Oh and by the way, JB thinks that the La Niña is about to end.
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Latest update has went down to -0.6 C.
It was -0.6 in last week's report. Today's report has it down slightly to -0.7.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Subsurface anomalies are clearly headed in the direction of neutral ENSO as a downwelling kelvin wave cross the EQ Pacific, it may take a while for the surface to respond. Regardless, just wait til you see the next oceanic Kelvin wave this WWB generates.
Region 3.4 in today's report, which is the average for last calendar week, dropped from -0.7 to -0.9 interestingly enough.
Today’s update cooled to -0.9 C.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The clock is ticking for when this downwelling Kelvin Wave will appear over the West Pacific in response to this intense and prolonged WWB over the central EQ Pacific. It usually takes about 2 months or so for an oceanic Kelvin Wave to traverse the entire length of the Pacific and reach the eastern boundary region (South America) so we wouldn't begin to feel the sensible impacts of this KW until we are closing in on April at the earliest, if not later. Even then, it will likely take some time for the atmosphere to respond thereafter. The Kelvin Wave that formed in the WP back in November and early December has already reached the East Pac, the subsurface heat content is near normal and this KW should take some of the bite out of this La Niña
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
"The majority of ENSO events in both nature and the coupled model are preceded by MM (Pacific meridional mode) events."
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2008JCLI2473.1
Evidence is certainly beginning to mount in favor of El Nino but we have a long ways to go.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
To add onto this, this particular study generally found that about from observations and NWP models, approximately 2/3rds of all El Ninos were preceded by a positive Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) event. This past January's PMM value set a new all-time record high and was almost the highest for any month in the historical record. I'm not saying that an El Nino is going to happen, but in combination w/ the MJO, we are literally doing everything right to set ourselves up for one next year. We'll have to see if we keep this up thru the spring predictability barrier.
Doesn't get more classic than this.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here comes our big Kelvin Wave, notice the thermocline suppression in the West Pacific at the end of the animation
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is just to reinforce what I was saying earlier, coming from one of the very distinguished experts on the MJO.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is just pure insanity, the MJO has spent about 10 days already in the Western Pacific with amplitude of at least 3.5-4 sigma, this will be the final nail in the coffin for our La Niña
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This current WWB sticks out like a sore thumb.
Even that modest WWB in mid December was able to trigger a oceanic KW w/ 5C anomalies along the thermocline, it dampened however thanks in large part to the huge easterly trade wind surge that followed not to mention the seasonal base state wasn't as favorable as it is now. I can only imagine how large this next Kelvin Wave is going to be.
Even that modest WWB in mid December was able to trigger a oceanic KW w/ 5C anomalies along the thermocline, it dampened however thanks in large part to the huge easterly trade wind surge that followed not to mention the seasonal base state wasn't as favorable as it is now. I can only imagine how large this next Kelvin Wave is going to be.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Updated CPC subsurface analysis, uh oh here comes the big downwelling kelvin wave in the WP
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Klaus Wolter is also starting to come on board for an El Nino later this year.
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Another pretty stout WWB near the dateline is looming on the horizon by day 4 according to the GFS which would only further augment the downwelling Kelvin Wave in the WP.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This February's SOI is going to be one of the most negative non-El Nino values we've ever observed in the last century and a half. We're running at -17 for the month, some positive values should begin to appear the last few days of the month but it's most likely gonna be too little too late
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here comes our beastly Kelvin Wave as promised
MichaelJ
Member
Looking like we could have a weak to moderate El Nino this summer
Surprisingly, 3.4 cooled slightly again and is now down to -1.1, which is tied for the coldest weekly, which was last set in the fall. So, based on this, we're still in moderate La Nina territory.
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According to the latest CPC report: they said that the La Niña will end between Now and May and after that neutral conditions for the rest of the year.
More details:http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
More details:http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
Clayton
Member
Oh snap! I just saw an ENSO update from the Australian Bureau and the La Nina has already ended! That was QUICK! I didn't expect it to end THIS fast! I thought it would be later on in spring, but I guess not haha. Amazing how the MJO, Kelvin Wave, and WWB literally obliterated this La Nina in a matter of weeks when it was just at moderate levels! @GaWx @Webberweather53
Today’s CPC update has the Nino 3.4 at -0.7 C.
Today’s CPC update has it cooling to -0.8 C.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
This La Nina doesn't want to give up? Wonder when it will decide to warm up. If we don't get it to an El Nino by hurricane season I think we are in trouble again.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave that was generated by the big MJO burst in February has entered the eastern Pacific and a slackening of the trades the next few weeks due to the MJO propagating into the WP and W Hem should aid in its continued maintenance and/or growth when it reaches the eastern boundary region in a 2-3 weeks or so. This La Nina will come to a screeching halt in short order.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Latest 3.4 update has it at -0.4 C. La Niña is nearing its end.
The UW based PDO went negative (barely) for the first time in over 4 years in March:
http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest
http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here comes downwelling kelvin wave #2 in the CP (between about 180-160W) triggered by week after week of near surface anomalous westerlies and convergence around and just west of the dateline. We're taking yet another step towards putting ourselves in position to get an El Nino later this year and/or in 2019.
