rapidly building moderate El Nino that the newest UKMET has. Here's why I say that:

Oct OHC > +1/year/Nino strength
+2.56/1997/super
+2.07/1982/super
+1.91/2015/super
+1.72/2002/moderate
+1.50/2018/????
+1.41/1991/strong
+1.12/1994/moderate
+1.04/2009/strong
 
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GaWx said:
The latest OHC release has it now warmer than +1.50 C! That is actually warm enough to not just support weak El Nino, but it even allows for a good chance for the rapidly building moderate El Nino that the newest UKMET has. Here's why I say that:

Oct OHC > +1/year/Nino strength
+2.56/1997/super
+2.07/1982/super
+1.91/2015/super
+1.72/2002/moderate
+1.50/2018/????
+1.41/1991/strong
+1.12/1994/moderate
+1.04/2009/strong
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We don't want Mod right, for our snow chances?
 
accu35 said:
We don't want Mod right, for our snow chances?
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Mod has been just about as good as any El Nino for snow chances, themselves, at least based on Atlanta history. I'm not talking NC, AL, or any other place. However, weak ones have been on average colder. Some of the great SE cold winters of the past were during a weak Nino such as 1885-6, 1904-5, 1939-40, 1969-70, 1976-7, and 1977-8. At ATL, 1904-5 was wintry and 1939-40 very wintry while the other 4 were fairly dry with below average wintry. From what I've seen, I'd favor pretty good wintry for ATL and much of the SE if we get a cold one.

You don't need weak to get cold and wintry. 2009-10 says hi! Likely because it was Modoki?
 
GaWx said:
Mod has been just about as good as any El Nino for snow chances, themselves, at least based on Atlanta history. I'm not talking NC, AL, or any other place. However, weak ones have been on average colder. Some of the great SE cold winters of the past were during a weak Nino such as 1885-6, 1904-5, 1939-40, 1969-70, 1976-7, and 1977-8. At ATL, 1904-5 was wintry and 1939-40 very wintry while the other 4 were fairly dry with below average wintry. From what I've seen, I'd favor pretty good wintry for ATL and much of the SE if we get a cold one.

You don't need weak to get cold and wintry. 2009-10 says hi! Likely because it was Modoki?
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Thank you Larry, that makes everything much better now.
 
accu35 said:
Thank you Larry, that makes everything much better now.
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After some further analysis of the very warm OHC as shown above and when considering stronger forecasted 3.4 peaks on the UKMET and other models for this winter, I think it really is going to be difficult to end up with only a weak El Niño ONI peak this winter. And even a strong, which I had earlier given very low chance, now has to be given a higher chance than “very low”. Other opinions?

Oct OHC > +1/year/Nino strength
+2.56/1997/super
+2.07/1982/super
+1.91/2015/super
+1.72/2002/moderate
+1.50 and warming/2018/????
+1.41/1991/strong
+1.12/1994/moderate
+1.04/2009/strong
 
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GaWx said:
After some further analysis of the very warm OHC as shown above and when considering stronger forecasted 3.4 peaks on the UKMET and other models for this winter, I think it really is going to be difficult to end up with only a weak El Niño ONI peak this winter. And even a strong, which I had earlier given very low chance, now has to be given a higher chance than “very low”. Other opinions?

Oct OHC > +1/year/Nino strength
+2.56/1997/super
+2.07/1982/super
+1.91/2015/super
+1.72/2002/moderate
+1.50 and warming/2018/????
+1.41/1991/strong
+1.12/1994/moderate
+1.04/2009/strong
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I think I'd rather take my chances with Mod instead of a strong El NIno.... although a strong can lend itself to big dog snows if everything else lines up just right, from what I've read about the only thing you can count on in a strong el nino is wetter than normal.

As far as chances of strong v. mod.... I haven't a clue b/c I'm still reading/learning about ENSO but looking at the trends that all of you have been posting it certainly would seem strong has to be considered a real possibility at this time.
 
This was posted somewhere back I'm sure or has been mentioned but I'll put it here as it seems to sum it up nicely...

