• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern ENSO Updates

Webberweather53 said:
Not so fast... There's also very strong evidence that another failed event occurred in the spring and summer of 1932 which like 1993-94 faded to a warm neutral event by the boreal winter. In fact, using an experimental extended MEI index (MEI.ext) w/ COBE SST2 and HADSLP2 (which utilizes some of the adjustments I implemented in the NCEP-NCAR MEI, most notably 30-year sliding base periods that remove the long term warming signal in the data), I note that the MEI bi-monthly values virtually exceeded 1.0 for 4 successive bi-monthly periods from Mar-Apr 1932 thru Jun-Jul 1932...

Here's a bi-monthly MEI value table for Mar-Apr thru Jun-Jul with the latter (2017) adjusted w/ a 30-year sliding base period as was done in the COBE SST2+HADSLP2 MEI.ext index to remove the warming signal in the data... Note the sliding base period adjustment results in a very significant decrease in the recent bi monthly MEI.ext values, with 2017 potentially showing even less evidence for an El Nino than both 1993 and 1932...
Bi-Monthly Period Mar-Apr Apr-May May-Jun Jun-Jul MEI Index
Year
1932 1.117 1.079 0.968 1.008 COBE SST2+HADSLP2 MEI.ext
1993 1.218 1.421 1.141 0.786 COBE SST2+HADSLP2 MEI.ext
2017 0.621 1.195 0.453 ??? ICOADS (Original MEI)
Click to expand...

Interestingly both 1932 and 1993, like this year came on the first full year removed from a preceding strong-super El Nino event (1930-31, 1991-92, and 2015-16) and failed to produce an El Nino in the subsequent winter despite exhibiting signs of an oncoming NINO in the spring and summer... I'm not saying we should automatically expect a similar result but this is very peculiar statistic that has some physical backing...
 
Last edited:
Webberweather53 said:
Interestingly both 1932 and 1993, like this year came on the first full year removed from a preceding strong-super El Nino event (1930-31, 1991-92, and 2015-16) and failed to produce an El Nino in the subsequent winter despite exhibiting signs of an oncoming NINO in the spring and summer... I'm not saying we should automatically expect a similar result but this is very peculiar statistic that has some physical backing...
Click to expand...
Good info as usual.... so do we start looking toward winter 2018/19? Lol
 
GaWx said:
OK, but there's no need to get snappy about it. I was looking at an official MEI table that went back only to 1950:

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html
Click to expand...

?? I wasn't getting snappy... Btw there's nothing "official" about that MEI index lol... I went to AMS in seattle and presented my work on an ensemble MEI/ONI index and talked with Klaus Wolter (who runs that index in real-time) and he like myself essentially said the index is becoming defunct and could use some serious revisions and upgrades and immediate application to climate models, etc.
 
Is it going to snow or not???LOL thats the main question for us southerns.
 
accu35 said:
Is it going to snow or not???LOL thats the main question for us southerns.
Click to expand...

My educated guess is no accumulation of snow for Phil and me, but we live where most years don't get it even during cold winters. However, a super cold SE outbreak does at least increase the chance for that rarity such as occurred at both places in 1989, 1977, and 1899 as well as in SAV in 1893 and 1895. SAV gets 0.1"+ of SN or IP 1 time every 5-6 years on avg. and 1"+ every 14 years on avg. The last 1"+ was in 1989. Decades with a documented storm having 1"+ of SN: 1980's (3), 1970's (2), 1960's (1), 1950's (1), 1890's (3), 1850's (2), 1830's (1+), 1800's (1+), 1740's (1). A few others in mid 1700's to early 1800's probably occurred based on CHS but finding documentation is tough. Decades with documented 0.5"+ IP and/or major ZR: 1 in each of 1930's, 1920's, 1910's. Of the 13 storms with sig wintry since the 1890's, only 4 were during El Niño, which is only about the same proportion as the % of winters with El Niño. 2 were during strong & 2 were during weak.
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
My educated guess is no accumulation of snow for Phil and me, but we live where most years don't get it even during cold winters. However, a super cold SE outbreak does at least increase the chance for that rarity such as occurred at both places in 1989, 1977, and 1899 as well as in SAV in 1893 and 1895. SAV gets 0.1"+ of SN or IP 1 time every 5-6 years on avg. and 1"+ every 14 years on avg. The last 1"+ was in 1989. Decades with a documented storm having 1"+ of SN: 1980's (3), 1970's (2), 1960's (1), 1950's (1), 1890's (3), 1850's (2), 1830's (1+), 1800's (1+), 1740's (1). A few others in mid 1700's to early 1800's probably occurred based on CHS but finding documentation is tough. Decades with documented 0.5"+ IP and/or major ZR: 1 in each of 1930's, 1920's, 1910's. Of the 13 storms with sig wintry since the 1890's, only 4 were during El Niño, which is only about the same proportion as the % of winters with El Niño. 2 were during strong & 2 were during weak.
Click to expand...