An equatorial Rossby Wave (evidenced by the solid red contours depicted in Carl Schreck's algorithm in the 2nd picture below) will generate another surge in westerlies and near surface convergence in the Central Pacific even though most of the tropical forcing is currently over the Indian Ocean/Maritime Continent (and would argue for basin-wide easterlies over the Pacific). This is part of the favorable forcing for an El Nino I alluded to weeks ago that would probably be prevalent this year w/ the raging +PMM that's dominating the Pacific.
An equatorial Rossby Wave (evidenced by the solid red contours depicted in Carl Schreck's algorithm in the 2nd picture below) will generate another surge in westerlies and near surface convergence in the Central Pacific even though most of the tropical forcing is currently over the Indian Ocean/Maritime Continent (and would argue for basin-wide easterlies over the Pacific). This is part of the favorable forcing for an El Nino I alluded to weeks ago that would probably be prevalent this year w/ the raging +PMM that's dominating the Pacific.
pcbjr
Member
Thanks, but I don't even understand thunderstorms in July when the are building out of the Gulf and the Atlantic and kissing IMBY ...
The latest 3.4 update warmed to -0.2 C.
Last year I got fooled and thought we were going to get El Nino. Am I ready to make a prediction for this year? After last year's early summer debacle and with it not even being May yet, I'm not ready. There is such a thing as the spring unpredictablity barrier for ENSO.
But I have been reading @Webberweather53 posts that are suggesting El Nino this time and he wasn't at all gung ho last year on El Nino like I was. Also, look at the OHC image below. It shows OHC already up to +0.9 and still rising. Based on history even though it is far from perfect and sometimes can be far off as well as lead to a fakkeout like happened in spring of 1993, that often gives us an idea of where the trimonthly peak in Nino 3.4 (ONI) is headed later in the year. ...i.e., at least a weak Nino MAY be on the way. Also, note that during last year's El Nino fake-out, the ONI peaked at only +0.4, which is where the ONI happened to peak.
But I have been reading @Webberweather53 posts that are suggesting El Nino this time and he wasn't at all gung ho last year on El Nino like I was. Also, look at the OHC image below. It shows OHC already up to +0.9 and still rising. Based on history even though it is far from perfect and sometimes can be far off as well as lead to a fakkeout like happened in spring of 1993, that often gives us an idea of where the trimonthly peak in Nino 3.4 (ONI) is headed later in the year. ...i.e., at least a weak Nino MAY be on the way. Also, note that during last year's El Nino fake-out, the ONI peaked at only +0.4, which is where the ONI happened to peak.
pcbjr
Member
Larry,
You may or may not be wrong or right, but one thing is for damn sure, you are about the most honest, humble and candid person I've ever had the pleasure to deal with on any level.
Thanks!
Best,
Phil
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Thanks Larry, yeah my selling points this year early on were the development of a monster +PMM this past winter and the fact that ENSO history since the mid 19th century shows that El Ninos have occurred within 3 years of a Super event, and most La Ninas typically last 2 years (even if they’re separated by a period of attenuation like last year with the El Nino attempt). Other things have come together and the evolution seems to be following very closely in line with weak or moderate El Ninos that develop in the summer or fall. There’s certainly potential we could pull off the trifecta this upcoming winter and have a weak-moderate El Nino, easterly QBO, and very low solar activity that often accompany very cold/snowy blockbuster eastern US winters like 2009-10 (although this year was fantastic in the SE US in its own right)
The latest 3.4 update warmed to 0.0 C..
^Yes, indeed, today's update shows a warming of Niño 3.4 from -0.2 to 0.0. Meanwhile, it also shows the subsurface having topped for now with a very slight cooling back from +0.9 to +0.8. As we go through the next few months, it will be interesting to see whether or not further significant subsurface warming resumes since that often is a precursor to what the 3.4 surface, itself, does. As it stands now, the subsurface, itself, is already favoring further warming of the 3.4 surface over the next couple of months, overall, and weak El Niño by late summer wouldn't at all be a surprise.
Edit: We've had 5 weeks in a row of Nino 3.4 warming. The record longest # of weeks in a row of warming going back to 1990 is only 7 (May-July 2003) and there have been only a couple of 6 week warming streaks. So, just based on stats, the warming should shortly cease at least temporarily.
Edit: We've had 5 weeks in a row of Nino 3.4 warming. The record longest # of weeks in a row of warming going back to 1990 is only 7 (May-July 2003) and there have been only a couple of 6 week warming streaks. So, just based on stats, the warming should shortly cease at least temporarily.
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From Joe Bastardi today fwiw: he's calling for a Modoki El Niño. From what he's tweeted recently, he's already thinking this will help lead to a cold E US winter.
I'm just a messenger. Maybe he'll be right. Maybe not. What I do know is that IF there were to be a weak to lower end moderate El Niño, that statistically would give the best chance for a cold SE winter ENSOwise though it would far from guarantee that. A -NAO in combination with it would help more and a +PDO with those two would help even more.
I'm just a messenger. Maybe he'll be right. Maybe not. What I do know is that IF there were to be a weak to lower end moderate El Niño, that statistically would give the best chance for a cold SE winter ENSOwise though it would far from guarantee that. A -NAO in combination with it would help more and a +PDO with those two would help even more.