El Niño brings infrequent, but sometimes large snowstorms...


Feb1973snow.png

In contrast to rainfall, snowfall anomalies are not nearly as easy to predict during strong El Niño winters. During the El Niño winter of 1972-1973 the single largest snowfall ever seen in Florence and Columbia, SC occurred February 9-11, 1973. This was also the second-largest snowstorm on record in Wilmington, NC and Myrtle Beach, SC. Strong El Niños in 1991-1992 and 1997-1998 brought very little (if any) snowfall to the Carolinas. Nearly all stations reported below-normal or zero totals for those winters.

Even in a normal (non El Niño) winter snowfall statistics for the coastal Southeastern U.S. are -- strange. For example Wilmington's annual average snowfall is 1.6 inches. However snowfall statistics also show we average less than one measurable snow event per year. The standard deviation computed for Wilmington's historic snowfall events is much larger than the annual average!

Computing a simple average snowfall across the six previous strong El Niño winters shows above-normal totals all across the Carolinas. However this statistic is dominated by a small number of very large snowstorms, particularly during the winters of 1972-1973 and 1982-1983, which overwhelms the totals. El Niño does enhance the frequency of wintertime low pressure systems with heavy precipitation, a few of which may encounter cold enough air to produce snow across the Carolinas.
 

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metwannabe said:
This was posted somewhere back I'm sure or has been mentioned but I'll put it here as it seems to sum it up nicely...

El Niño brings infrequent, but sometimes large snowstorms...


Feb1973snow.png

In contrast to rainfall, snowfall anomalies are not nearly as easy to predict during strong El Niño winters. During the El Niño winter of 1972-1973 the single largest snowfall ever seen in Florence and Columbia, SC occurred February 9-11, 1973. This was also the second-largest snowstorm on record in Wilmington, NC and Myrtle Beach, SC. Strong El Niños in 1991-1992 and 1997-1998 brought very little (if any) snowfall to the Carolinas. Nearly all stations reported below-normal or zero totals for those winters.

Even in a normal (non El Niño) winter snowfall statistics for the coastal Southeastern U.S. are -- strange. For example Wilmington's annual average snowfall is 1.6 inches. However snowfall statistics also show we average less than one measurable snow event per year. The standard deviation computed for Wilmington's historic snowfall events is much larger than the annual average!

Computing a simple average snowfall across the six previous strong El Niño winters shows above-normal totals all across the Carolinas. However this statistic is dominated by a small number of very large snowstorms, particularly during the winters of 1972-1973 and 1982-1983, which overwhelms the totals. El Niño does enhance the frequency of wintertime low pressure systems with heavy precipitation, a few of which may encounter cold enough air to produce snow across the Carolinas.
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So in a strong El Niño we need all the pieces to get the snow and usually it’s one big one otherwise we bust?
 
That's kind of my interpretation of the relatively small sample size as well but I don't think it's all or nothing. There certainly can be mediocre winter events it just looks to me like there's no clear tendency one way or the other.
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
So in a strong El Niño we need all the pieces to get the snow and usually it’s one big one otherwise we bust?
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Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
metwannabe said:
That's kind of my interpretation of the relatively small sample size as well but I don't think it's all or nothing. There certainly can be mediocre winter events it just looks to me like there's no clear tendency one way or the other.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
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Here's the same analysis with more than double the amount of samples using pre-1950 ENSO data via my ENS ONI index.
Each red/blue color increment represents a difference of 0.5, 1.0, & > 2 sigma from the available NINO samples.

El Nino winters generally tend to slightly favor the piedmont and mountains if anything, there's some noise in the coastal plain and coastal areas like Wilmington. Charlotte actually averages more snow in strong-super El Ninos than Raleigh does, again hinting at this underlying favorability to the piedmont & mountains. We're clearly headed into a weak-moderate El Nino this year so I could do a similar analysis with even more samples and see if any discernible signal emerges, likely will be a muddled one if anything in the west-central piedmont and mountains.