Larry,
What was 1899?
Phil

I'm resigned, but did voluntarily choose this lazy summer home ...

no-snow-for.jpg
 
GaWx said:
My educated guess is no accumulation of snow for Phil and me, but we live where most years don't get it even during cold winters. However, a super cold SE outbreak does at least increase the chance for that rarity such as occurred at both places in 1989, 1977, and 1899 as well as in SAV in 1893 and 1895. SAV gets 0.1"+ of SN or IP 1 time every 5-6 years on avg. and 1"+ every 14 years on avg. The last 1"+ was in 1989. Decades with a documented storm having 1"+ of SN: 1980's (3), 1970's (2), 1960's (1), 1950's (1), 1890's (3), 1850's (2), 1830's (1+), 1800's (1+), 1740's (1). A few others in mid 1700's to early 1800's probably occurred based on CHS but finding documentation is tough. Decades with documented 0.5"+ IP and/or major ZR: 1 in each of 1930's, 1920's, 1910's. Of the 13 storms with sig wintry since the 1890's, only 4 were during El Niño, which is only about the same proportion as the % of winters with El Niño. 2 were during strong & 2 were during weak.
Click to expand...
Wow!! Thanks man. Im regionally from Florida my self and its very hard to get snow there. I think a few times i seen accumulation snow growing up. One i believe in 1996, 7 hrs of snow but never stuck until the last 30 min of the event. A few other time ive seen sleet/snow but barley. Where i live at now in southwest Alabama, i seen more winter events than the gulf coast due to the away from the salted warm ocean prob has something to due with it. Im in area where i can get from winterstorm to hurricanes.
 
accu35 said:
Wow!! Thanks man. Im regionally from Florida my self and its very hard to get snow there. I think a few times i seen accumulation snow growing up. One i believe in 1996, 7 hrs of snow but never stuck until the last 30 min of the event. A few other time ive seen sleet/snow but barley. Where i live at now in southwest Alabama, i seen more winter events than the gulf coast due to the away from the salted warm ocean prob has something to due with it. Im in area where i can get from winterstorm to hurricanes.
Click to expand...
Lived through a snow'cane once - in South Bend, Indiana ... was awesome.
http://www.southbendtribune.com/mul...ion_b7f1f4c0-8cf2-11e3-a196-001a4bcf6878.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Blizzard_of_1978
 
pcbjr said:
Larry,
What was 1899?
Phil
Click to expand...
Weak La Nina.

ENSO peak for the fall/winter for the 13 most significant winter events since the 1890s at SAV:

12/1989: N
2/1989: SLN
3/1986: N
1/1977: WEN
2/1973: SEN
2/1968: WLN
2/1958: SEN
2/1934: MLN
1/1922: N
2/1914: WEN
2/1899: WLN
2/1895: WLN
1/1893: MLN to SLN

- So, 4 EN, 3 N, 6 LN...so nothing clearcut ENSOwise though the sample isn't large.
- Of these 13 winters at SAV, only 1976-7, 1967-8, 1957-8, 1894-5 cold; Near normal: 1985-6, 1972-3, 1933-4, 1913-4, 1898-9, 1892-3; Warm: 1989-90, 1988-9, 1921-2. So, only 4 cold, 6 normal, 3 warm.
- For the 3 biggest storms at GNV, 1 SLN, 1 WEN, 1 WLN; 1 cold, 1 norm, 1 warm
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
Weak La Nina.

ENSO peak for the fall/winter for the 13 most significant winter events since the 1890s at SAV:

12/1989: N
2/1989: SLN
3/1986: N
1/1977: WEN
2/1973: SEN
2/1968: WLN
2/1958: SEN
2/1934: MLN
1/1922: N
2/1914: WEN
2/1899: WLN
2/1894: WLN
1/1893: MLN to SLN

- So, 4 EN, 3 N, 6 LN...so nothing clearcut ENSOwise though the sample isn't large.
- Of these 13 winters at SAV, only 1976-7, 1967-8, 1957-8 cold; Near normal: 1985-6, 1972-3, 1933-4, 1913-4, 1898-9, 1892-3; Warm: 1989-90, 1988-9, 1921-2. So, only 3 cold, 6 normal, 3 warm.
- For the 3 biggest storms at GNV, 1 SLN, 1 WEN, 1 WLN; 1 cold, 1 norm, 1 warm
Click to expand...
Speaks volumes, and thanks!
 
pcbjr said:
Speaks volumes, and thanks!
Click to expand...