Screen Shot 2018-10-17 at 2.42.35 PM.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Here's the same analysis with more than double the amount of samples using pre-1950 ENSO data via my ENS ONI index.
Each red/blue color increment represents a difference of 0.5, 1.0, & > 2 sigma from the available NINO samples.

El Nino winters generally tend to slightly favor the piedmont and mountains if anything, there's some noise in the coastal plain and coastal areas like Wilmington. Charlotte actually averages more snow in strong-super El Ninos than Raleigh does, again hinting at this underlying favorability to the piedmont & mountains. We're clearly headed into a weak-moderate El Nino this year so I could do a similar analysis with even more samples and see if any discernible signal emerges, likely will be a muddled one if anything in the west-central piedmont and mountains.

View attachment 7028
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Don't you think some of those averages may be skewed by some less occurring but very significant winter storms? It just seems to me that the one constant with mod to strong el nino's is a wetter than average pattern and temps are a little bit more of a crap shoot. I'm wondering if, even in the more favored western areas, that saw big totals in El Nino years was just one or two big dog events because of more juice up atmosphere. Just thinking out loud here....

While the number of above average outweigh the below average in that chart, in those below average years there are a lot of goose eggs
 
metwannabe said:
Don't you think some of those averages may be skewed by some less occurring but very significant winter storms? It just seems to me that the one constant with mod to strong el nino's is a wetter than average pattern and temps are a little bit more of a crap shoot. I'm wondering if, even in the more favored western areas, that saw big totals in El Nino years was just one or two big dog events because of more juice up atmosphere. Just thinking out loud here....

While the number of above average outweigh the below average in that chart, in those below average years there are a lot of goose eggs
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They’re definitely skewed, the climatological seasonal snowfall distribution in the coastal plain and coastal areas is logarithmic, generally satisfying the Zipfian distribution where about 80% or so of the total snowfall for a given area occurs in about (or less than) the top 20% of winters, it partially explains why we don’t see much of signal outside the piedmont and mountains but as you go further NW towards areas like the Triad and Asheville, we usually see several events per year many of which are moderate or large. A majority of the big winters snowfall-wise around here even in the good ol days usually feature one maybe two “massive” snowstorms and a couple moderately sized events. 1935-36 is a very notable exception to this stereotypical behavior in big winters w/ a parade of several moderate-large winter storms annihilating NC east of the mountains & producing a statewide mean above 25” or about 3.5-4x the long term average.
 
Give me a super suppressed pattern and I’ll take my chances. I’d rather have a swing and a miss LP tracking across central/south Florida than a coastal scraper with borderline temps. Let’s get that STJ pumping in Mid December and ride it til the bitter end
 
Webberweather53 said:
They’re definitely skewed, the climatological seasonal snowfall distribution in the coastal plain and coastal areas is logarithmic, generally satisfying the Zipfian distribution where about 80% or so of the total snowfall for a given area occurs in about (or less than) the top 20% of winters, it partially explains why we don’t see much of signal outside the piedmont and mountains but as you go further NW towards areas like the Triad and Asheville, we usually see several events per year many of which are moderate or large. A majority of the big winters snowfall-wise around here even in the good ol days usually feature one maybe two “massive” snowstorms and a couple moderately sized events. 1935-36 is a very notable exception to this stereotypical behavior in big winters w/ a parade of several moderate-large winter storms annihilating NC east of the mountains & producing a statewide mean above 25” or about 3.5-4x the long term average.
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I think I'm picking up what you're dropping down haha. Basically maybe some would say I'm being a Debbie Downer or don't know what I'm talking about, which the latter is quite possible. I'm playing Devil's Advocate or just being a realist but in my humble opinion an El Nino basically says I'm supplying the fuel but the rest of the players need to step up to close the deal.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
metwannabe said:
I think I'm picking up what you're dropping down haha. Basically maybe some would say I'm being a Debbie Downer or don't know what I'm talking about, which the latter is quite possible. I'm playing Devil's Advocate or just being a realist but in my humble opinion an El Nino basically says I'm supplying the fuel but the rest of the players need to step up to close the deal.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
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substitute "fuel" for "beer and shrimp" and you got it nailed ... :D
 
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