YW. Yeah, it means there's no historical based evidence that having El Niño does anything to increase winter storm chances in our Deep South locations. Also, even having a cold winter doesn't appear to matter much in our areas even though they normally occur when it gets quite cold at least for a few days thus allowing for a far south storm track/cold enough. Therefore, my talking about a good chance for El Niño has zero to do with my desire to see a major winter storm since there's no evidence of a correlation in my area though it appears to help, especially if strong enough, in areas much further inland for major SN chances like ATL. It is not based on a personal bias. It is based on cold hard data/facts, which is my normal way of analyzing.
 
GaWx said:
YW. Yeah, it means there's no historical based evidence that having El Niño does anything to increase winter storm chances in our Deep South locations. Also, even having a cold winter doesn't appear to matter much in our areas even though they normally occur when it gets quite cold at least for a few days thus allowing for a far south storm track/cold enough. Therefore, my talking about a good chance for El Niño has zero to do with my desire to see a major winter storm since there's no evidence of a correlation in my area though it appears to help, especially if strong enough, in areas much further inland for major SN chances like ATL. It is not based on a personal bias. It is based on cold hard data/facts, which is my normal way of analyzing.
Click to expand...
I hate to take up bandwidth, but this is worth 10 or more likes - so here they are! ;)

+++++++++++ ++++++
 
SOI is leaning towards (most days) positive for the next 2 weeks. July will end up + barring something unseen. That doesn't mean I'm saying Niño cancel but it does decrease chances some from the very good chances I've been mentioning.
 
GaWx said:
SOI is leaning towards (most days) positive for the next 2 weeks. July will end up + barring something unseen. That doesn't mean I'm saying Niño cancel but it does decrease chances some from the very good chances I've been mentioning.
Click to expand...
Honestly love candor. Such a rare commodity.
Thanks, Larry!
 
GaWx said:
YW. Yeah, it means there's no historical based evidence that having El Niño does anything to increase winter storm chances in our Deep South locations. Also, even having a cold winter doesn't appear to matter much in our areas even though they normally occur when it gets quite cold at least for a few days thus allowing for a far south storm track/cold enough. Therefore, my talking about a good chance for El Niño has zero to do with my desire to see a major winter storm since there's no evidence of a correlation in my area though it appears to help, especially if strong enough, in areas much further inland for major SN chances like ATL. It is not based on a personal bias. It is based on cold hard data/facts, which is my normal way of analyzing.
Click to expand...
I know its very hard to get any frozen stuff where you and phil are, but hey theres always a chance. Just like south Florida freak snow they had several years back in Jan 19,1977. The day it snowed in Miami with a dusting of light snow on palm trees, grass and other hard surfaces. Not used to being seen but to know theres always a freak chance, especially little further up to north Florida. As for my area and places like Birmingham, Alt, Huntsville and Tn we have better chances because were so far inland. Good post Larry.
 
Ok, I've seen enough model runs. Consistent with my recent posts, I'm now predicting near +7 for the full July SOI with a range of +5 to +9. This is based on a rough estimate of +11 for 7/17-31 combined with +3 for 7/1-16.

I'll need to reexamine my analogs. This will likely mean I reduce the Niño chance slightly from "very good" to "good" in deference to El Niño "cancel" analogs like 1932, 1993, and 2012 considering this month's rather solid +SOI combined with the continued model lean toward neutral positive. However, because the monthly SOI is often jumpy in summer in oncoming weak Niño years, Niño 3.4 is still in weak Niño range should it remain near there for several more months, and that same model consensus was too cool for June, I'm not likely to yet go anywhere near "Niño cancel".

As far as my 1"+ snow chances this winter, this doesn't change anything as it is still near the longterm average of 7% in my mind.
 
The failed NINO winter of 1932-33 is definitely a good example of what Larry was talking about wrt the modest correlation between major southern US winter storms and average wintertime temperatures...

I just finished my analysis of this big dog from mid December 1932 in NC...

December 16-17 1932 NC Snowmap.png

January 13-14 1933 NC Snowmap.png

cd2606-a000-5084-66f0-842b-b2-5cda-9dbe.197.15.52.42.prcp.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top